Chapter 49: Chang Wu
PS: Yesterday's chapter number was wrong......
“…… The next 10 years will be 10 years of rapid economic expansion and rapid take-off of China's economy, if you are not sure of this conclusion, then there is no need to do any investment strategy, the more you do, the more you are wrong, only by believing in this conclusion, that China is in an upward period, that China's national fortunes are about to usher in a great promotion curve, there is a basis for further discussion.
I think the starting point for take-off in the next 10 years is now – the process of taking Hong Kong's financial defense as a landmark event and actively embracing globalization ......"
Chang Tianhao glanced at everyone in the audience with blazing eyes, and said in a rather imposing language: "Last week, Stanley Drakenmiller, the Hong Kong-based fund manager of Soros's Quantum Fund, openly called out, saying that no matter how the Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervenes, international speculators will snipe at the linked exchange rate and defeat the Hong Kong government. He also said that Hong Kong's economy is in recession, and the fundamental factors cannot be reversed, and the quantum fund will win the final victory in short-selling the Hong Kong dollar and the futures index. All the government does is give speculators the opportunity to make a profit......
Behind him is a $22 billion quantum fund, as well as an army of speculators...... But who won in the end? Hong Kong is still that Hong Kong, and the linked exchange rate is still that linked exchange rate, and Drakenmiller's remarks have only added to the joke of the press.
Although international speculators still refuse to admit defeat and ponder continuing to deploy in the September contract, in my opinion, it is nothing more than the end of the crossbow.
Hong Kong's victory in the financial defense war is a very typical crisis prevention and control, marking that the Southeast Asian financial crisis, which has lasted for nearly two years, has finally entered the final stage...... In the early days of the plague, it was menacing and sweeping all sides, and after we adopted measures such as disinfection, isolation, and culling, the lethality of the plague became weaker and weaker, and finally after the weakest individuals fell, the individuals who survived and experienced severe tests will have better space for development.
In this economic Darwinian screening, although the domestic economy has experienced challenges such as insufficient start-up, sluggish domestic demand, triangular debt, and the pain of state-owned enterprise reform and transformation, it has withstood the test. The courage and commitment of the Chinese government, as well as its wisdom in the battle to defend the financial sector, prove that China is qualified to participate in global economic competition and has the foundation for comprehensive opening up.
I can predict with great optimism that in the next two to three years, China will not only be able to join the WTO, but will also be able to join the WTO with a relatively preferential status and status as a developing country, which not only affirms China's effective work in preventing and controlling the plague, but also believes that the Chinese that have withstood the test of the plague will shine on the international stage...... If Hong Kong's economy is in a state of decay and the country is in shambles, who would dare to invite us to participate in this kind of international division of labor?"
Will the battle to defend Hong Kong be won? It depends on whose standpoint we stand on.
Standing on the position of the Hong Kong government, of course, it won, the Hong Kong government started from 6,500 points to support the market, and gritted its teeth until 7,800 points, and took more than 1,000 points of profit from the ups and downs in the middle;
Did the international speculators lose? Apparently not.
Speculators did not succeed in the foreign exchange market, the linked exchange rate system is stable, but at most only lost interest money, and they still made a vote on stocks, the quantum fund at the beginning of the average position opening point in more than 9,000 points, and then all the way to press, all the way to fight, retreat settlement is at most 7,800 points, there are still more than 1,000 points of nearly 1,500 points of profit. Later, there was data that Soros took more than 150 billion Hong Kong dollars, but no one knows for sure.
Futures are negative sum transactions, and neither side loses, so who loses?
Institutional investors and retail investors who do not believe in the fate of Hong Kong!
Other investors who don't believe the Hong Kong government's statements, Beijing's assurances – they have been slapped in the face.
That's why Chang Tianhao came to a conclusion: If you believe in the "theory of China's economic collapse" that appears from time to time in the foreign media, and you have no confidence in the country's future, then don't make any investments, and do more wrong......
“…… After all, there are nearly 200 countries in the world, and the truly developed ones are only about 10, at most about 20. One plus will fly, can you make good use of this ticket, can you grasp the historical opportunity, just subjective want is not enough, but also objectively have the conditions, my conclusion has just been explained in numbers, China just has this kind of conditions, with the appropriate system, a large number of high-quality working population - demographic dividend. ”
Chang Tianhao smiled: "Please keep in mind that the demographic dividend is composed of 4 dimensions, all of which are indispensable. Appropriate system - this is the institutional advantage, large number - this is the quantitative advantage, high quality - this is the quality advantage, working population - this is the resource advantage. If you take out some of it, the whole logic of the state of affairs does not exist.
For example, if there is no proper system, there is only a population, which is India, which cannot be properly organized, if there is no large number, that is Singapore, at most there is a small industry, and there is no working population, such as Canada, which is full of highly educated people, but no one wants to go to the production line to turn the screws......
China's economic take-off in the next 10 years, on the construction of this kind of demographic dividend, after joining the WTO means that China's vast market and labor force will be fully connected with the global capital and market, will participate in the international division of labor in a more reasonable, fuller, and more comparative advantage way, and rely on their own diligence, wisdom, volume and tenacity to become the crusher of moderately developed countries!
……
Looking at the next 10 years, I see the following five areas of clear opportunity for investment:
First, the real estate industry. Just now we said that the real estate industry can not only solve the government's financial problems, itself is linked to more than 30 upstream and downstream industries, can be called the pillar of domestic demand, whether it is to invest in specific real estate or real estate development leading enterprises, there will be a lot of income.
Second, the mineral industry. With the full take-off of the economy, the basic bulk materials represented by coal, iron ore, copper, and crude oil will usher in a wave of rise, and futures prices may rise to the point where you doubt your life.
Third, the high-tech industry. On the one hand, computers, networks, mobile phones and other industries with communication and communication functions will usher in rapid development in the next few years; on the other hand, the transformation efficiency of scientific and technological achievements into production and life will leap forward - we are about to usher in a vigorous Internet era.
Fourth, unique advantageous industries. For example, Moutai and Wuliangye in the liquor industry, which cannot be replaced by foreign liquor, and Yunnan Baiyao and Dong'e Ejiao in the national industry, which are not available in foreign cultures.
Fifth, the general civilian consumption industry. This is the inevitable feedback of consumption upgrading after the economic take-off, but it is a process of mud and sand, which must be carefully screened, for example, I think there are great opportunities for development in the home appliance industry, but it is also a home appliance stock, I may be more inclined to Gree than Chunlan.
……”
Chang Tianhao spoke for an hour, and carefully and professionally analyzed the 10 years of economic operation and trajectory that he could recall, relying on data and tables, and no matter what the conclusions were, at least the reasoning and argumentation process was convincing, which was much stronger than the last time he came forward to talk about empty words without any facts to support the politics.
Of course, the empty cannon should also be put off, for example, emphasizing the timing of investment, Chang Fuzi pointed out: "Sometimes there are only two or three steps at an important turning point in history, and the time window is very short, and we will find that there are 80% of the ups and downs of the US stock market in the past half century The main rising wave was completed in 3 months, and if you missed these 3 months, it means that you will have nothing to do with most of the results, the victory of the Hong Kong financial defense war, the turning point is that the 814 Hong Kong government entered the market, after that, all the struggles are in vain; if it is more extreme, sometimes the window of fate is only five minutes, such as World War II, the Japanese Combined Fleet lost the so-called 5 minutes of fate, was killed 4 aircraft carriers in one go, lost the victory of the Battle of Midway and the initiative in the Pacific theater, if there is no 5 minutes or the result reversal, then the situation is not easy to say- The United States may still be able to win, but it will not be as easy as it was later......
Based on the above logic, it is more prudent to let professional people do the investment!"
Gao Yang gave a thumbs up to this, thinking that this was his junior brother setting up a stage and cheering for him - to promote the valet financial management project, but in fact, Chang Tianhao was building momentum for himself and his investment strategy, of course, this is a new century promotion meeting, as a customer representative, he can't blatantly highlight himself, so he is vague.
Although he has achieved great success in the past two months, Chang Tianhao has never defined himself as a trader, his strength lies in medium and long-term investment logic and strategic thinking, and the trader is just starting to practice his hands.
Whether there is vision determines whether it can be successful, and the trader at most determines when it can be achieved - the subtle differences in connotation need to be deeply understood by investors, and if they do not agree, then there is no need to come to invest.
In fact, not many people now take these conclusions directly as a guideline, but the praise of other New Century staff members in front of him for his investment path and brilliant achievements makes everyone feel that Chang Tianhao has goods in his hands and an analyst with achievements to rely on, which is called a master; an analyst without achievements can be said to be the truth, and in the eyes of others, he is also a mouth cannon!
It was the first time for Lu Xiaomin to listen to this kind of meeting in its entirety, and he only felt that Chang Tianhao spoke very high-level, funny and natural, without any disobedience, and compared with what Gao Yang said, he seemed a little anxious - you hurry up and take out the money to invest, and you won't have such a good opportunity after this point in time.
From a professional point of view, she can't tell who is right and who is wrong, but in terms of realm, she feels that Gao Yang has fallen to a level.
Could it be that I was really wrong back then?
Or is it because of Gao Yang's repeated dissatisfaction and affects his mood?
In any case, she bet that if Gao Yang's embezzlement was stabbed out, as many people as there were people present, Chang Tianhao didn't deliberately stab him, which was already very merciful.
But Chang Tianhao's knife stabbed her Lu Xiaomin firmly in her body and heart, or she was stabbed by herself begging for nothing, begging others with tears and grievances.
Man......
。 m.