At the time of the special meeting of Tianyuan Capital's Southeast Asian economic deduction, the advance team of funds had just been blocked by the Bank of Thailand.

The funds of the entire advance team are considered to have been lost, and the preliminary estimate is that the loss should be about $300 million.

A region's economy is not as simple as a project, and even Chen Tiange feels that it is not so easy to sort out how many indicators need to be considered.

Thankfully, he has always advocated vague inferences rather than precise conclusions...... Even then it would be quite tedious.

The posture is set up. The conference rooms of the Strategic Decision-making Department have been set up, and the directors of each department have sat down according to their familiar areas, waiting for Chen Tiange to elaborate on the topic.

Chen Tiange seems to be in a bit of a difficulty, where should he start? It's too complicated.

This is a good economic issue, but when it comes to the economy of a region, it is not just about economic factors...... Well, let's start with economic events.

"The issue was caused by the action of international travel funds against the Thai baht, and we will take this incident as a starting point. ”

"Not limited to this incident, the analysis of the causes of this incident and what may happen in the future can be explained, and thus extended to the analysis of the current situation of the economy of the entire region of Southeast Asia. ”

A very broad topic is equivalent to not setting goals, pure nonsense, and it really has the meaning of a seminar or a tea party.

"This time the international tour capital shorted the Thai baht, and our financial investment department has also paid attention to it. The basic point of view is that it is a bit of a snake swallowing an elephant, and defeat is inevitable. ”

First of all, the financial investment department starts, which belongs to the business scope of their department, and there is no need to wait for the mention.

This part of the business belongs to Qin Hang, and his remarks are obviously unanimously approved by the entire team. Every head of futures trading from the financial investment department nodded their heads, that is, they had formed a conclusion internally.

"Putting aside the fact that Thailand and Singapore have been united, as far as Thailand is concerned, as the first of the four Asian tigers, the economic growth rate has remained at about 10% for more than ten consecutive years, and the Thai baht has become a regional currency. ”

"The volume of travel capital is still not enough to shake the foundation of a country or region. ”

"Thailand has been industrializing rapidly in recent years, and has basically reached the level of a moderately developed country. Just last year, Thailand surpassed Malaysia to become the largest country in the global rubber industry. ”

"The rubber industry is also a major industry in Thailand, and the country's policies have always been inclined and supported. ”

"As for the rigid needs of the rubber industry, in the Changming acquisition case, we have already reached a conclusion. This is a sunrise industry, which means that Thailand's economic foundation is solid enough to stabilize Thailand's financial market. ”

Chu Guoliang suddenly remembered that when they mentioned this, a sentence came out of Chen Tiange's mouth: What is this?

Obviously, Brother Chen is not optimistic about the exchange rate policy of the Thai baht...... The deliberations of SkyFuel Capital are chartered, and all resolutions are decided by the decision-making department meeting, even the chairman of the board of directors cannot veto.

If the final resolution of this meeting is optimistic about the baht, that is to say, there may be a possibility that Chen Tiange's thoughts are contrary to the decision......

"Our department only did some targeted investigation more than a month ago after receiving the documents from the board office. ”

"The net inflow of foreign capital from Thailand at the end of last year was about 700 billion baht, but direct industrial investment accounted for only more than 6 percent, more than half of commercial bank loans, and nearly 30 percent of the funds were short-term borrowings. ”

"Such data suggest that the nature of external debt and the proportion of speculative and liquid funds are too large. Such an economic structure does not have a solid foundation, and it should be quite unreasonable. ”

Extending from industrial investment to capital inflow, this can be regarded as the maximum expansion of Wang Jinjiang's equity investment department.

"The decision-making department compared some events after 90 years. Mexico's foreign debt balance in '94 was more than $80 billion, accounting for nearly half of its gross national product, and its direct use of foreign capital was $20 billion. ”

Similarly, Thailand's external debt balance at the end of last year was nearly $80 billion, accounting for nearly half of its gross national product. The direct use of foreign capital is also about 20 billion yuan. ”

"Thailand's development is not yet comparable to that of developed countries, and it is inevitable that there will be interest rate differentials and exchange rate differentials. This requires a question mark on the purpose of the frequent inflow and outflow of foreign capital. The conclusion of the decision-making department: this is earning the spread. ”

Such a situation has also led to the fact that international financial capital will pay too much attention to the financial market in Southeast Asia, which can be said to affect the whole body. ”

The decision-making part is very detailed, and Chu Guoliang only stated the part assigned to his statement.

"Economic globalization has led to an acceleration of international capital flows, and at the same time the scale of such flows has increased. ”

"In recent years, interest rates in the international financial market have fluctuated significantly, whether it is the yen, the mark, the US dollar, etc., the exchange rate changes of these currencies have basically reached about 30 percent. ”

"Thailand has maintained a stable exchange rate against the US dollar, when in fact the Thai baht has depreciated......"

"Thailand's fixed exchange rate is a paradox. The exchange rate of the US dollar is fixed, but the US dollar continues to appreciate against the yen, and the Thai baht also appreciates against the yen......"

"Rising labor costs and declining export growth rates have led to extreme imbalances in the balance of payments......"

"Last year's foreign exchange transactions reached trillions of dollars, which means that the volume of international travel funds may also reach this scale......

"The profit-seeking nature of capital will attract a large number of ...... of floating capital"

There is no one to guide it, but the direction of the topic is already obvious.

"Actually, since the middle of last year, some of our Hu partners have sensed the crisis and are already stockpiling dollars. This is not an occasional occurrence, but a general one, which has resulted in a decline in the foreign exchange reserves of most countries in the region, which are not sufficient to cope with the impact of international flows. ”

It was only when Hu Zhidong visited at the end of the year that he had a preliminary understanding of this. He didn't expect Chen Tiange to have a judgment at the time of Changming's acquisition......

"This time, Thailand has used nearly 10 billion US dollars in reserves, if not the limit, there is not much leeway. ”

"The economies of Southeast Asia, on the whole, should be fearless, but each has its own currency to maintain, which makes it impossible for them to concentrate reserves......"

"Once it is on the verge of breaking out, it is very likely to affect the whole of Southeast Asia and even Japan and South Korea, and even Hong Kong Island will also be the target of international tourists......"

"Hong Kong Island is one of the financial centers in Asia, and its financial policy has always been an open ......"

"The return is imminent......

……

After all, they all survive in Hong Kong, and no one wants to see an economic depression on Hong Kong Island.

However, the conclusion of the deduction shows that Hong Kong is bound to be implicated......

It seems that the inference of this issue may eventually need to be kept secret for the time being. Chen Tiange considered whether to let the decision-making department form a report on the final discussion.

This matter can only be reminded to China through this line of news agencies. Other...... We'll talk about that then.

Although capital pursues profits, Chen Tiange really can't do the matter of cutting meat on his own family.

This is not Hainan, and the meaning here is different.