Gu Biao's "devil in the bottle" that Gu Biao said to Watson undoubtedly refers to Microsoft, which was given the opportunity by IB.

{Again, little Watson is an old man in his 70s, and the reason why he has to add a small in front of his title all his life is to distinguish him from his father.} Even if his father has been dead for many years, it's the same, just like even if Lao Buxu dies, Xiao Buxu still has to be smaller. }

With so many years of experience and experience, it is certainly not difficult for little Watson to listen to the sound outside the strings, and he reacted in a second.

"You mean Bill Gates, that kid, you think he's the devil in a bottle, and even the IB can't control him?" asked Watson with a blank face.

Of course, he was slightly disdainful in his heart.

Microsoft, although it is not a strategic partner introduced by Watson Jr. himself during his tenure as president, he has always been aware of the market, after all, he has always been the chairman of IB.

When Microsoft went public two years ago, its market value was $400 million at the issue price, but it rose to $530 million in a few days. {Microsoft went public in March 1986, exactly two years ago.} }

At that time, Watson felt that this was a bit inflated, how could a company that cooperated with IB's personal computer plan to make a D system be worth so much?

Of course, if there was only an early version of D at the time, Microsoft really wasn't worth that much.

But just a few months before going public, Microsoft had just launched the first versions of wRD and exeL based on the D-based system. {The other software in the FFie family has not been made yet, only wRD and exeL}

These two office software bodies improved a little at that time, and they were favored by some keen Wall Street people, who felt that they could rob Wang An's business, so they supported the market value of Microsoft at the time of its listing

At the time when Microsoft went public, Wang An had been diagnosed with cancer, and the news of cancer was also inquired by Wall Street intelligence people. Two months after that, Wang An wanted to take his son to China for a visit, wanted to brush up his son's prestige, and passed on the throne after returning to China, but in this life, from that node, he was cut off by Gu Biao.

It can be said that Microsoft and Gu Biao have both benefited from Wang An's decline, at least from Wall Street's confidence.

If Wang An does not have cancer and shows that there is no successor to continue to be in charge of the company, Wall Street does not think that Bill Gates's two office software can grab much market.

The premium of this confidence is estimated to be doubled.

The world is really small, rich to a certain extent, the circle looks down and doesn't look up, a little bit of new dynamics in competition, and the result is, hey, it's still an old acquaintance.

However, Microsoft's continued performance in the next two years was also good, which had to make Watson Jr. later retract a little bit and felt that Microsoft was overvalued and despised for more than a year after the listing, Microsoft caught up with the big bull market in 87, and its market value rose more than 4 times at its peak, and it broke through $2 billion at the peak when the bubble was at its peak last summer, reaching 2.2 billion.

However, the subsequent big stock market crash led by technology stocks was more or less affected.

It's just that Bill Gates also drew a clear line with traditional hardware companies at that time, and avoided the bubble categories that Gu Biao tried to puncture when he wrote "The Innovator's Dilemma", so it quickly rebounded after a small impact, and stabilized in the market value of 12~1.5 billion US dollars in the stock market crash last year.

In the three months at the beginning of '88, Microsoft performed well and rose back by one or two percent, with a total market capitalization of $1.7 billion. However, it still does not reach the time when the bubble was at its largest before the stock market crash in '87, and Microsoft will need to struggle for another year and a half to surpass that bubble. Then in 1990, it began to continue to grow explosively, almost doubling every year.

Watson doesn't believe that a $40 or 50 billion company will not be able to control a $17.8 billion partnership.

"It's barely manageable right now, but you can't go wrong with finding some spare tires in advance against new potential opponents. I think you should live long enough to see that day for yourself. ”

Gu Biao also knew that Watson Jr. would not immediately realize the threat of Microsoft, so he didn't expect to convince the other party at once. But first bury a seed, Lala friendship to say that he is harmless to humans and animals, after all, it will not be wrong.

Anyway, it's supposed to be a visit to the neighbors and have afternoon tea, and you still expect this kind of social activity to make a big difference.

Gu Biao didn't know how long little Watson would live, so he didn't care about these historical details. But at this moment, sitting down to talk face-to-face, drink tea, and look at the other party's health, Gu Biao estimates that the other party will have no problem holding out for three or five years

Wang An, who has been diagnosed with middle and advanced stage cancer, can survive for so long with the excellent medical conditions of a rich man.

has money to the level of Watson and Wang An, as long as it is not an accidental death, medical resources can always be delayed.

Historically, IB later turned to United Apple, that is, around 1992, when Microsoft's market value doubled every year for three years, so the total market value has exceeded $15 billion.

In the early 1990s, IB was at a low point. Because Microsoft is becoming more and more self-reliant, the "Open Operating System Personal Computer Alliance" founded by IB has bypassed B in hardware, and the market value of B has fallen by a small half compared with 1988 {the lowest point in history appeared in September 1993, when the market value was only $20 billion, and an important bad news was that Watson Jr. passed away that year}.

It is precisely because of this general trend that IB later had to join forces with its former rival Apple and Motorola, which provides the P architecture (in order not to use the x86 architecture promoted by Intel-Microsoft), to form a new alliance for closed operating system computers, and all parties highly license each other's technology to seek competitive advantage. After all, Microsoft's market capitalization at that time was more than half of IB's, and it was qualified to compete head-to-head with IB.

It's just that this wave of operations later seems to have proved to be not much of a benefit to IB, but Apple has benefited more.

Of course, Apple slowed down a little for three or four years, that is, from 1993 to 1996, and then because of Microsoft's wi95 system, the explosive force and rapid washing of the market became declining again.

I have to admit that IB is a company that is really alive and going back, looking at the 30 years from 1988 to the next 30 years, the market value of Microsoft has risen from 1.7 billion to trillions, an increase of 600 times, while IB company has only risen 4 times in 30 years.

However, this is also a common case of large company diseases, an old company that has been around for decades, and it is impossible for you to expect him to explode like a rocket.

In fact, if Microsoft's 30-year development history is divided into two sections, it is the same: by 2000, when the Internet bubble was at its peak, Microsoft's market value exceeded $400 billion, which is equivalent to a 200-fold increase in the previous 12 years. Then it also began to fall into a stable and large company disease, and it only tripled in the next 18 years.

Literacy is not to say, Microsoft and IB will be known in the future, and what Gu Biao wants to lay out now is to strive to replace the position of Apple in history in a few years, cooperate with IB for a few years, and eat enough of IB's benefits.

Gu Biao is quite sure of this, because he will take Apple before 1992.

At that time, Apple will be a corpse, and if IB wants to find a large closed-system personal computer manufacturer, it will be impossible to cooperate with the dead, so it will only be necessary to find Gu Wei.

{Well, theoretically, you can still find tt and Digitl Reer at that time, both of which have self-developed operating systems.} It's just that these companies are not familiar with the Chinese, so don't mention it. They existed in the 90s as a weaker spare tire than Apple in the field, and after the emergence of the Wi95, it basically disappeared completely.

As for the DRE and PETR mentioned above, they have begun to decline now, and they will die in 90, so they will not even be qualified to be the bottom spare tire at that time. The bottom spare tire is to live for 95 years, and to clarify, of course, a large company like TT has always existed, and the decline mentioned above is only for its personal computer business. }

……

Of course, it is impossible for Gu Biao to use all of the above deductions as deductions, not to mention that he himself is not all clear.

But there really is nothing wrong with the general principled deductions he talked about.

It's just that his words are really too straightforward, which really makes little Watson feel uncomfortable for a while. But at the same time, it is also conducive to the other party's impress, and Gu Biao will only be remembered when it is verified by history in the future.

This is the best state of long-term friendship.

"Gu, I think you must have been wishing me a long life just now, so that I can see the day when IB needs to face up to Microsoft's competition. ”

"You don't need to live too long, it's as short as four or five years, as long as six or seven years, and it can't be longer. ”

"I'm a little tired, so I'll go back first, your water park is good, I'll have someone modify my there when I go back, my grandson will like it." Little Watson politely drank the last two sips of his afternoon teacup before taking his cold leave.

His words seemed to inadvertently show his dissatisfaction, and he implied that his grandson's hobbies were similar to Gu's.

Gu Biao didn't want to worry about the old man in his 70s, so he didn't understand, and sent the guest out with a smile, after all, he also used more intense words just now.

After sending the guests out, Mina asked sincerely: "Husband, do you really think that Microsoft will fight against IB in the future and make IB have to find old rivals to cooperate?"

Gu Biao: "It's just an old opponent in the old era, not an old opponent forever." There are no eternal friends, no eternal enemies, only eternal interests.

Moreover, even if little Watson is not dead at that time, he can't pull his face down, but Wang An is definitely dead. Although I have control of Wang An's estate and company, I have nothing to do with Wang An after all. The leader of the IB will let go of this knot and face. ”

Mina asked incomprehensibly, "However, if the situation really develops as you predicted, and Microsoft becomes a behemoth that neither you nor IB can contain, how can you unite? ”

Gu Biao said confidently: "There is still a chance, and the opportunity is to seize the trend of miniaturization of computers." Microsoft wants to fully occupy the market, it is useless to rely on brand manufacturers alone, the key is to make the world appear 'compatible machine', that is, a chassis size does have a lot of redundant margins, and consumers can freely insert motherboards, P, memory, and hard disks.

After the emergence of this model, the brand manufacturers of the open system will not be able to support the cost advantage of the compatible machine. However, as long as users still have the pursuit of size miniaturization, compatible machines will not be able to seize this part of the market. In terms of many miniaturized black technologies in hardware, there will definitely be places that rely on IB's mature hardware technology and experience in the future, but that is the next generation of products. ”6