Chapter 225: If it's time to let go, you have to let go
Feng Xiaochen had already heard the hesitation in his heart from Zhang Lubin's tone, so he said calmly: "Chief Engineer Zhang, do you think there is still hope for P15?"
"If civil aviation ......" Zhang Lubin said a few words, he couldn't go on. Pen & Fun & Pavilion www.biquge.info
Feng Xiaochen didn't beat around the bush, but said bluntly: "In fact, you also know it very well in your heart. Even if civil aviation is willing to accept the P15, the P15 will not have a future. The annual order of civil aviation is two or three, even taking into account the improvement of the country's economic level and the increase in demand for aircraft in the future, in the next ten years, civil aviation can purchase no more than 50 aircraft. How far can you go with an order for just 50 aircraft?"
"If there were 50 of them, we would have survived. Zhang Lubin said. He is really not as optimistic as Feng Xiaochen, according to his calculations, the civil aviation department can purchase 20 aircraft in the next 10 years, which is already very good, and there are orders for 20 aircraft, which is enough for Pufei to maintain the existing production.
Feng Xiaochen asked mercilessly: "Chief Engineer Zhang, is the purpose of our P15 to survive? The United States has Boeing and McDonnell Douglas, and Europe has Airbus, and the annual output of these companies is several hundred, and we can build one or two planes a year, how much technology can we accumulate, and what kind of competitive advantage can we form, so that after 10 or 20 years of manufacturing, once we leave the protection of the state, will you be able to compete with Boeing and Airbus in the international market?"
"This ......" Zhang Lubin was speechless, Feng Xiaochen's questions were really something he couldn't answer.
"Xiao Feng, you can't say that......" Xue Ducang saw that Zhang Lubin was a little embarrassed, and hurriedly spoke out to play a round.
"Xiao Xue, I think what Xiao Feng said makes sense. Meng Fanze said slowly beside him, "Speaking of which, it's not the first time I've heard Xiao Feng mention this concept, he said something similar when I first discussed the MT25 mining excavator with him." Those of us who like to settle political accounts think that being able to build a product is a victory. Xiao Feng is different from us, he calculates the economic account, is the account of international competition, in his opinion, if there is no international competitiveness, this product is a failure. ”
"That's right, that's my opinion. Feng Xiaochen said, "If we have spent a lot of effort to make a product, we must rely on the protection of the state to survive, as long as we lose protection, we will be beaten to the ground by foreign products, then what is the value of such products for us?"
Xue Ducang retorted: "Xiao Feng, you can't say that, we are originally a developing country, and it is inevitable that our technology is somewhat backward compared with foreign countries. If it is not as high as the level of foreign countries, it should not be developed, so why should we build major equipment ourselves?"
Feng Xiaochen said: "We have been aiming at the international advanced level from the very beginning when we are engaged in major equipment. In the initial stage, we can protect our products, and even take some means to obtain advanced technology from abroad to improve the technical content of our own products. But all these measures are aimed at enabling our products to enter the international market in the future, rather than protecting a product forever. ”
"Then how do you know that Chief Engineer Zhang's P15 will not be able to gradually improve and eventually reach the international advanced level?" Xue Ducang said. Feng Xiaochen said these truths, Xue Ducang both supported and opposed, and he couldn't say what was wrong, but it was a little difficult to accept.
In fact, not to mention Xue Ducang alone, many cadres in that era had similar confusion. For many years, everyone has been accustomed to self-reliance, and always feels that only what they can create is the most down-to-earth. But after opening the door to the country, I found that the things I had been proud of for so many years were simply unsightly compared with foreign advanced products. If you follow this path, you will only be thrown further and further away by others, and you will not have any hope of catching up with others.
During this period of time, there are not a few people who are disappointed in China's future, and of course, more people are holding their breath in their hearts, hoping to finally achieve a leap forward by learning from advanced foreign experience and adding ten or a hundred times the sweat.
Feng Xiaochen understands the mentality of these people, and he is more optimistic than others because he is a traverser, and he really sees the era of China's comprehensive industrial revitalization. It is precisely because of this that he has more patience than Meng Fanze, Xue Ducang and others. 30 years may be too long for a person's life, but compared to the rise of a country, it is just a white horse.
"I believe that one day China will have its own big planes, and it will be able to compete with Boeing and Airbus. But that's not something that can be done now, or in the next 10 or 20 years. The reason is very simple, our country has no money, and we do not have enough industrial base. Feng Xiaochen looked at Zhang Lubin and said seriously.
Feng Xiaochen's words were not said out of thin air. In real history, it was almost all of Europe that the European Union developed Airbus. For the first decade, Airbus was in a loss-making state, surviving on EU subsidies and nearly bringing down the entire EU. The European Union, which has deep pockets, is still like this, with China's strength back then, how much money can it smash into such a bottomless pit as a big plane?
Zhang Lubin sat there and didn't move, but Feng Xiaochen could clearly feel that the force that supported his will suddenly disappeared. His body went limp, and if he didn't have the back of his chair, he might even slide to the ground. His eyes also lost their sparkle, as if they had aged much at once.
"Director Feng is right, actually...... We should have accepted this outcome from the beginning. Zhang Lubin muttered.
"What is the result?" Xue Ducang asked.
Zhang Lubin raised his head, smiled reluctantly, and said, "What Director Feng just said, I thought of it 10 years ago. Large aircraft are the pinnacle of industrial technology, and it needs a strong industrial base and a large amount of capital to support it. The United States has Boeing and McDonnell Douglas, and Europe has Airbus, all because their industrial level has reached such a level, and at the same time, their economic level is very high, and the civil aviation industry is developed, which can provide sufficient demand.
Our country has only been able to build a large industry for 30 years. With such a short period of accumulation, it is completely self-sufficient to build a large passenger plane with others.
Do you know that in the process of manufacturing the first two P15s, we even had to go to various places to find a qualified bolt, saying that it was a national effort, but in fact it was still overstretched. As Director Feng said, the large aircraft created in this way has no international competitiveness at all. The Civil Aviation Authority's refusal to accept our planes is a responsible attitude towards the country and the people, and we really have no right to complain. ”
"Xiao Zhang, you can't say that. Meng Fanze couldn't stand it anymore, and he said: "The successful test flight of the P15 large aircraft is still of great significance to our country's aviation industry. I have read the relevant work brief, and some of the technologies formed during the development of the P15 are of great value to the aviation industry as a whole, and to the development of military aircraft in particular. ”
Zhang Lubin smiled self-deprecatingly and said: "We have spent six or seven billion yuan on the country, if we don't take out anything at all, won't it become a waste." But ask yourself, the gains outweigh the losses. If this money is spent directly on more promising projects, the results that can be achieved are far greater than they are now. ”
These things in the industrial circle cannot be seen through by outsiders, but people inside are actually very clear. As an aviation expert, Zhang Lubin does not know what kind of problems exist in the P15, and where does he not understand what kind of investment is needed to make a truly competitive large aircraft, and what kind of supporting system.
Due to the lack of sufficient financial support, many parts of the P15 were produced by executive order, with the assistance of companies in other systems. These companies do not have the quality control system required by the aviation industry, and they just piece together a spare part according to the requirements of the drawings and hand it over. During the test flight of the P15's No. 02 aircraft, I don't know how many quality problems occurred, Zhang Lubin himself almost became a firefighting captain, constantly dealing with these problems.
If the P15 continues, this pattern will not change. A prototype can be manufactured in this way, and all kinds of problems are allowed to arise during the test flight process, and when it is really time to submit the finished product to the civil aviation, can it still be made up in this way? The civil aircraft is to carry hundreds of passengers to the sky, and the quality problems cannot be guaranteed, does he Zhang Lubin dare to let such an aircraft leave the factory?
"That's it, that's it, I'm sorry that Zhang Lubin has also been working in aviation for almost 30 years, and my knowledge is not as good as ...... Director Feng is such a young man. Director Feng, thank you for your advice, I figured it out, P15 should be dismounted, we should let go. Zhang Lubin said in a tragic tone.
"That'...... It's a pity, isn't it?" Xue Ducang said. After all, this is also a big project, it took more than ten years and invested hundreds of millions of dollars, and it is indeed a pity to give up like this.
Zhang Lubin said awe-inspiringly: "A strong man breaks his wrist, he has to let go, and we can't waste the country's funds for personal honor and disgrace." ”
"In the past two years, the country has engaged in economic adjustment, and you are not the only project that has been abandoned. Meng Fanze said in a deep voice, "Rationally speaking, it is better to cut off one finger than to hurt ten fingers, concentrate limited funds on a few projects, and avoid attacking from all sides, this strategy is correct." But emotionally speaking, a project like P15, we put so much effort into it, and we threw it away all at once, which is really unacceptable. ”