Chapter 280 Analysis of Gold

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And after standing in front of the floor-to-ceiling glass of the office and seeing the scene of the crowd gathering below, the haze on Charles Prince's face became even heavier. As the chairman and CEO of Citi, he must bear all the pressure on Citi first.

"Boss, it's time!"

The secretary next to him reminded after looking at his watch.

Charles Prince withdrew his gaze and nodded.

"Grab the information, let's go!"

"Yes!"

When the two of them left the room and arrived in the conference room, it was already full of Citibank executives.

After striding to his seat in the middle, Charles Prince had a serious expression, and at the same time, his eyes quickly swept over everyone's faces, and he said directly: "Everyone, I think you are all aware of what the outside world is talking about Citi. So, I need you to come up with your opinion on this matter!"

As soon as his words fell, everyone's eyes flickered. After glancing at each other, everyone's eyes fell on Paul Turner, who sat first on Charles Prince's left hand. Because they all know that if there is anyone who knows Guo Shouyun best here, it must be Paul Turner, who has had the most contact with each other.

Noticing the eyes of the crowd, Paul Turner knew he would be the first to speak. So after a brief preparation, "From the company's point of view, I don't agree to accept Bruce Guo's bet!" for two reasons: First, Bruce Guo's businesses are very valuable, and even after deducting the value of the $3 billion CDs bond, the full loan would have allowed him to obtain more than $6 billion. If this money is invested in the gold market, it is enough to leverage five or six billion funds. While this amount is not sufficient to have a decisive impact on the gold market as a whole, it will certainly push up the price of gold. This kind of behavior of the enemy is really stupid. ”

"Second, gold futures are inherently high-risk speculation. Although now we have the upper hand. Moreover, there is no sign of a surge in gold at the moment. But the future is fraught with uncertainty. We can't predict the future 100% of the time. Therefore, once we lose, then five or six billion dollars, or even more, will not be returned half a cent in the future! This loss is too great!"

“… From my personal point of view, I would be inclined to agree with this bet. Because Citi is the world's largest financial group, we have our dignity and honor. If, while gaining the upper hand, you do not dare to accept a fundamental challenge that will not shake even if you lose, you will undoubtedly become a laughing stock in the financial circle. In the future, when I see my peers again, I guess I will be laughed at by them to death!"

"Finally, it should be emphasized that if we do not agree to the bet. That means we're sending a signal to the outside world that we don't have much confidence in gold bears. Once this signal is understood and spread, then the decline in the gold market will cease, and there will even be a small or even higher rise. As a result, our efforts over the past month will be cut in half. I think that's what Bruce Kwok would like to see the most!"

Charles Prince said thoughtfully: "So, whether we agree or not, the result is not good for us?"

"At least on the surface, and now the eyes of the world have shifted to betting. No one cares about whether the Argentine financial crisis subsides, and no one cares about the interest rate on federal reserves in the United States, so even if the measures we have prepared are taken out again, their impact and effectiveness will be greatly reduced. ”

Charles Prince frowned, "It seems that Bruce Guo is really not an easy guy to deal with. We've been working hard for nearly a month, and when we see that we have the chance to win, we never want to be easily turned around by a press release from him!"

"A person who can create a net worth of tens of billions in less than two years is naturally not an ordinary person!" said Paul Turner.

He who has dealt with Guo Shouyun the most knows very well how difficult the other party is. But even if he was already prepared in his heart, he never thought that the other party would put the duel that was originally in the dark directly on the table, and dare to nakedly provoke the majesty of Citi. He had never seen this kind of unexpected method several times in his life.

"Bruce Kwok is a genius, but it's not as difficult as Paul says. A middle-aged man in a black suit, with a bald head and eyes saw a sentence that focused everyone's attention on him and continued: "For the sake of Citi's reputation, we must agree to this bet." But the specific amount of bargaining chips between the two sides can indeed be negotiated. Although everything is in full swing, Citi may not take much advantage of it, but it definitely won't lose either. On the contrary, the most important thing for us is that between now and the end of the year, which is more valuable investment in the gold market, bears or bulls, is the core question that we should focus more on. ”

Paul Dempsey, Citigroup's chief risk officer, won the approval of most of the people present.

"Jordan, I'd like to hear your thoughts on the gold market for the next four-and-a-half-month?" said Charles Prince.

Jordan Morris is a principal analyst at Citigroup. He leads the Technology Department, which is the core of Citi's advisory organization.

"Before I speak, I would like to stress one thing at the outset: any future-based analysis carries a great deal of uncertainty. Therefore, all my analyses based on the current world economic, political and military situation are not entirely accurate. ”

"No one can predict the future accurately, that's clear to everyone. But I just want to know the future trend of the gold market after excluding uncontrollable black swan events!" said Charles Prince.

“OK！… There are many factors that affect the rise and fall of gold, but in general, there are six main aspects: First, the US dollar exchange rate. Second, the monetary policies of various countries. Third, inflation. Fourth, wars, political turmoil and other events. Fifth, the stock market. Sixth, the price of oil. ”

"The federal funds rate has been declining since the Nasdaq crisis. After eight downward adjustments, it has dropped from 6.5 before the crisis to 3 now. Corresponding to the depreciation of the dollar, inflation, the rise in the price of consumer goods, especially oil, investors have shifted their funds to safe-haven products for the sake of value preservation and safety, so the price of gold has risen. But now, a year and a half after the NASDAQ crisis, the US economy has reached the bottom. As long as the federal funds rate remains stable and the Fed does not continue to inject liquidity into the market, then gold will rise or fall around the $270 level. ”

"Let's look at the world market: Asia, after the '97 financial crisis, all their economic uncertainty has been squeezed out. At present, benefiting from China's economic development, the domestic political situation and economic situation have generally remained stable. As for the so-called collapse of China, it is even more of a joke. Therefore, there will be no black swan events that could have a significant impact on the gold price. ”

"As for Africa, this financial desert has a limited impact on the world market, and South Africa, the only country that can have an impact on the price of gold, has a stable economy and relatively stable gold output, and there will hardly be a bullish factor that will cause the price of gold to rise. ”

"In Europe, North America and Australia, the economy is generally stable, and the domestic political situation has not changed much. The only thing to worry about is South America. We provide financial loans that solve Argentina's capital dilemma. But this has not completely calmed down the economic situation in Argentina. If Argentina's economic situation is reversed, all our previous investment will be wasted, and the price of gold will rise again!"

"Do you think the Argentine economy will remain stable for the next four and a half months?" asked Charles Prince.

"To be honest, I'm not very optimistic. The efficiency of the Argentine government is terrible. Corruption is rampant and there is a lack of oversight of economic activity. It's hard to have confidence in them!"

Charles Prince pondered for a moment and then asked, "Then you mean that the price of gold bulls in the next four and a half months is more bullish?"

"No! Actually, I'd prefer the price of gold to remain flat! It fluctuates around $270! The situation in Argentina is stable, although it has a collapse side. Most importantly, Citi is the most powerful financial conglomerate in the world, and we have the financial power and connections that give us the ability to intervene in Argentina and the rise and fall of the gold market. So, if you really want to participate in the bet, it must be Citi's bigger chance of winning!"

After a pause, "For the gold market, I have prepared a more detailed analysis report here. I can give you a reference!"

Soon the surrounding secretaries distributed Jordan Morris's report to all the Citi executives present.

After taking it and flipping through it briefly, Charles Prince nodded.

"Let's go back and look at the information, and let's continue the discussion... If we agree to a bet with Bruce Kwok, how should we change the terms of the bet to make it more in Citi's interest?"

"First of all, I don't think it's possible to get a mortgage. We can't let Bruce Kwok increase his leverage in the gold market!" said Paul Dempsey.

"Of course we should. But we should not forget either. Bruce Guo's assets are very valuable, and if he wants to take out a mortgage or issue new asset-backed bonds, financial institutions such as Morgan, Merrill Lynch, and Goldman Sachs will definitely not let go of this opportunity!"

Robert Chandler, Citi's Chief Human Resources Officer, said.