Chapter 12: New Thinking (1)
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"Senior brother, you're finally back, you've been waiting for you for a long time, and if you don't come again, you just have to let Xiaoqin pager you. ”
Chang Tianhao apologized again and again: "I went to the computer city to visit the flowers for a long time, and finally bought an IBM notebook and came back in a hurry." ”
He patted the new item in his hand: "I haven't even figured out the partition and software." ”
"Let the Ministry of Information do it for you right away!"
"No, no, I'll just toss it myself. ”
Gao Yang said: "Your external account has been opened, and you can trade early tomorrow morning, and now finalize the last few details......?
Plan A: The assets are directly transferred out of the country at the black market price, and the handling fee is 7% off;
Plan B: RMB assets are deposited in the local universe bank, guaranteed by New Century Corporation, and the Hong Kong account is issued by the Southern Company for Hong Kong dollar loans, with a monthly interest rate of 3 cents, monthly settlement, and a handling fee of 7% off;
Plan C: The first half is the same as Plan B, with a daily interest rate of 7%, which is calculated as a few days and settled once a week, but the handling fee is not discounted.
All the above plans involving the repatriation of Hong Kong dollars will be converted according to the official exchange rate, but the exchange and transfer fees will be waived.
Gao Yang explained: "After the communication, they also attached great importance to it, not only us, but also other people raised similar questions, and your solution was still creative, and the other party agreed." However, after communication, it is believed that there are two problems with daily settlement:
The first is that time does not allow. The two places and the four parties have to cross the border and the province, and the operation workload is very large, and the daily settlement cannot be done temporarily.
The second is frictional loss. Today you make 100,000 Hong Kong dollars and pay according to the official price, tomorrow you lose 100,000 Hong Kong dollars and draw it out at the black market price. Between one profit and one loss, it remains unchanged in Hong Kong dollars, and it is directly 15% less in RMB, which is not a small loss.
Therefore, the other party suggested that the settlement of the week should be changed to the end of the week after the close of trading on Friday, and the settlement will be completed before Sunday, which will not only have enough time to deal with it, but also buffer the friction loss, what do you think?"
"Senior brother Gao Ming, it's me who is too tender. ”
"No, no, no, you came up with it in a flash, and a few of us discussed it for half an afternoon. Gao Yang said with a smile, "As for the daily interest rate of 5% you proposed, this afternoon the HKMA raised interest rates again, and the next day's lending has been raised to 3%, and the other party said that it may increase from the long-term trend, so the minimum can only be 7%, which I can't change." ”
Chang Tianhao thought about it: the daily interest rate of 7% is almost more than 2 cents per month, which is equivalent to a 7% discount according to the original standard of 3 cents per month.
From the perspective of the three plans as a whole, the other party's appeal is very clear: either the handling fee will give you a 7% discount, or the financing interest will give you a 7% discount, and not all of them will be 7% off. Presumably, it involves a complex distribution of interests, and it really cannot be said to be moved.
He asked, "When it comes to Hang Seng Index Futures, how do you calculate the margin and handling fees?"
"Have you taken a fancy to the Hang Seng Index? The junior brother really has a good eye, and it has been very popular recently, and a bunch of financial predators are eyeing it. The margin standard of the Hang Seng Stock Index Exchange is 6%, Taihe plus 2 points, a total of 8%, and the handling fee is 50 Hong Kong dollars per contract, which is charged in both directions for opening and closing positions. ”
8% is equivalent to 12 times leverage, and the handling fee of 50 Hong Kong dollars per piece is more expensive, which is barely within a reasonable range. Chang Tianhao quickly calculated: when the handling fee is discounted by 7%, 1 Hang Seng Index can be discounted by 15 Hong Kong dollars, and when the interest is discounted by 7%, with a total of 500,000 assets, it can save 3,500 Hong Kong dollars in half a month. In other words, from the 234th Hang Seng Index transaction, the preferential handling fee is more cost-effective than the interest discount, and if the transaction frequency is less than the transaction, it is obviously cost-effective to receive the interest discount.
After a little thought, he replied: "Then I'll choose Plan C, I wonder if Senior Brother can match 500,000 to my account?"
"I want to talk to you about it too. You currently have more than 450,000 in your account, so you can simply match 500,000 to make it easier to calculate. ”
"That's it!"
At about half past five, all the technical details were in place, and the contract text was signed - the contract was still signed. Starting early tomorrow morning, Chang Tianhao can trade normally.
However, the trading software is connected to Southern Futures, which cannot be directly connected to Hong Kong and Taihe, and needs to be transferred through the former, plus the market itself will lag by 45 seconds, and the overall response time will lag by nearly 90 seconds compared with the normal time.
[Note: Scalping refers to the use of ultra-short-term fluctuations to win the difference, and the opening and closing time is calculated in seconds]
couldn't push Gao Yang's enthusiasm, Chang Tianhao and Brother Chao were invited to dinner together, and when he heard that he would start tossing the outer plate tomorrow, Brother Chao smacked his tongue: "This is internationalization?"
Chang Tianhao smiled: "Go outside to try the water, choke and then come back to learn to swim." ”
Gao Yang said: "I read your operation record, the style is very bold, the trading methods and timing are very accurate, Brother Chao said that you are a lightning hand, I don't think it is an exaggeration at all." Compared with the top traders I saw on the beach in the early years, the problem is that they have been practicing for many years, and the junior brother has such a sense of disk at this age, which I have never heard of or seen. ”
"Senior brother has won the award, it's just lucky, Brother Chao was brave back then. ”
"Yes, yes, Brother Chao was a legend back then, I just joined the futures company when I graduated, and watching Brother Chao is the same as watching an idol. ”
Brother Chao laughed: "Gao Yang, you hurt me again, I can't run away from Shanghai, and you still gave me 500 yuan for the travel fee." ”
"I didn't expect that after 2 years, I was almost going to run away from Shanghai, and Brother Chao has made a comeback. Gao Yang sighed with emotion, "The wind and clouds are changing, things are people, and people are wrong......"
"Hahahaha, cheers!"
As soon as the two of them raised their heads, half a tael of white wine was dried up in one gulp, Chang Tianhao shook his head helplessly: According to this drinking method, he would have to pour 2 cups, so he has always been reluctant to mix in circles, not because he doesn't know the importance of mixing circles, but because he really doesn't have this talent.
As the quip goes: alcohol consumption is also productivity!
When Lenovo was reborn, a series of breast licking doors, kissing doors, lurking doors, and flipping doors were exposed in the new wealth selection, and he smiled: What is this? The real scene is much more exciting than "Step by Step".
"Senior brother, the market will open tomorrow, what are your operational ideas?"
"Recently, I have been paying attention to the news, Hong Kong international speculators are menacing, Hibor has been pushing up, the Hang Seng Index has been falling, and I will most likely be short selling tomorrow. ”
The Southeast Asian financial crisis that erupted in Thailand in 1997 did not subside by the following year, but intensified. In the past, Southeast Asian countries generally adopted the linked exchange rate system, pegged to the US dollar in their own currency, and at the same time continuously introduced foreign capital, which led to the economic development miracle of the Asian Four Little Tigers.
There is a typical drawback of the system of relying on foreign investment to develop the economy while at the same time realizing freedom and opening up in an all-round way: It is relatively dependent on foreign exchange! When the domestic economy is overheated and inflationary, it is unable to float freely under the linked exchange rate system and releases risks, which implies the dilemma of overvaluing the local currency and gives international speculators an opportunity to take advantage of it. The latter first borrowed a large amount of currency from the local area and exchanged it for dollars, and as the country's foreign exchange dried up and the domestic and foreign attacks were combined, the exchange rate was shaky, and more and more people must exchange their own currencies for dollars.
There are only two solutions to this challenge: first, to refuse to convert, which will completely destroy the market system and lead to the resignation of the government, and second, to allow exchange, which will last until it is unbearable, and then the local currency will depreciate sharply, and the international speculators, believing that the profits are enough, will withdraw and let some of the foreign exchange flow back to the local currency, and convert it into local currency to close the original borrowing position.
This is a huge profit spread.
The difference between the official and underground markets of the renminbi is 15%, which is shocking enough, and the depreciation of currencies such as the Thai baht, Indonesian rupiah, Malaysian ringgit, and Russian ruble has exceeded 50% or even 75% in the past year, which shows how high the profits are.
After Southeast Asia has fallen, the international predators led by Soros are pointing straight at Hong Kong, and these few days are about to launch a general offensive......