Gu Biao refuted Wang An's words in person, and summed it up in one meaning:

In a very fast-growing market, it is inevitable to die in order to extremely please the existing stock of customers, and to arrange their own R&D plans strictly according to the "market research results" of their needs.

From 76 to 86 to 96 to 06, the stock of personal computers on the earth will increase tenfold every ten years, and the number of computers in '06 will be a thousand times that of 76.

What is Wang An's motivation for insisting on one-stop packaging and perfect compatibility of closed systems and all software? It is to please the American senior white-collar elite, the main force who currently use personal computers, to create the most perfect office experience, document security and fluency for this group of people.

In the development of the specific discussion, Gu Biao, of course, was a sideliner, and also talked about a lot of industry cases written by Christensen, which really stunned the staff of the Science and Technology Commission and the computer experts of the two academies.

After talking about this reasoning, they didn't wait for Wang An's reaction and refutation, but eagerly and directly caught Gu Biao's panic questioning, and they didn't care about taking care of the face of the American guests.

"Comrade Xiao Gu, do you think that if we want to develop a computer operating system, we will also have to follow the open system route of the IBM model? We can concentrate our resources to do great things, but can we win over IBM? As far as I know, once an open system is adopted, the biggest problem is the winner-takes-all and the Matthew effect, and when the time comes, we will only be able to live one.

After all, it is impossible for any software vendor to develop two versions of software for two systems for a long time. They will definitely feel that one of them has many users, so they will focus on the software used in this version of the system, and even if the other competing system is done, it is not original, it is transplanted, and there will be more bugs. Over time, users will definitely become more and more focused on the best system. ”

The question was raised by a staff member of the Committee.

When Gu Biao heard this, he couldn't help but nod secretly. In 1986, it was not easy for China's science and technology managers to be able to tell the winner-take-all, the Matthew effect, and deduce the latter common sense.

is a knowledgeable person, no wonder he can come to the Science and Technology Commission to get a job.

Gu Biao replied pertinently: "That's true, this comrade is not bad at all. We can even say that IBM is leading the table today, and in the end it will not benefit much from itself. When the time comes, the 'best operating system' will win the initiative in the PC industry, while the 'best hardware integrators' will be eaten up by other low-cost brands.

Today, the 'Open Computer Project' alliance led by IBM is mainly based on IBM, a supplier of core technology components, Intel, and Microsoft, a software system supplier. In the future, I think Intel and Microsoft will be the biggest beneficiaries, while IBM will become a provocateur in the field of personal computers, tearing down Wang An and Apple's tables, leaving everyone without food.

However, this is not unacceptable for IBM, whose main business is mainframes and servers. Even if it doesn't make money in the PC field in the end, he just needs to make sure that no one on the planet can make a lot of money in this industry.

IBM is equivalent to completely smashing the market at the bottom of the computer user pyramid, making no one make a lot of money, and then in exchange for its own hegemony in the penultimate layer of the pyramid, it has indirectly become the bottom. ”

As soon as these words came out, the staff who presided over the meeting looked sideways.

And Wang An also showed a painful look.

Wang An still doesn't believe in Gu Ao's analysis in his bones, but he knows that at least Gu Biao's analysis of IBM's motives is right - if IBM can't get Wang An's market, he will also flip the table and no one will eat it.

This is not only because reason makes him believe, but because emotions also tend to make him believe - Wang An and IBM have been in a legal struggle with IBM since 1956, after he invented the hard disk.

Wang An has been fighting with IBM for 30 years, so he tends to believe anyone who says bad things about IBM.

This also made him less disgusted with Gu Biao's face-saving just now, and felt that Gu Biao was indeed "talking about things".

After you have scolded a person, what should you do if you want to prevent him from hating you and still think that you are fair? Gu Biao's example is a living teaching material: after you have scolded him, you should scold his enemies with fifty slabs each.

Wang An was still immersed in contemplation, but the presiding officer of the meeting opened his mouth to ask: "Comrade Xiao Gu, since you said that at the level of personal computers, the development of closed systems has no future in the future, and you can only live one in the world as an open system, how should you lay out in this field?"

Do you just break and don't stand up, and don't have any constructive lines? You can only say that this will not work, and that will not work, but this is not the attitude we should have!"

Gu Biao sighed: "It is definitely not possible to compete with IBM head-on, this is not a problem of technology and investment, but also a problem of the international situation and comprehensive national strength." The Americans will not tolerate other countries to set this international standard, and China's national strength, within ten years, or even twenty years, will not be able to challenge this from the bottom.

IBM's partners at the system level have also been occupied by Microsoft, and this position is also not something that Chinese can replace, even if our technology is stronger than Microsoft, IBM will not choose a Chinese company to cooperate.

We can only forbear to join this international division of labor for the first time, because information and communication technology has no choice but to do its own work behind closed doors, and it must be interoperable with the standards of the world. Of course, the country's scientific research strength can exert force on the mainframe and giant computer systems above the server, and retain the inertia of technology accumulation. ”

"Then you still haven't said how to do it! Saying that, this won't work, and that won't work! After this piece of pure abandonment, you can't exchange some other interest chips?"

"I said - as I said earlier, Wang An's computer's route, that kind of closed system, will be limited to the subdivision of 'business elite', and will not be able to develop into a new personal computer user base that is ten times larger in the future.

As I also said, according to the experience of the IT hardware industry in the past, every 20 years, 98% of the technology companies that focus on serving old customers will end up - then there will be 2% surviving? How can these 2% survive?

It's not that old customers can't serve, it's just that because of the price reduction of products, the total market capacity of old customers has shrunk, and they can't afford to support so many enterprises, but one can still do it. In the future, it is inevitable that most of the enterprises that will do well in the closed operating system will die, but it is inevitable that one company can survive, and it is impossible to be completely wiped out by IBM.

What we have to care about is nothing more than this surviving one, whether it is Wang An, or Apple, or some other company - such as our Chinese company. And the key to this lies in the right mentality and positioning. If a traditional closed-system PC company wants to be an enemy of IBM and waste resources competing with IBM, it will die.

But if he knows to be soft on IBM, endure all these years, and focus his energy on killing Apple, Spectrum, and Commodore, then it has a chance to survive the cold winter and wait for a turnaround. ”

Gu Biao is telling the truth, in history, after the IBM model came up, didn't there still be one family, but that one was Apple, and it didn't live very well.

Because the sales of Apple computers have stagnated from that moment, and the price of computers has been decreasing, so from the mid-to-early 90s to the beginning of the 21st century, Apple has been gradually declining.

Life must be the only one who can survive, and it is nothing more than that history will choose whether Wang Anhuo or Apple live.

As for the shortcoming of a tendon in the brain axis, Wang An and Jobs are actually the same, and their idea of insisting on the degree of system closure is also the same.

It's a pity that Wang An is senior and old, and he got cancer 20 years earlier than Jobs, so he won't live to the day when the IBM model turns from prosperity to decline.

However, Wang An was completely angry when he heard this, and retorted sharply to Gu Wei:

Once technology is released from the cage, it will only progress, not regress. The generation of personal computers has been completely abandoned, and where is the 'opportunity for the next generational change'! If it is suppressed by IBM this time, it will be suppressed by IBM forever!"

The other party spoke like this, which was already graceless, but it was also touched by the long-cherished resentment in his heart, so he lost his temper slightly.

Gu Biao didn't want to refute it anymore.

Because he knew that he had convinced the meeting presiding officer of the Science and Technology Commission, and that was enough.

Gu Biao didn't really come to save Wang An today, he just didn't want to waste the state funds, and don't let Wang An's advice deviate from the sugar of the state funds.

In addition, the motive of "Wang An trying to establish prestige for his son" has long been clear to Gu Biao.

Not to mention that Gu Biao was originally good at figuring out the distribution of interests, the most important thing is that Gu Biao knew the historical fact that Wang An passed on the throne to his son.

Therefore, what Gu Biao has to do today is to use irrefutable truths by the way, so that the vision of the Wang family father and son cannot be recognized and famous.

Gu Biao even planned to use a certain channel to reveal the fact that the views of the Wang family and his son were outdated and deflated at today's symposium to Kaningham or John Chambers or the high-level officials within Wang An's computer who were dissatisfied with the succession of father and son through a certain channel, so that they would be even more dissatisfied with Wang An's arrangement.

Historically, Wang An asked his son to take over, but in fact, he only took over for two years, because two years later, Wang An's computer was indeed messed up by Wang Lie - annual sales of 3 billion US dollars, but there was no profit, but a loss of 700 million US dollars.

Then, on his deathbed, Wang An repented, asked his son to step down as chairman and CEO, and hired Edward Miller, an outside professional manager from Wall Street who was best at bad restructuring, to take over the company.

It's just that Edward Miller is only good at cutting costs, enhancing performance and management, but he doesn't understand scientific research, so although he drastically reduced his losses, he even destroyed Wang's R&D department, making it impossible to develop a new generation of products - in a word, Edward Miller's methods are almost the same as John Shaber's approach at Texas Instruments, both are

"What should we do when a technology company loses a lot? Cut the R&D department, remove all the R&D costs, and the company will not lose money. But once the last generation of products is backward and has to be replaced, the company is completely dead."

Edward Miller's deeds haven't happened on this plane anyway, so there's not much water left for the time being.

Gu Biao thought of this just because he felt that since Wang An found out that his son was not good, even outsiders like Edward Miller dared to invite him in to take over the company. That shows that he cares more about whether the brand "Wang An" can survive than passing on the throne.

Since this is the case, Gu Biao will wait for Wang An to really find out that his son is not good, and then he will come forward to collect the body. He's better than Edward Miller.

Of course, it is impossible for Gu Biao to help others manage the company, if Wang An really lasts until 88 years and then relents, Gu Biao can only guarantee that the brand "Wang An" will be retained.

Say yes or no.

Anyway, there is no hurry now, and the stock price of Wang An Computer is still high.