The Secret of Gambling(4)
"Don't worry, I'll explain it right away. In casinos, the laws of probability govern everything that happens. When the dealer has both wins and losses, the longer he plays, the greater the probability of winning, and on the contrary, the less hope the gambler has of winning. The rules of the game are most of the time unfavorable to the player, but understanding the ins and outs of the various probabilities that dominate winning and losing in gambling, and knowing the right strategy, can indeed minimize the banker's advantage. Knowing the timing of the probability-advantage, you can even turn the tide and beat the dealer. Otherwise, probability will never be on your side, and if you look at gambling from the point of view of probability, you will not be interested in winning or losing in gambling, and only focus on probability in gambling. Therefore, the principle of designing gambling rules is usually to make the casino's win rate slightly greater than 50%, which is reflected in the advantage expressed by the rate of return is a figure slightly greater than zero. Conversely, if the gambler can change the win rate from less than 50% to more than 50%, or make the return greater than zero, then the gambler can win or at least guarantee not to lose. This requires an understanding of the win rate of various games. I have used a computer to conduct simulation experiments, starting with roulette, with everyone can think of the staking method for simulation experiments, all kinds of methods can be thought of have been tried, and the number of simulations is that anyone can not gamble so many millions, tens of millions of times in a lifetime, no matter how to gamble, the final result is still to lose, the same is true for baccarat, the more simulated gambling times, the more impossible to win. This cruel and true conclusion confirms the scientific validity of the conclusion that 'you will lose if you gamble for a long time'. Robert deliberately stopped at this point, he wanted Wuwei to digest what he said, looking at Wuwei looking at himself stupidly, Robert smiled and continued:
"I tried to simulate blackjack on the computer many times later, but I didn't succeed in many ways. At this time, I carefully studied the book "Gambling Around the Earth" written by Dai Zilang, the Taiwanese gambling god. According to the card strategy and card counting method he talked about, a simulation test was carried out on the computer, and the results of the program operation showed that it is indeed possible to win the casino by playing blackjack. The size of the banker's winning rate depends entirely on the gambler's skill in gambling, i.e. correctly remembering the cards, analyzing the hand momentum and placing a reasonable bet. Excellent players can force the banker's winning rate to change from positive to negative, I deduced the basic strategy of blackjack through the method of theoretical calculation, according to the basic strategy and card counting, in the computer simulation experiment, the yield has stood firmly above the zero line. In other words, only blackjack is a gambling game that can achieve 'long bet and win'. This is also the reason why professional gamers only bet on blackjack. ”
Wuwei pondered and said: "I came to the casino after two consecutive wins are using the blackjack card counting method, maybe I have not learned solidly, in fact, there are still many uncertain factors in the process of competing with the dealer, and card counting and reasonable betting are sometimes affected by personal emotions. ”
"Indeed, knowing how to count cards is only the first step to be able to compete with the casino, there are many things to master, which is why I can count cards but rarely enter the casino to fight, the control of desire, the control of emotions, the judgment of the situation, and the use of intuition to determine the card, a real professional player is also after a long time of training to master the basic essentials. Gambling does not depend on luck, the casino is not afraid of your luck, the casino is only afraid that you understand science. Ordinary gamblers like to shop the yard number on the roulette wheel, guess the next card in blackjack is a big card and a small card, and the next hand in baccarat is a banker win or a player win. These are all things that casinos want, and they are very popular with casinos, which like to see gamblers toss and turn in these ways to lose money.
"Gambling, on the surface seems to be irregular, win and lose, ordinary gamblers see luck, so as to get lost in winning and losing, and probability theory reveals the regularity behind this, which is like all things in heaven and earth, everything has its internal laws, the key is to see if you can find it and master it.
"All gambling games in the world, such as lotteries, horse races, slot machines, gambling games in casinos, etc., no matter how ever-changing, are inseparable from one, and the return on the player is negative. The designers of the gambling rules also make use of the law of large numbers, the longer the gambling time, the more unable to escape the results predicted by the various probabilities in gambling. That's why casinos don't care about winning or losing. The rate of return and the law of large numbers are both the magic weapon for the casino to make money and the magic weapon for defeating the casino.
"In the case of a negative yield, trying to win in the casino is tantamount to hoping that the law of large numbers does not work. Casinos look chaotic about winning and losing, winning and losing, and probability theory reveals the pattern. Using the knowledge of probability, we can know that the winning and losing factors in the gambling game are determined by the various important parameters determined by the rules, and it is these parameters that reveal the secrets of the gambling game, knowing that they can know the gambling game well, and the casino will no longer be mysterious. Professional gamblers do not gamble on gambling games that will lose after a long period of gambling, but only gamble on gambling games that are sure to win. This is also the secret of winning money in the casino. ”
"Thank you, Robert, thank you for teaching me a good lesson, listening to your words is better than reading a book for ten years, and today I realized the meaning of this sentence. I'm lucky to know friends like you. In addition, I play blackjack card counting is the most rudimentary method, can you teach me some advanced card counting skills?" Wu Wei said to Robert very sincerely.
"Wuwei, to tell the truth with your current ability to count cards has few people are your opponents, your current weak link is not in this, gambling is more about betting on your human nature, gambling when you are not fighting with the casino, not to mention fighting with others, but fighting with yourself, gambling is a test of your own mentality, will, courage, self-control, intelligence, physique, patience, discipline and desire, almost all human advantages and disadvantages, are tested in the casino. Only by defeating yourself can you survive in the casino!"
"I get it, that's what I'm lacking the most, I don't really know how to exercise my humanity. Wu Wei fell into deep thought, he knew that he still had a long, long road ahead of him, and now it was just the beginning.
"Wu Wei, what we talked about just now is just the tip of the iceberg compared to what gambling contains, there are still many unknowns waiting for us to explore, I take these as my hobby to study, and you are a real practitioner, you need to understand and master the inner things of gambling. Only by using science to solve the mystery can you gamble for a long time without losing. Robert's earnest words made Wuwei feel even more admired and full of respect, and at the same time, he became curious about Robert, and he suddenly had an intuition that Robert was not just a casino dealer......