As a futures practitioner, Wang Huiling is very familiar with the basic characteristics of mung bean varieties: this is a small and large variety.

It is said that it is small, because the output value of mung beans is very low, the national output value will not exceed 4 billion per year, and the circulation is smaller, compared with corn, rice, and wheat, it is not worth mentioning at all in the agricultural product sequence, and no one in the country regards mung beans as a staple food, in other words, it is not a necessity.

It is said that it is big because of the large trading volume of mung bean futures, as the five major opening veterans of futures launched by Zhengshang in 1993, mung beans are listed together with wheat, corn, soybeans and sesame. However, the trading volume and activity of mung bean futures are much higher than those of other varieties.

As the leader of Zheng Shang Law Firm, the total trading volume of all mung bean contracts in 1997 was nearly 20 million lots, and the trading volume exceeded 30 million lots before October 1998. It can be seen that there is a lot of money in it, and the handling fee charged by the exchange is at least 1.2 billion even if it is calculated according to the undervalued year. If it is an active year like 98 years, there is no suspense about more than 2 billion. After the rectification of the domestic futures trading market, the number of companies has changed from 14 to 3, and the overall fee income is only more than 3 billion yuan, and Zhengshang alone accounts for more than half, which is larger than the large commercial exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange combined.

This is reflected in the disk operation is also obvious, compared with mung beans, natural rubber is really pediatric, Chang Tianhao under 500 hands have to be careful, it took 3 days to complete, the next 1000 hands of mung beans is much easier, very quickly completed in half an hour of trading time, the impact is completely different.

But when it comes to the Nanyang Gang, she is a little unclear.

"The land in Nanyang is fertile and has four distinct seasons, which is particularly suitable for the growth of mung beans and is the main production area of mung beans in the country. Why is mung bean trading so active? It's not because mung beans are in greater demand or more market-oriented, but because compared with other varieties, mung beans have the characteristics of concentrated origin, limited production, and easy storage.

"Understood, understood, understood, ......" These characteristics were superimposed, and Wang Huiling quickly built an impression of capital manipulation in her mind.

"As the main dealer, the background of the Nanyang Gang is not a rich boss or a business, and the real background can scare you......"

"What is it?"

"Local Food Bureau!"

"Impossible, right? How can the government do such a thing?"

"What's so strange about this, isn't there any state-owned enterprise or public institution under the government?" Chang Tianhao said with a smile, "Who tossed last year's Zhuye incident? Isn't that a state-owned enterprise?"

Wang Huiling was silent: in 1997, as one of China's largest lead and zinc production and export bases, Zhuzhou Smelter believed that the international zinc price was high, and at the same time believed that the market broke out of the financial crisis, so it shorted the metal zinc on the London Metal Exchange (LME), and most of the short positions were in the hands of Zhuzhou Smelter, and as a result, Zhuzhou Smelter, which had an annual production of only 300,000 tons, sold 450,000 tons of short contracts in one go, and finally was forced to close the position and stop loss without delivery, losing nearly 1.5 billion yuan - several years in vain.

Not long after Zhuzhou Smelting closed the position, the price of the international market suddenly fell, and it almost didn't make people angry!

Therefore, Chang Tianhao doesn't care at all about the government and state-owned enterprises intervening in futures, "The deputy director in charge of direct operations is the senior brother who graduated with a doctorate from the Department of Finance in Hujiang." ”

"Have you contacted this senior brother?"

"No, no, no, I know him, he doesn't know me, and I saw all the information I collected from public sources...... There are a total of 7 members of the food bureau team, he ranks third, and I have verified everyone's resume and educational background, and only he is the most suitable. I went to the library to find a graduation thesis, to determine the identity and background of this person, and more importantly, ......" Chang Tianhao smiled slightly, "I have read the news of the local provincial newspaper, and the year before last commended him as a model worker, the reason is that the innovative use of financial means for capital operation, to achieve the preservation and appreciation of state-owned assets and a bumper harvest, there is a whole routine in it......"

"Tell me?"

"Let me ask you, is it better to go long or short on futures?"

Wang Huiling smiled: "How can this question be summed up in one word, futures are not stocks, there must be long and short, there is a reason for more, and the reason for being empty cannot be generalized." ”

"What you're talking about is a general theory, specifically do you analyze and analyze the characteristics of the mung beans I just mentioned?"

Wang Huiling racked her brains and thought for a while, trying to grasp the unique law from it, and vaguely felt that she had grasped the key point, but it seemed that she had failed to see through anything. In the end, she coquettishly said: "People are stupid, I really can't think of it, teach me ...... good."

"In this world, the materials are limited, the funds are unlimited, so the imagination of the rise is infinite, there is no cap, the fall space is a big deal to fall to zero, there is actually nothing that can really fall to ......zero," Chang Tianhao smiled, "mung bean spot is only so point, the bulls rely on the 16 times leverage of futures, it is easy to rely on the capital advantage to speculate the price, the futures price rises, the spot also rises, so the warehouse receipt will not increase too much, at this time it is easy to form a long short scene." If this is not easy to understand, then I use the stock as an analogy, as long as the market maker has money, can I always pull the stock price up? Pull it to the back, the plate circulating outside is getting smaller and smaller, is it easier for the stock price to pull up?"

"You have to be able to ship it, isn't it rich on paper if you smash it in your own hands, and it's useless at all?"

Chang Tianhao smiled dumbly: "Why do you have to ship them all, can't you sell them to the bank?"

"Sell the bank? Oh...... Oh...... You say you use stock pledge for loans?"

"3 shares are speculated by you to 100 yuan, maybe 80% of the outstanding shares are concentrated in your hands at that time, you want to sell all in the market is impossible, but you find a bank loan, it is easy to sell, even if you make a discount pledge, it is also very cheap, after all, the cost may only be 10 yuan, 20 yuan. ”

"Are banks so stupid?"

"My little sister, the bank itself doesn't know how to think, whether it's stupid or not depends on the risk control and the specific handling personnel, mortgage 300 million yuan, and stuff 3 million kickbacks to the president and credit officer, how many people do you think can resist the temptation? As long as the rebate is not found after the fact, it will be a normal loss of work -- pay the tuition! Otherwise, how did the bad debts of the four major banks come about? Do you really think that the people who lend the loans do not know the risks? For him, the risk and loss are above, and the rebate is taken by himself, which is completely disproportionate, even if he does not sit in this position in the future, as long as he does not go to jail, it is worth making a profit. What's more, there is the ultimate method of debt-to-equity swap, what are you afraid of?"

Wang Huiling exclaimed: "Ah! can you still play like this?"

"When it comes to mung beans, the situation is more complicated, and there will be a variety of stories released around March and May every year to attract foreign funds. If you have read the industry analysis report, you will understand that the release of bad news at this time of year is not good: what is the backlog of stocks, the weather forecast is not good, the planting situation is not optimistic, the prices of fertilizers, seeds, labor have skyrocketed, and the pessimistic attitude towards this year's harvest in the producing areas ......"

Wang Huiling thought about it for a while, and it seemed that this was really the case: every year before the receipt, at least 7 out of 10 forecast reports released said that the situation was not good, such as mung beans, soybeans, and Yungui's sugar industry. With this news as a foreshadowing, it is easier to form a bullish atmosphere, and then all kinds of speculative funds start to rush in to tell the story.

"Relying on this story, the bulls began to open positions, and then pushed the price up, and the bears gradually became unfavorable, but they still had the illusion that it was impossible to maintain the futures price higher than the spot, and there would inevitably be a downward process, but they would eventually despair, because the price would get higher and higher, until they were forced to cut their positions...... Speculative shorts lose money, what do hedging shorts lose?"

Wang Huiling said without thinking: "It's spot!"

"Hahahaha!" Chang Tianhao leaned back with a smile, "Give you a chance to organize the language again, think about it again?"

Wang Huiling frowned and thought desperately, and finally understood: At this time, because of the strong atmosphere of speculation and longing, the price system has been completely abnormal, so the futures price will be higher than the spot - just as the futures sell 4000 a ton, the spot retail is only 2 yuan a catty, where is the huge price difference in the middle?

"The idea is good, but I remind you that this is not an extra mung bean, usually a stock ......of mung beans," Chang Tianhao added, "Just now I said the background of the Food Bureau, do you think, in the main producing areas of Nanyang, who else can have more inventory than the Food Bureau, and have a larger warehouse receipt?

No, that's a breach of contract, with a 40% performance bond deduction.

If you do, then you will be deceived! Because the goal of the bulls is to make money, not to earn mung beans, what is the use of holding mung beans? After collecting them, they are not going to sell them? If they are sold, they can only sell them at a low price, and if they don't do well, the grain bureau will take them back.

So the overall situation is clear: the hedging dealer (food system) is making a noise about reducing production - forming speculative expectations - rising prices - attracting more speculative longs - the market maker shorting at a high level - giving his inventory to the bulls - the bulls can't take it or barely take the goods and sell them cheaply - the bookmakers take it back.

As soon as it came and went, the dealer made money - about the difference between the futures and the spot.

"Originally, the Nanyang food system was waiting for the price to go up and then dumped the goods, and the price was beaten down, this senior brother's initiative is not to sell the goods, first eat the goods, and then make a short position in the futures market, and then hand over the goods in his hand with warehouse receipts - to the bulls...... Do you think, which of the two methods makes more money?"

"It's the latter!"

"Of course, you can't say that there is no risk in doing this, you often see the news that the grain depot is on fire, and if you dig deeper, you will find that there is no stock in it at all - the stock has been sold a long time ago. Chang Tianhao smiled, "This kind of unlucky guy is usually in the opposite direction, or the replenishment time is too late, so I can only ask Zhu Rong to help, as for whether it is useful or not, the benevolent will see the wise and the wise will see the wise." ”