Two hours later, the reception room of Gu Biao's villa.

Han Ting played with the wine glass, looked out the window in confusion, and thoughtfully said: "Gu, do you think that Atari is so prosperous and declining, can we hide from it." Although I really want to see their end, when it comes to this day, the unspeakable death of the rabbit and the fox is sad. ”

"Not necessarily, depending on what we do, but we're all people who have learned the lessons of Atari and at least hopefully. Gu Biao was lying on the sofa, his body weak and his thoughts were profound.

Han Ting was obviously not satisfied with this answer.

"Just learn the lesson of 'never offend consumers, and make good products with heart'? It doesn't seem like enough, right? You called me the day before yesterday to talk about some details of your negotiations with Akio Morita. I think it all makes sense.

Companies in the hard disk and memory industry, no matter how strong, only one or two percent of each generation survives to the next. Atari is so strong, he has ruled the game console industry in the world for 6 years, and he just plays with eggs, but he is just like them. I don't believe that those companies are also slacking off and disrespecting customers. ”

Seeing each other is a serious quest for knowledge, not an excuse. Gu Biao also rubbed his waist, rubbed his temples again, sat upright opposite Han Ting, and solved his doubts:

"You should know that before Atari was finished, the founder Bushville had been hollowed out, and the follow-up tricks were all made by the shareholders' meeting. ”

Han Ting seemed to grasp some life-saving straws, but she still couldn't be excited: "Then do you think that as long as the founder stays, the company will not collapse easily? I'm 35 years old, and I'll retire after 15 years, and then Hanle Electronics will also be handed over to you to take care of, or will it be rotten?"

Of course, the professional strong women of later generations will not retire at the age of 50, but Han Ting is obviously thinking about the problem with the thinking inertia of Chinese in this era.

"You didn't get to my point. Gu Biao waved his hand and took the pen and paper from the side,

"The key to my analysis of a tech company's boom cycle is not whether the founders stay in office, but whether shareholders can be constrained from squeezing the company's interests away.

Why did Atari despise technology over the years? Why did Atari not invest heavily in developing next-generation products since the 2600 game console in 1977? In fact, since Bushville was hollowed out, the status of their technology department in the company has become lower and lower.

Because in Silicon Valley, it takes about 5 to 7 years for a new technology to go from being born to generating actual commercial benefits. In the past 5 to 7 years, the R&D department has been a gold-swallowing monster, frantically sucking the profits of the company's previous generation products, making the company's financial statement data ugly and the stock price unable to climb.

For the founder, as well as the shareholders who are trying to hold the company's shares for a long time and make profits with long-term dividends, this situation is no problem, they are ready to pinch it for the rest of their lives, and it has nothing to do with him if the stock price is lower now, this is also for the sake of sustainable competitiveness in 7 years.

But if there are shareholders who just want to make the company's stock price higher and the financial statements look good in two or three years, and then sell it at a high price, then what should he do?

Of course, it is to cut the R&D department immediately, so that the company will lose its competitiveness and die after 5 to 7 years. But they can't cut it openly, the shell must be kept, and the R&D project must continue to make slides to show customers and draw a pie for consumers. Except for the people who make the slides to stay, do all the practical things and roll, or force them to go on their own with low salaries.

Do you think that this time Atari is finished, all Atari executives and shareholders will lose money? No, in fact, many major shareholders who have formed a controlling stake in decision-making have already joined hands to throw away a considerable part of their bargaining chips, and they know in advance that after the residual value of the 2600 model is squeezed dry, Atari will have no future. ”

Han Ting was dumbfounded when she heard this.

She didn't expect that there would be such an investment business in the world.

"This ...... When they invest in a company, they don't look at the company's goodness? They want the financial statements to pretend to be better in front of the public and make it easier to get rid of? How can there be such brazen people in the world? Then the Americans don't care? Is there no such precedent in the first place? The US Government is not afraid that such vicious speculation will harm the US economy and science and technology?

Gu Biao took a bottle of whiskey, poured a little, added ice cubes equivalent to three times the amount of wine, and took a sip:

"The U.S. government, it just hasn't had time to think about it yet - this kind of thing, there weren't many in the 70s. Because of the 1969 recession, the U.S. federal government enacted a tax reform to suppress speculation, raising the "long-term capital gains tax" rate from 28% before '69 to 49%.

This kind of tax surge has greatly suppressed the cost of major shareholders to make money by 'speculating on stock prices and getting rid of them', and once made the U.S. stock market benign, with the pursuit of 'dividends' as the main profit model.

Five years ago, however, in 1978, the Senate adjusted the tax code again, bringing back the decade-old 49 percent 'long-term capital gains tax' back to 28 percent. At that time, the purpose of this was to the fact that the Americans noticed that the "Apollo Program" represented by the electronics industry had transferred military technology to civilian industry, and that there were many companies that could not make a profit for five or even ten years.

In order to support these new technology companies, shareholders must be allowed to directly speculate on the stock price to make profits, otherwise these companies that have not been able to wait for dividends for ten years will not be able to raise capital, and can only wait for death.

The Atari 2600 console went public in 1977, and the Senate raised the long-term capital gains tax in '78, so Atari became the darling of venture capital at that time. Because the law now allows them to leave in less than five years, of course they want to suppress R&D, save costs, and make high profit margins, and you know the rest of the story.

Even I think that the collapse of Atari was accidental, though. However, this case will enlighten the capital circles in the United States and make them realize that it is replicable to 'take control of a high-tech company that currently has good cash flow and small profits through the stock market, lay off its R&D department, reduce expenses, and create the illusion of windfall profits to deceive shareholders into taking over, and then take the money and let the company die'.

In the next few years, the U.S. technology industry, all publicly traded companies, is likely to suffer from such hostile takeovers and fraud. If the Americans didn't think of it, I would have thought of it for them. ”

What Gu Biao said was actually the "barbarian at the door" style of the gradual rise of the United States in the 80s, but the later "barbarians at the door" generally learned to stare at all industries that "can hurt long-term competitiveness, make short-term profit statements inflated, and deceive shareholders with false prosperity".

And Gu Biao can only teach Americans to keep an eye on the tech industry for the time being.

Think about how much money the R&D department burns? Think about the future generations, Intel and Qualcomm claim to have a profit margin of 60% in production and sales, and how profitable it is, but 75% of the profits have to be invested in R&D. As a result, the net profit margin is still only 15%.

If you kill the R&D department, the profit will instantly change from 15% to 60% in 5 years, and the financial statements are simply dazzling.

You are a listed company, and you want to sell it within three years when the stock price skyrockets? Cut down the R&D department! Lay off all the scientific research elites! Anyway, laymen and shareholders can't understand it, and when they understand it, you will run away long ago.

Historically, the first wave of barbarian hostile takeovers at the door was to explore a 5~7-year technology cycle after the long-term capital gains tax was lowered in 78, and then figured out the taste.

Then, from around 85 years ago, barbarians began to run amok, and it was not until the end of 1988 that the famous KKR hostile takeover of Reynolds Nabiske became a wake-up call.

The U.S. government realized that it could no longer allow Wall Street to go crazy to hurt American technology and brands, and set restrictions on the financing of various short-term speculative acquirers, causing many junk bond financings to default, and finally stopped this turbid current in the early 90s. Since 1992, there have been far fewer hostile takeovers in the U.S. capital markets that undermine a company's long-term competitiveness.

This led to the later Internet boom, because when the Internet appeared, entrepreneurs in the American technology investment market had learned to pick investors who had been with entrepreneurs for a long time.

For example, if an investor invests in a technology company and has not sold it for 20 years, then his reputation in the industry is very good. In the future, when there is a new project, everyone will look for him first.

And if an investor belongs to the kind of person who will withdraw after seven or eight years of capital injection, then the reputation will be worse, and the entrepreneur will feel that this person is either sincere and consistent with my long-term interests, or wants to get a vote and leave.

As for those barbarians who have never held shares for no more than 5 years, no one will take their money in the Internet age in the United States, and the reputation of these barbarians has already stinked. Unless they wait for the other party's company to go public and then go to the secondary market to attract funds, don't even think about it before going public.

In later generations, China's capital market may have been because it had not experienced the lessons of these barbarians, so it would have to take a detour and feel the stones again after all. In later generations, there were many so-called venture capital funds in China, all of which wanted to exit after holding shares for less than 5 years and wanted to make quick money.

How can entrepreneurs who really have potential and core competitiveness take the money of these short-sighted spicy chickens? Therefore, they are only worthy of investing in subsidized taxis, riding bicycles and delivering takeaways.

Now, even Americans have not realized that "investors who want to leave after holding shares for less than five years are not as good as pigs and dogs".

Therefore, Gu Biao has the opportunity to focus on people and let the Americans learn this with the lessons of blood.

And Gu Biao can also not be the initiator, and he will not bear the notoriety of the initiator.

Gu Biao can make Americans realize that he is not born to know, but those short-term investment shareholders of Atari, who inspired some people, opened the gates of hell, and caused the subsequent 5~7 years of American technology stock catastrophe.

……

"It's terrible, although I don't know what to do, but I at least understand one thing - my Hanle Electronics, no matter when it develops in the future, no matter whether I am not there, will never be allowed to be publicly listed on the stock market. We are not short of money, and we cannot give short-term dogs the opportunity to covet control of the company. ”

After listening to Gu Biao's all-round review, Han Ting only came to such a conclusion for the time being.

She has regarded the stock market as the root of all evil, which is very much in line with the social ideas she received from a young age.