In the scorching heat, in the room without air conditioning, everyone wore thin clothes, or wrote hard, or discussed in a low voice.

For Gu Biao and others, now it is considered an early summer vacation. However, they did not go home, but still lived in the school and worked hard for their graduation project.

After the oil futures are bought, after all, it is not certain when the market will come, and it is meaningless to stare at it every day. The reason why he opened a position a little earlier was also because he was afraid that President Hussein would suddenly have a brain pump and start a war too much in advance because of Gu Wei's butterfly effect.

Before the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq war and the results of the US election, doing more research preparations will save the country a lot of money in scientific research in the future.

So this summer, Gu Biao won't go back to Qiantang at all.

The electric fan whined, and the accuracy of the bearings and fan blades did not seem to be very good, and there was a slight imbalance in the rotation, so that the sound was particularly loud.

The noise of cicadas outside the window also tends to drown out the sound of conversation.

Of course, Gu Biao has the money to buy air conditioners, but the capital is not as far as the Tiangao Emperor Qiantang, and the air conditioning is too eye-catching. First, a big man came to inspect the research group......

"Cold drinks are here, let's take a break. Isminaya retrieved four bowls of dessert from the freezer in the school cafeteria and placed them on the conference table. It's a mix of mung bean paste and smoothies.

Gu Biao put down the documents in hand, took a bowl, and chatted: "Eh, Mina-san, just now I was watching the impact of international emergencies on the fluctuation of election support before the previous US elections, and I found an interesting brain hole. ”

Isminaya looked at the senior blankly: "My research direction is not this, and I don't understand what you said." ”

Yang Xin smiled heartily: "Brother Gu is calling us to listen together, he is talking about 'Mina-san', not 'Mina-san'." ”

Everyone is a person who has mastered N foreign languages, and of course they can understand this pun on Japanese oral fetish.

The atmosphere of intense research was suddenly relaxed.

Gu Biao ate shaved ice and pointed out the country: "In the last term, in the 74 midterm election, the people's pig stalls won a big victory and the nuclear stalls failed miserably. We're tired of seeing the result itself — but in the past, we've been attributing it to the aftermath of the Watergate scandal and not seeing any other contributing factors.

But after a recent review, I found that this was only because the release period of the US Department of Justice's evidence for the Watergate investigation happened to be stuck at this point in time in October 1973, from October 20 to October 31 to be exact.

Internationally, the Fourth Middle East War broke out from October 6 to October 26 of the same year. At the critical juncture when he was about to step down, Nixon also devoted his energies to forcing the US Air Force to use strategic transport planes to transport arms to Israel on October 12, and a few days later, on the 16th, he led to the Arab countries collectively anti-US production cuts and the outbreak of the first oil crisis.

After reviewing the polls at the time, I found that the collapse in the support rate of the people's pigs did not start on October 20, after the independent prosecutor Cosco released the first batch of Nixon's impeachment evidence, but on October 18, two days before Cosco started, the data of a polling agency showed this kind of plunge-

What does this mean? It means that ordinary Americans may not be as concerned about the dirty dog-eat-dog between the top as we have analyzed in the past, and they are more concerned about the five-fold increase in oil prices. It's just that the oil crisis and Watergate are too close in time, only 4 days apart, leading to confusion and misreading of the impact of the two in our analysis.

We have always thought that Nixon was spurned by the American people because he was a black hand of the people's pigs, but in fact, it is more because the American people are angry that the American president would rather sacrifice his own presidency and the interests of the American people to defend Israel. ”

Yang Xin, Ye Kun and Mina, after listening to this interpretation, they all felt refreshed.

Yang Xin studied the book and did not know much about the United States, so he put forward an old-fashioned view:

"However, the US president cannot be blamed entirely for the rise in international oil prices, right? Although he has shipped arms to support Israel, he has never encountered resistance from the Middle East world to collectively reduce production before.

Ye Kun, who is more familiar with the United States, immediately refuted Yang Xin: "Americans' expectations of the president are far from being comparable to their expectations of the prime minister, and they are used to controlling everything. ”

"I agree with Mr. Ye on this point. Gu Biao made a judgment and analyzed in depth, "Our domestic analysts have ignored this angle before, mainly because we are used to only managing our own thinking mode.

Assuming that our country is plagued by the sharp rise in international oil prices, our people will feel that this is an 'event' and an objective factor. Although it is difficult, it will pass by enduring it, and I will not feel angry.

Americans, on the other hand, think differently than the rest of the world, and are accustomed to having their president in charge not only of the United States, but of everything else on the planet.

All accidents, unless it is an alien attack or an alien impact, if the US president does not take care of other things, causing fluctuations in the situation in foreign countries to affect the domestic economy and life, that is, the head of the earth is incompetent and should reduce the approval rate. ”

"This ...... It's really a domineering mode of thinking. Yang Xin and Mina were shocked by the mentality of the American people.

It turns out that in the eyes of the American masters, if the president fails to fulfill his duties as the captain of the earth, it is also a dereliction of duty?

What the people of other countries feel is a "natural disaster" and cannot be complained about, but in the hearts of the Americans, it is a "man-made disaster."

Hearing this, Mina was the first to react.

After all, she and Gu Biao speculated on crude oil, so she was the most sensitive.

"Ah, doesn't that mean...... If President Hussein really starts a war and causes oil prices to rise, President Carter, who is currently in office, will be further affected and his approval rating plummet? Even if Li Gen was not so sure of winning the election in the first place, with Hussein's encouragement, it would be a little more certain?

Others also suddenly said, "Yes! Originally, we viewed Carter's downturn in isolation as a long-term variable of 'the United States is too weak in dealing with foreign affairs.' Now it seems that there is also the oil price, which is the fastest momentary factor, which can further deteriorate public opinion in a matter of days. ”

Talking about this, Gu Biao's own views on this issue have deepened again.

In the United States, it is clear which gear is in power and which gear is going to suffer.

Perhaps, Hussein chose to start a war a month before the vote in the U.S. election, just to change the U.S. president?

It's a pity that he miscalculated in the end because after changing to an emotionally unstable and unprofessional president who was an actor, the United States did not decline, and relaxed the constraints on Iraq.

And the subsequent US presidents, who have zero tolerance for the thorns in the Middle East, may have started from this lesson. They are fed up with the fear that "those big oil dogs in the Middle East can decide which one will be the president of the United States".

It is only 81 years later that Saudi Arabia has been extremely co-opted, and even allowed Saudi Arabia to purchase almost all the arms of the five permanent members without restrictions, and even Saudi Arabia has turned a blind eye to its covert possession of long-range ballistic missiles and even some indescribable warheads.

Before the lessons of the Iran-Iraq war, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were not at all within the scope of what the United States was trying to woo. Previously, the United States did not regard those oil countries as human beings at all, and it was enough to support Israel alone in the Middle East.

There are some things that you can only see so thoroughly if you are a party yourself.

Gu Biao finally asserted: "I think we can refine this research point a little more, submit it to the principal, and explain the usage." If the relevant authorities allow, show President Hussein the data linkage model that he prefers...... Then the timing of the outbreak of war may be more controllable for us. ”

"It's a good idea, it's a better level of persuasion, and it's gradually changing from an observer to a trader. Everyone agreed with Gu Biao's statement.

……

In such a simple research atmosphere, the details are excavated, reinterpreted, and given new uses.

The days are full and happy.

Towards evening, as the scorching sun faded, everyone was ready to go out for a meal.

While packing up, there was a knock on the door to the conference room.

Gu Biao went over to open the door and found that it was his girlfriend Xiao Sui, carrying things in a large bag.

In this kind of weather, I came all the way, and I was soaked, and my clothes were all glued to my body.

"Suiko, you ......"

"You called me last week and said that you were very busy with confidential projects and would not be going home during the summer vacation. So I came to the capital to look for you after the final exam. Xiao Sui's handkerchief, which had been twisted many times, wiped the sweat dripping from his hair.

It turns out that there is also the operation of letting girls go to the city where their boyfriend's university is located during the summer vacation......

Gu Biao wanted to hug and cherish it, but considering that there were three single dogs, it was not good to sprinkle dog food.

Oh, to be exact, it should be two single dogs, Yang Xin has already taken off the single, but his girlfriend is out of town.

"How long are you going to stay? Won't Auntie be worried?"

"If you have anything to worry about, just tell your family that you are going to travel to the capital and collect style. I haven't been to the capital much before. Xiao Sui replied very simply.

Gu Biao had no choice but to introduce it to everyone.

Ye Kun and Yang Xin had both met Xiao Sui, but before she became Gu Biao's girlfriend. Now that the identity has changed, it is natural to reintroduce it.

"You can continue writing in the evening, I may have something to do - my girlfriend, Xiao Sui. ”

"Hello Xiao. Yang Xin had no psychological burden and greeted him frankly.

Mina and the others also shook hands.

"The content of the topics we are studying is relatively confidential, you can go downstairs and wait for me, it's not convenient to see more here. "Gu Biao is also very clear about public and private, so let Xiao Sui not look at it indiscriminately.

"Here are a few videotapes of "Hujiang Beach", which TVB people sent to me after editing, you can watch them in advance. Keep two copies for Mozi and Applejack. Xiao Sui said, taking out a few boxes of videotapes from his bag.

Now at the end of June, the first round of "Shanghai River Beach" has been released on TVB in Xiangjiang, and the response has been extremely enthusiastic. And the mainland is still submitting for trial. Xiao Sui's Cantonese version is obviously a ripped version leaked internally.

"Wow, let's watch it together in the evening, there's a VCR upstairs." Mina has always been very interested in what Senior Gu invested money to shoot and wanted to see what it was.