It's Wednesday in a blink of an eye, on October 17, 2018, the day of the Double Ninth Festival, the sky in Guangzhou is gloomy, in fact, the weather in the last three days has been overcast, and it is secretly raining at night.

Reflected in the stock market, it is also rainy and rainy, the sun is out in the morning, it turns cloudy at noon, and it even begins to fall to a new low in the afternoon, which is also the old routine of the stock market these days.

If there is a big village in the stock market, and the big village is at this level, which is their chief planner, commander, and the person in charge of the general manager is a brain-dead, and his brain is in the water or it is raining in Guangzhou.

Researcher Zhu Ping'an thinks that the risk of the market is not too big, and other researchers agree, but the people in the risk control department disagree, and they almost quarreled during the discussion in the morning.

It's just the relative support of the Fellows of the Department of Decision-Making. "Judging from the valuation level of the capital market, spring is indeed not far away. But the question now is whether we can survive the winter. Li Xunlei, chief economist and director of the research institute of Zhongtai Securities, said this at the 2018 Hangzhou Bay Forum with the theme of financial technology linking the smart future.

Li Xunlei said that the volatility of the capital market reflects the change in the expectations of the outside world for the economy. After a long period of correction in the stock market, valuations have fallen sharply. In terms of valuation level, the overall valuation of many stocks in the past is very high, in terms of the median price-earnings ratio, in 2015, the median price-earnings ratio was 70 times at the highest, and now it is 23 times, which has a certain competitiveness in the world. On the other hand, the supply-side structural reform has made it possible to achieve the goal of stabilizing leverage in the whole society, and the level of some leverage is declining. The crux of the problem lies in whether we can survive the winter," Ye Liteng assistant of the risk control department copied the things on the news," Li Xunlei said, spring is not far away, but many companies can't survive the winter. For example, compared with 2015, our equity pledge problem is even more serious than before, although deleveraging, but assets shrinking. After the asset shrinks, the denominator becomes smaller, and even if the numerator does not change, the leverage ratio rises again. At this time, it is necessary for local governments to consider measures to bail out. We have to survive the winter before we can make it to spring. And now it's only September, I remind you that our risk tolerance is relatively limited, at most 10% risk, if the net value falls by 10%, our risk comes out again. “

"Isn't this nonsense? Even if spring comes, what if there is no cold spring or something, we are in the risk market, and it is inevitable that we must face risks all the time, just like a thief who catches a murderer, can he be caught with his hands tied?"

"yes, that's a lot of nonsense!"

"Nine out of ten is nonsense, and one out of ten is vernacular. ”

The researcher sprayed ruthlessly, and the assistant's face in the risk control department turned purple, but on this occasion, he could only convince people with reason and not move his fists.

The people in the city are relatively civilized, if Goldfinger is in this meeting, he will say why you have been arguing for so long and still not fighting?

The cattle in our countryside sometimes have horns on top of their horns when they don't see the right eye, and they will fight when they are impulsive. "Indeed, the market itself also has the ability to resolve risks, recently, the balance of the two financial has reached a new low has become the focus of market attention, and the two financial customers are also the most important for the brokerages to keep an eye on. The balance of the two financial institutions fell for 5 consecutive days. On October 16, the balance of Shanghai and Shenzhen financial institutions fell to 786.7 billion yuan, a four-year low. This scale is close to the level of November 24, 2014, when the balance of Shanghai and Shenzhen was 782.863 billion yuan. In comparison, since 2015, the lowest point of the balance of Shanghai and Shenzhen financial institutions occurred on May 30, 2016, when the balance of Shanghai and Shenzhen financial institutions was 820.908 billion yuan. According to the report, some brokerages have recently adjusted some terms of margin financing contracts, and the business department has self-inspected the situation of the two financings. According to data from the China Securities Financial Corporation, on October 16, the average guarantee ratio of the whole market was 217.6%. This means that there is still 81% room to decline if you want to fall from the existing position to below the closing line (let's say 120%). Therefore, the two financial institutions have not yet reached a very dangerous time, and some securities firms have adjusted some terms of the two financial agreements, such as adding that Party B has the right to adjust Party A's financing margin ratio according to Party A's credit status, asset status, performance situation, market changes, changes in Party B's financial arrangements and changes in "business rules" and other factors, but Party A should be notified in a timely manner, and the adjusted financing margin ratio shall be subject to the records recorded by Party B's system; Researcher Zhu Ping'an said that his focus was on the financial side.

"Unless it's a big drop in blue chips, or a drop of one or two percent overall, it will lead to a snowball reaction. “

"Blue chips follow the U.S. stock market, if the U.S. stock market falls more than 10 percent, it's possible, but the U.S. stock market fell once last week, and yesterday the U.S. stock market showed a big rally, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 550 points, the best performance since March, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 also rose more than 2%, and the shares of companies such as Apple, Tesla, and Alibaba also rose sharply. Researcher Liu Wenbo also agreed.

"Haha, joke! What a joke! What are you researchers studying? Although the US stock market rose sharply yesterday, there is a huge crisis hidden under its prosperity! The US stock index fell sharply last week, and it is already technically gaining momentum, and now it will rebound, but it will only heal the scars and forget the pain! The rebound in the stock market has made Americans overjoyed, and they will not be able to cry even for fear in the future. "The risk control department is also not optimistic about the U.S. stock market, and even beat it to death.

"One more point, I don't know if you have noticed, is that the US fiscal deficit has hit a six-year high! On the evening of October 15, local time, the U.S. Treasury Department released a major data - in the fiscal year ending September 30, the total U.S. deficit was $779 billion. This figure is not only up 17% from $666 billion in fiscal 2017 but also the highest in six years. As the U.S. fiscal deficit grows, the U.S. government can only rely on borrowing to survive, which will lead to an exacerbated debt crisis in the United States. As of October 17, the total debt of the United States has reached $21.63 trillion, accounting for 110% of the GDP of the United States. Bridgewater Fund, the world's largest hedge fund, recently warned that the U.S. economy may be at an inflection point from fiery to mediocre, and the previous economic growth may have peaked!" Assistant Ye of the Risk Control Department further elaborated on his views, "Let's think about it, think about it seriously, if the inflection point of U.S. economic growth comes, the U.S. stock market is not far from a real crash, and the 10-year bull market that Americans are most proud of will also come to an end! And the end of the U.S. bull market is the beginning of the global bear market, how much will we be dragged down?"

"God knows how much of a drag, but is our stock market about to shut down? We've all been listening to it for three and a half years, has the U.S. stock market been down for three and a half years?"

"If the Americans don't do anything good, they may drag us down, but our risk is greatly reduced, I think in the short term, we don't think about the long term, can we seize the opportunity in the short term?"

"The short-term trend is suitable for random strolls, but the medium-term trend, if we are bearish to below 2000 points, I think we may be ahead, but will it fall below 2,000 points in the future, no one can pack a ticket, but after the short-term fall to 2500, it is still feasible, but how much space is there to fall below 2500 or 2500, I think it is currently to the lower track of the descending channel, there is not much space, the risk is two to three percentage points, but at the current point, the chance to buy the right is more than sixty percent, so we will build a three-percent position。 Advance can be attacked, retreat can be defended. “

"Will thirty percent be too little, and half a position is fine?"

"Yes, half a warehouse!!"

"No, now there will be a new low, maybe the stock index will slip a hundred points or a long yin, our risk control department does not agree to the current position. “

"Why don't you ask Mr. Jin, it's up to him to decide!"

Although Goldfinger has been having a good time these days, the sky is not beautiful, he has suffered a little cold and a cold.

Wang Yong called in the past, the signal was not very good, and it took a long time for Goldfinger to understand what it meant, that is, whether to take some risks to enter the market at present.

"Oh, is the risk manageable?" asked Goldfinger.

"It's hard to say, there is also a possibility of the last fall in the short term, but when you open a position, you can enter the market when it falls, and the risk will be smaller. ”

"What is the situation of the people now?"

"Most of the shareholders are resigned to fate. ”

"Do they want it to go up?"

"Think, people's hearts rise!"

"Just help them, I won't go to hell, who-ahhhh ”

In fact, Goldfinger wanted to say, I don't go to hell, you just do, just don't come up in one breath, sneeze, and hang up the phone.

Wang Yong was a little speechless, but thinking of this sentence I don't go to hell, who entered, and was greatly inspired, thinking that everyone may be too sensitive to risk tolerance, afraid of risk, dare not bear the risk, so try to plan in advance, in fact, the market is not transferred by human will, and affected by all aspects, only enter the market, gnosis, a little faster than others is good.

At this time, I don't go to hell, whoever enters, it's more of a kind of bearing, the market has fallen to this point, what are you afraid of, at most it is to hold some time.

Moreover, half of the position can be in and out, in and out, in and out, and in and out, and in and out of position, the key is to set it down.

If you don't set the tone, you can't unfold. Wang Yong is most afraid that everyone will fight each other, especially the risk control department, always emphasizing the risk, of course it is okay if it rises, and he is not responsible if it falls, and even said that we have said that the current market is not good, you have to buy it, it is really stupid or something.

Who wouldn't say cool words, what the company lacks now is the shoulder that dares to take responsibility.

Not before, and now it's rare.

Fortunately, there is Mr. Kim.

Mr. Jin is young, does not slip his head, and even dares to do things, this is a responsible person.

Therefore, when the market was weak on Wednesday and then dived to a new low, Wang Yong decisively bought back the five pharmaceutical stocks recommended by Goldfinger last week, because these are falling fiercely, and even hitting new lows in the near future, and there is obviously a feeling of going to hell.

Especially the pharmaceutical stocks that were bearish in the first two days, who didn't go to hell, I went in, and I copied a very low position opening point.

And today's market is also twists and turns, the morning market in the peripheral stock market under the influence of the rise of the high open, and then the Shenzhen market is unable to rise, the downward hit a new low, then the Shanghai market to create a new low of 2517 points, and then the gem index approaching 1200 points, domestic chips, domestic software rose sharply, driving the market to achieve a V-shaped reversal, just four minutes, the stock index reversed and closed out of the red plate, although it is still a weak market, but at a new low to the bottom, or not much risk.

The key is that everyone has their own ideas, and when it comes to action, what kind of state is important.

In fact, the next decision is so difficult!

It's harder to make a good decision!