Chapter 225: A Winning Bet

……

Guo Shouyun can see that the continuous success has made Zhang Shaoling and his group's confidence a little inflated. However, this is also human nature, after all, they are all young people who have just entered the financial circle, with little experience and lack of calm. Of course, Guo Shouyun is younger than them, but the combined experience of his two lives, especially life experience, is richer than them.

"Looks like we're going to have to make them suffer a little bit!"

Guo Shouyun said secretly in his heart. It's easy for a complacent team to poke out a big basket.

Although this is the plan, how to let the whole team learn a lesson without letting them completely lose confidence is also a matter that is quite difficult to think about, and it tests Guo Shouyun's management skills.

"By the way, after the completion of this gold transaction, I am ready to donate all my own investment and the money earned from this fund!" After thinking for a moment, Guo Shouyun smiled meaningfully.

"Donate it all?"

Zhang Shaoling was surprised.

"Hmm!"

"Boss, it's really good to do charity, and I support you very much. But should you also leave some capital for the company?" said Zhang Shaoling.

"What? Thunder Fund's customer funds reached $1.123 billion, plus the income from two gold futures investments, and after deducting service fees, it was also close to $1.6 billion. Isn't this amount of money enough for you to operate?" Guo Shouyun asked rhetorically.

1.6 billion funds are certainly enough to put before, and before joining the Thunder, it was even their dream. But now that it has become a habit to operate tens of billions of positions, the $1.6 billion will not exceed 10 billion even if the leverage is increased, and it feels like it is too little. You know, what he expects is that even if Guo Shouyun wants to siphon out his investment, he will leave at least two gold investments for them to operate. Now, it seems that this wish is about to be frustrated.

Moreover, there is another thought that weighs on Zhang Shaoling and all the 'Solomon Gold Trading Group'. According to the agreement they signed at the beginning, if their investment buying and selling were all from Guo Shouyun's strategy, then in the end they could only get a bonus equivalent to 1% of the total profit. But if it's their own trading, they can get 5%.

Obviously, the profit of $1.6 billion and the profit of $4.56 billion are two very different concepts.

Looking at Zhang Shaoling, who wanted to speak again and again, Guo Shouyun smiled and said, "How about we make a bet?"

"Bet?"

Guo Shouyun nodded and continued: "It's May 7th, so let's limit it to three months. In the next three months, your team and I co-operated $1 billion. If at the end of the three months, you can make more profit than me. Then $4.56 billion will be left for you to trade. If you lose, donate the money as I say. How?"

"Boss, are you serious?" Zhang Shaoling's eyes were full of light and a strong desire to challenge.

"I never break my word!"

Guo Shouyun smiled.

"That's a word!"

Looking at Zhang Shaoling's right palm stretched out towards him, he smiled dumbly, and reached out to pat the other party.

"Well, that's all I have to say. Get busy!"

After the words fell, Guo Shouyun turned around and walked out of the room.

"For the money, for the beauty, for the beautiful beaches of Brazil, we have to beat the boss...!"

Listening to the faint voice coming from inside, Guo Shouyun quickly recognized that he belonged to the most active trader, Louis Kekan.

After a smile appeared on his face, Guo Shouyun stopped and listened for a while, but did not go back.

"Boss, are you confident that you can win the game?"

Wendy asked after returning to the living room.

"Nope!"

"No?"

Looking at her surprised expression, Guo Shouyun smiled.

"Every member of Solomon's team is my hand-picked financial elite, and their ability is beyond doubt, and my strength alone is not comparable to their entire team. ”

"Then why did you make that bet just now?"

"Just give them some encouragement!" Guo Shouyun said with a smile.

In fact, without the special period of 9/11, he really didn't know how to win. But knowing the general trend, he can guarantee that he will definitely make money on gold. The reason is also very simple, just 'go long'. Even if the price at which he opened a position to buy will fall to a certain extent, it will also rise back at the time of 9/11.

Of course, if the price of gold can break through the psychological selling price he set, then he doesn't mind making a few short-term trades before the 9/11 node.

As for the gamble just now. If, at the end of three months, Zhang Shaoling's team has made more money on gold than him, then it proves that they do have extraordinary talent in gold investment, and Guo Shouyun can rest assured that the $4.56 billion in funds will be handed over to them to manage.

If they fail in the end, $1 billion will not be a loss more than he can afford. Moreover, his income from gold can offset his losses. By the way, it also allows the entire Salomon Gold trading team to learn a lesson and let them grow.

Therefore, although Guo Shouyun is not sure that he will definitely win the bet. But in the long run, it will be him who wins in the end.

"Did Bill Lockyer ask?"

"I've asked, at half past nine in the morning the day after tomorrow, he will ask you to meet at York Arena!"

"York Arena?" Guo Shouyun said in surprise.

"Yes, a tennis gym near the California Attorney General's Office!"

"Tennis?" Guo Shouyun nodded. He is not very proficient in tennis, but he can play twice.

"Plus, this is a fax from Qin!"

Guo Shouyun nodded, and after taking it and looking at it twice, his face showed a look of satisfaction. For the credit default swaps of WorldCom, Arthur Andersen and Enron, Qin Zhicheng has bought nearly $5 billion. And this document is a copy of the contract, after he signs it, Qin Zhicheng can get the money in Wendy's hand, thus officially making this contract effective.

After reading it, he took the pen from Wendy's hand, signed his name, and handed it over.

"Send it to him!"

"Yes... In addition, Qin also sent an email in your mailbox!"

"Mail?"

After chattering, Guo Shouyun got up and returned to his desk, opened the computer and clicked on the mailbox, and sure enough, it showed that he had an unread email.

After clicking on it carefully, Guo Shouyun's brows gradually wrinkled. It took more than half an hour to read this information, and after pondering for a while, he picked up the phone on the table and called Qin Zhicheng.

Obviously, Qin Zhicheng had long thought that he would call, so the call was made quickly.

"Boss!"

"I've read your email. Is it true that Tyco International and Adelphia Communications are as financial fraud as you say in your information?" Guo Shouyun said directly.

"Eighty percent probability!"

"80 percent? That's not a low number. … How did you find out?" asked Guo Shouyun.

"Ever since my boss asked me to buy the credit default swaps for Arthur Andersen and Worldcom, I've been researching about these two companies, and I found their names on Arthur Andersen's cooperation list, so I was curious to find out. It turned out that the two companies had one thing in common with Enron, WorldCom and Arthur Andersen. ”

"What do you have in common?"

"Yes, they all use the 'fair value calculation method'!" Qin Zhicheng obviously accentuated his tone when he mentioned the last few words.

'Fair calculation', Guo Shouyun's eyes instantly became deep. As a graduate of Stanford University's Department of Economics, he naturally understands the meaning of 'fair value calculation'.

Generally speaking, the familiar financial calculation method is called the 'general financial calculation method'. Enterprises that adopt this method of financial statistics will have a clear statistics on their losses, gains, current assets, non-current assets, etc., when making the company's balance sheet. If you make a dollar, you will count the revenue of a dollar, and if you lose five cents, you will count the loss of five cents, everything is very clear.

This is not the case with the 'fair value method'. The first thing it counts is income. For example, to build a power plant. When the plant is just starting to start construction, and sometimes it's still on the drawing board and hasn't generated any revenue yet, it's already counted on the company's balance sheet.

Moreover, even if the power plant does not generate positive returns for the next 10, 20, or even longer, its normal revenue will be counted. To put it simply: even if the power plant doesn't make a dime, it is still a profitable company that can generate full earnings under the 'fair value method'.

Some people say, "Isn't TMD a liar?" That's right, it's a liar. This is also the reason why Enron, WorldCom, and Arthur Andersen will break out into financial scandals. It led directly to the Sarbanes-Oxley Act.

So what is the root cause of this financial fraud? Of course, it is the heart of American finance -- Wall Street. Anyone who knows anything about stocks knows that the higher a company's revenue, the more popular her stock will be in the market. Especially in the 90s, when the US economy was in a bull market, all the Wall Street financial giants will help you cover up financial loopholes, raise revenues, and pull up stock prices. In the process of rising stock prices, they not only buy low and sell high, making the difference from it, but also making these companies with financial loopholes willingly sign loan bills with high interest rates.

In this case, both Wall Street financial giants and big business executives are happy because they are both making big money. However, ordinary investors and pension funds, pension funds and other investment institutions have become the last ones to blame.

However, when the NASDAQ crisis occurred and the bull market turned bearish, this game of financial fraud could not be played. After all, the 'fair value method' is only a financial statistical method. If there is no real, profitable assets to support it, it is just a paper tiger after all!

"Have you read their balance sheet?" Guo Shouyun continued.

"I have analyzed the balance sheets of Tyco International and Adelphia in the past ten years, as well as the business information they have disclosed to the outside world. ”

"The result?"

"Tyco International's financial holes are even bigger, but Adelphia is more likely to go out of business in comparison!"

Guo Shouyun raised his eyebrows, Tyco International's strength is much stronger than Adelphia. The former has operating revenues of $40.2 billion, more than 260,000 employees, and ranks 91st in the Global 500. By comparison, Adelphia is the fifth-largest cable provider in the United States, with revenues of less than $6 billion. The ability to resist risks is naturally inferior to Tyco International.

"Being strong doesn't mean 'too big to fail'. In addition, the balance sheet is only a part of the true financial position of the company, and off-balance sheet assets are the key. Guo Shouyun said.

"Off-balance sheet assets are the core secrets of an enterprise. It will be difficult to find out for a while. However, there is no real data on off-balance sheet assets, and from the available information, they are also in poor condition. In addition, the energy market in the United States has been sluggish. The telecommunications market was dragged down by the NASDAQ crisis, and it also went bankrupt and collapsed. Therefore, the situation of these two enterprises will certainly not be good. ”

After frowning slightly and thinking for a moment, Guo Shouyun continued: "How did you think about it?... Shorting?"

"Short Tyco International and buy Adelphia's default swap products!" Qin Zhi asserted.

In Qin Zhicheng's heart, he always thought that Adelphia's situation was worse than Tyco International.

"How much money do you need?" Guo Shouyun said after thinking about it.

"3~500 million US dollars. Preferably 500 million!"

"You're not polite at all. Guo Shouyun smiled, and after thinking for a moment, "It's easy to want me to support you, prepare a more detailed information for me." ”

"I've prepared a two-hundred-page document and I'll fax it to you right away. ”

"Looks like you're prepared!"

"How dare I bother you if you don't make enough preparations. ”

"Don't give me this set. Don't I know you yet!" After scolding with a smile, "Okay, I'll hang up." I'm just calling you, I haven't eaten dinner yet!"

"Happy dining to the boss!"

Shaking his head slightly, Guo Shouyun hung up the phone after saying 'goodbye'. Turning his head to look at the unclosed email on his computer screen, his brow furrowed again. As for the fraud scandals that broke out in the American business world in the early part of the 21st century, he was most impressed by Enron, WorldCom, Arthur Andersen, and Vidi-Wan. Of course, he also knew that it was not just these companies that had a financial fraud that could have had such a big impact and directly contributed to the birth of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act. But it was so long ago that he couldn't remember it clearly.

"Let's wait until I finish reading Lao Qin's information!"

Thinking of this, Guo Shouyun turned off the computer, turned around and walked out of the study. In the restaurant on the first floor, George Fields has prepared an exquisite Chinese dinner according to his instructions.

After dinner, I finished talking on the phone with Molly Bevan in Essex, England, as usual, and after writing for a while, I went to bed on time at half past ten in the evening.

And then, all night without a word!