Listening to the analysts' misty speeches has a trick, the first is not the point, the important thing is the words after the "but": the first ones are generally to flatter customers or cater to trendy views, just a foreshadowing, like a teacher calling parents to school, first saying a bunch of good things about their children, and finally with a "but...... Recently, my academic performance has dropped a bit" is totally true.

This not only fully "affirms" the customer's train of thought, but also euphemistically expresses different opinions, and the so-called art of speaking is generally nothing more than that.

It's just that sometimes you have to pay attention to whether the "but" paragraph is followed by the "of course", and once it is followed by the "of course", it means that the situation is not right: the analyst is not completely sure of what he just said, and he is more convincing himself. It's like when the guests commented on the final before the start of the game, they said: "Brazil is a traditional top team, won the championship last time, this time they have a luxury squad led by the world's top star Ronaldo, purely in terms of strength, they have ......a slight advantage; Of course, football is round, and it won't be surprising that any score is possible. ”

After listening to this "of course", you can be sure: reviewers, like you, don't know the final result until the end - let alone the score, he doesn't know who loses or wins.

Correctly grasp this discourse system in order to continue to survive in the analyst industry, otherwise every time you slap the face, how to mix? But it will not be used is not the same as understanding formal logic, let alone understanding the connotation, as Chang Tianhao, who was born in the liberal arts, he rarely uses tables and curves in his speeches, which sounds too cold, he likes to package it as a philosophical positive, negative, and combination, and occasionally it is not enjoyable, and after that, you have to add a "liter" - you can understand it as sublimation, it can also be understood as extension, and it can also be understood as borrowing the topic to play.

It's still the old saying: what you understand is naturally understood, and it's useless to say that you don't understand, and whether you understand or not is not in the person who speaks, but in the understanding of the listener.

Now, little Bourgeois, who understands German dialectics, is about to start passing on the scriptures again.

"However, it was a little earlier......"

Brother Chao looked surprised: "It's early, tell me which one is early, it's been adjusted for more than a year, and it has fallen all the way from more than 8,000 yuan...... There is no decent rebound in the middle, not to mention the fundamentals, there is a strong demand for a rebound from the technical side!"

"Why does rubber keep stumbling?"

"This is not simple, the main exporter of rubber is Thailand, after the financial crisis last year, the Thai baht depreciated sharply, and the price of rubber fell when it was cheap. But cheap is last year's thing, because the contract has been signed, this year after the new rubber on the market they put the price up, no matter how bad it is also bound to the dollar, because of last year's violent economic crisis and the flood in June, Thailand's export volume is decreasing, not to mention the return to the original price, at least now such a low price can not even cover the cost...... Someone can do the business of killing the head, and it is impossible for someone to do the business of losing money for a long time. ”

Hutian rubber delivery variety is Hainan rubber, and Thailand delivery bulk is No. 3 cigarette rubber, rubber is rubber, but not the same attribute thing, cigarette rubber is usually better quality than Hainan rubber, more expensive, after the Thai baht plummeted and the RMB exchange rate remained roughly unchanged, the price of imported cigarette rubber went down, cost-sensitive manufacturers have increased their efforts, which naturally caused the domestic Tianjiao all the way down.

No matter what kind of glue, the production line can be slightly adjusted can be used with each other, Chaoyang tire can be used both Hainan glue, can also use cigarette glue, and can also use neoprene as a raw material in an emergency, of course, the equipment must be debugged.

The operation logic of Chaoge is very simple: when the consumption of low-cost cigarette film glue is almost the same and the follow-up supply is unsustainable, the domestic spot price will rebound, and in line with the idea of the final consensus of the long-term trend of futures and spots, it is believed that the futures price should rebound - this is the essential idea of spot manufacturers to intervene in futures hedging.

Chang Tianhao nodded: "That's right, but there are other factors in the middle, the cost of falling rubber prices in Thailand does not mean that domestic futures prices will rise, and it does not mean that they will rise immediately, you must consider the difference in futures delivery factors and policy protection, and you yourself said neoprene, have you seen the price of crude oil?"

"It's not like I'm staring at it every day, but the overall trend is down, I know. ”

"I have looked at the monthly line, the price of U.S. oil (WTI) reached as high as $26 per barrel at the beginning of last year, but crude oil in May, June and July this year was so low that it couldn't even stop at $13, a drop of half. With crude oil falling by half, the cost of neoprene has fallen by at least a third, if not by half, and the price of natural rubber has fallen by less than 20%. Chang Tianhao smiled and asked, "What is the difference between the two situations when they are compared together?"

A halving drop in primary raw materials will inevitably lead to a halving drop in finished products? This is certainly not possible, because a product has labor costs in addition to raw materials. The most typical is as Chang Tianhao has commented on the era, saying that "crude oil was 140 US dollars per barrel in 08, and it was less than 70 in 18 years, but the price of gasoline actually rose, and we were all charged barrel tax...... This kind of remarks will laugh at a glance, and the raw materials have fallen by half and the finished products have fallen by half? Could it be that the labor costs (wages) used for production have also fallen by half? On the contrary, most people's nominal wages have risen, and in 10 years, there have been three times if not five times.

Attacking with a barrel tax alone is not identifying the target of the problem, but most people don't want to figure out the reason, just venting, that's another matter.

Hearing Chang Tianhao mention the price changes between crude oil and neoprene, Brother Chao scratched his head a little embarrassedly: "I don't know much about this difference, there are a lot of procurement data in the factory and it is confidential, it is difficult for me to grasp all of them and I don't have time to compare, and more importantly, neoprene is not a standard product, there are all kinds of additives, which completely distorts the origin." ”

"There is a word in economics called price elasticity, two varieties that can be substituted and interchangeable with each other, once one of them has a large price fluctuation, it will affect the demand ......" Chang Tianhao knocked on the plate of Dongpo meat and steamed sea bass, "Assuming that the price of meat doubles tomorrow, will you consider buying less meat and more fish when you go to the vegetable market to buy vegetables?" As everyone buys less meat and more fish, the price of meat will slowly fall and the price of fish will gradually rise, and this trend will definitely appear as long as it takes a long time, which is a strong price elasticity. Of course, there are others, such as rice and flour can be used as staple foods, if the price of rice suddenly starts to double tomorrow, will you skip meals and eat steamed buns as the staple food because flour is cheap?"

"It's not good, I can't get used to eating that thing, I can adjust it occasionally, I have to be crazy to eat it every day. ”

"This is weak price elasticity, which will have an impact, but the adjustment elasticity is not very large. Natural rubber and artificial rubber basically belong to the strong elasticity, when the use of neoprene is more economical, will fully squeeze the natural rubber market, which is the limiting factor of the continuous decline of natural rubber. As you just said, it is not because of the high price of raw material inventory, or because of the trouble of renovating the production line, and it is not just a casual adjustment, so not every factory will abandon natural rubber when it sees that neoprene is cheap, which are two different things. Chang Tianhao smiled, "Now the question is, does the trend of Tianjiao only look at the cost and crude oil? Of course not." Rubber, as a public material, will definitely be affected by the economic environment, is the economic situation good this year?"

"It's not very good, the export problem is not small, the Southeast Asian market is not easy to sell, and you can't collect money when you sell it; there is still domestic demand, but it is a troublesome thing to return the funds, and the grandsons will say: Now the price has fallen, then didn't you sell it to me at the beginning, and you must count less before you are willing to pay......" Brother Chao said indignantly, "The raw materials were so expensive when I bought them, and then they were cheaper, but they didn't listen, what can be done? ”

"So......" Chang Tianhao stopped Brother Chao from continuing to complain, and concluded succinctly, "The fundamental reversal has not yet come, the general trend has not reversed, Tianjiao wants to start going to the sky?"