Chapter 17 of the new book "Fear: *** in the White House" states that Gary Cohn, the former director of the White House National Economic Council, tried in vain to popularize economic common sense on trade issues. Cohen repeatedly explained to *** that the U.S. economy is now dominated by the service industry, and it should not be forced to use taxes and other means to keep the manufacturing industry in the United States and engage in trade protectionism according to the concept of decades ago.

And with the support of Peter Navarro, director of trade and industrial policy and director of the National Trade Council, he is convinced that globalization has cost many Americans their jobs, and cheap goods from countries such as China and Mexico have created huge trade deficits that have hurt the U.S. economy. This chapter reveals the psychology of launching a trade war from a certain angle, as well as the conflict between the two senior staff.

The cover of the new book "Fear: *** in the White House".

The new book exposes the inside story of the trade war:

Repeated persuasion by the think tank was unsuccessful

Chapter 17 deals with trade war issues, as translated by the Observer:

During the election campaign, the U.S. trade agreement was attacked as fiercely as Hillary Clinton. In his view, the current U.S. trade agreement allows cheap foreign goods to pour into the U.S., thus taking jobs away from American workers.

At a June 2016 rally at a scrap metal facility in Pennsylvania, he called the loss of industrial jobs a "politician-led disaster" and "a consequence of the leadership's worship of globalization without regard for the American spirit." As a result, "our politicians have deprived the people of the means they have to provide for their families...... Send our jobs, our wealth, and our factories to other countries in Mexico and overseas. He criticized "Hillary Clinton and her friends in the global financial field for trying to scare the United States and let us not be too ambitious." ”

Almost all economists disagree with ***, but he found someone who hated free trade as much as he did. Bring the economist to the White House and appoint him director of trade and industrial policy and director of the National Trade Council.

That man is Peter Navarro, 67, who has a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University. "It's the president's vision," Mr. Navarro said publicly, "and it's my job as an economist to provide basic analysis to confirm his intuition." His instincts were always right on these issues. ”

Gary Cohen believes that the trade deficit is irrelevant and can be a good thing, allowing Americans to buy cheaper goods. Because prices are competitive, goods from Mexico, Canada, and China are pouring into the U.S. Americans save money on those imported goods, leaving more money to spend on other products, services, and savings. That's where the efficiency of the global market comes in.

Cohen and Navarro clashed. At a meeting in the Oval Office, Cohen said in front of *** and Navarro that 99.9999% of the world's economists agree with him. Cohen's words are basically true, but he is isolated. Navarro picked up and called Cohen "a Wall Street idiot." ”

Agree with Navarro's core argument that the U.S. trade deficit is driven by factors such as high tariffs imposed by countries like China, currency manipulation, intellectual property theft, sweatshop labor, and lax environmental controls. As predicted, Navarro said, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has sucked the blood of U.S. manufacturing, turning Mexico into a manufacturing powerhouse while driving U.S. workers to relief facilities. U.S. steelworkers were laid off and steel prices fell. Tariffs should be imposed on imported steel.

"If you shut up and listen to me, you might learn something. Cohen didn't budge and said to Navarro. In Mr. Cohen's eyes, Goldman Sachs, where he worked at Goldman Sachs, has always focused on research, data and facts. Anytime you enter a meeting, you should have more documented information than anyone else in the room.

"The problem is that Peter came here and said so much, but there were no facts to back it up," Cohen said. And I have the facts in my hands. Previously, he sent *** a paper that delved into the service economy. But Cohen knew that *** didn't watch it, and probably never will. Hate doing homework.

"Mr. President," Cohen tried to summarize, "America is to you what Norman Rockwell is like to him." The U.S. economy is not what it used to be. Today, more than 80% of U.S. GDP comes from the service sector. Cohen knows it's 84 percent, but he doesn't want to be accused of inflating the numbers, and Goldman Sachs' style is to be careful to round down.

"Think about it, sir, you are walking down a street in Manhattan today compared to what you were twenty or thirty years ago. Cohen picked out a familiar intersection from his memory as an example, "Twenty years ago, Gap (clothing retailer), Banana Republic (clothing retailer), **** and a local retailer occupied four corners of that street. Banana republics and Gape are no longer there, or rather they live in their own shadows. The local retailer is also gone. Only **** is still standing. Now it's Starbucks, nail salon and **** that's open. They all belong to the service industry. ”

"So when you walk down Madison Avenue or Third Avenue or Second Avenue today, what you see is dry cleaners, food stores, restaurants, Starbucks and nail salons, no more small, independent hardware stores and clothing stores. Think about it, who do you rent office space in *** building?"

"One of the main tenants in that building was the largest bank in China (ICBC)." Cohen asked, "Is there a retailer?" *** replied, "There's Starbucks, and there's a restaurant on the ground floor." Oh no, there are two more restaurants underground. ”

"That's right," Cohen said, "so your retail space is now selling services, not shoes, durables, or appliances." That's the current state of America in the U.S., so more than 80 percent of our economy comes from the service sector. If we spend less and less on tangible goods, we can have more disposable income to spend on services, or do the incredible thing – save. ”

Cohen found himself almost having to shout to be heard. "Listen," he said, "our trade deficit will only go down when it's like the 2008 financial crisis." The trade deficit is declining because our economy is contracting. If you want to reduce the trade deficit, we can do it, we just need to destroy the economy!"

"On the other hand," Cohen said, "if there were no tariffs, no import quotas, no protectionism, no trade wars — we did the right thing, the trade deficit would have gotten higher." "When the trade deficit was rising month by month, Cohen went to ***, who became increasingly anxious. "Your Excellency, I told you it was going to happen," Cohen said, "and that's a good sign, not a bad sign." ”

"I went to some places in Pennsylvania that used to be big steel towns, but now it's deserted and no one has a job to do there. "You may be right, Your Excellency, but remember that 100 years ago there were many towns that specialized in the production of carriages and whips, and no one has that kind of work today." They have to reinvent themselves. If you go to a state like Colorado, you'll find that the unemployment rate is only 2.6 percent because the people there are constantly innovating. ”

Saying, "This has nothing to do with what I'm saying," *** doesn't like any of Cohen's arguments, and doesn't buy it. Cohen brought with him Lawrence Lindsay, an economist at Harvard University who held Cohen's current position in the George W. Bush administration. Lindsey asked bluntly, "Why do you take the time to think about our trade deficit? If we can buy cheap products from abroad, we can make a difference in other areas, such as the service industry and the high-tech industry. The global market has brought great benefits to Americans. ”

Ask, "Why don't we make things domestically? We're a manufacturing country." Lindsey said that the United States is indeed making products, but the status quo does not quite match the ideas in ***'s head. The president can't let go of his outdated notion that he sees America as a locomotive, factories with huge chimneys, and workers busy with assembly lines.

Cohen collected all available economic data showing that American workers were not eager to work in assembly plants. Each month, Cohen presents his latest Job Openings and Turnover Survey (JOLTS, surveyed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics). Because he always doesn't open which pot in front of ***, Cohen even feels that he is very annoying. It's pretty much the same every time this investigation is submitted to ***, and Cohen doesn't care.

"Mr. President, can I show you this?" Cohen expanded the data page, "Look, the largest number of people who voluntarily quit their jobs are from the manufacturing industry. "I don't understand. "*** said.

Cohen tried to explain, "I could sit in a nice office with air conditioning and a desk, or stand up and work 8 hours a day. What kind of work would you be willing to do for the same salary?" he adds, "People don't want to stand in front of a 2,000-degree blast furnace or go down to a coal mine and get black lung disease." With the same amount of dollars, they will choose other professions. "*** still don't buy it.

On a couple of occasions, Cohen asked directly, "Why do you have these ideas?" and said, "I just have, I've been holding these ideas for 30 years." "That doesn't mean it's right, for 15 years, I thought I could play professional football, but that doesn't mean I'm right." ”

That's right.. After all, only the production of products to overcome problem solving and achieve goals. These sources are practical problems. to be able to innovate. You have to be meticulous to understand the situation of the actual combat problem and understand it clearly. How to deal with problem 2: What exactly is lacking in failure or defect. How to adjust to the best, but also suitable for operational combat, such an innovation can also be adjusted to meet the needs of the post. or the needs of the respective professional problem objectives. But there is no waste of resources in person. It's different from all kinds of plays. Innovation is too thin. It's too wasteful. It is necessary to have participants who can innovate according to their own and customer requirements. It is even possible to creatively adapt innovations rather than just meeting customer needs. and even bootstrap the demand. in order to solve customer pain points. So manufacturing is the foundation. Second, exercise the literacy of chasing dreams. It is conducive to actual combat warfare and combat. How to sit in the office, how to endure and the exertion of coolies can withstand the toss and improve the survival rate. , how to carry it to the battlefield. To develop the whole people in an all-round way, it is not about sitting and waiting to die and eat. Secondly, all-round development, the top-notch wisdom is only a one-sided development. Pull out a whole bunch of people who know wisdom. to develop into such a world. But the force is poor. It's not extinction yet. So we have to engage in manufacturing. Such hands-on ability. Self-sufficient, well-fed. Second, you think the top leaders are contributing to share theories. Isn't it for you to step on this cornerstone and climb higher? Isn't it based on labor? Only then can we have a certain amount of endurance to deal with theories and battles on the battlefield? You also need to know how to fight. Only then can they command soldiers to deal with various campaign situations, and they don't even know how to imagine command in actual combat if they don't even know how to do their own operational skills? What about the problem of being able to move at the mercy of one's own hands to deal with the situation around oneself? Therefore, it is necessary to know how to participate in combat in order to innovate and manufacture. And the manufacturing production work of various enterprises. It is also the first line of product creation. How can we not need people to produce and take it lightly? In this way, innovation can be in line with actual combat. Innovate for the sake of fighting, not innovating for the sake of innovating. No scientific hypotheses were made. In order to deal with the scientific hypothesis of survival and development, it may be problematic to innovate. Meaningful to innovate. It is good to seek survival and development. Otherwise, it is easy to deviate from the direction of the main line of development.

As long as you spread some of the beauty of sitting and enjoying life, it is perfect. Let the spirit flutter and be full of superiority. At every turn, it is garbage, or it will gradually expand over the next few generations, and more people will have such thoughts. Swell. Discrimination is low and loveless. And the lower level is bullied from the school child onwards. In this way, you can get guns and take revenge on those who bully the low-level. Even the innocent are involved. There are also all kinds of darkness. would rather be dark than disdain this fluttering upper class of society. So the dark light conflict is more intense. After all, more people don't like it. And the poor can't afford to play fluttering and go to oppose such a so-called upper class. So definitely going to the dark more. The differentiation between high and low grades is more severe. The gap between rich and poor is even greater. Accumulate resentment and two erupt into more conflicts. Even the extremist forces of terror were born. There are also anti-human organizations that specialize in playing with their lives. Therefore, it is necessary to create internal conflicts or to oppose the world and remain alone. is the best strategy. It is conducive to independent development of each other. Such internal and external conflicts. Knowing the dark mistakes to unite labor to build good. Defending the homeland is realistic, and such conflicts will kill each other. And then there is no adjustment within such groups. The power of drifting immortals and going to darkness and poverty has been strengthened, and they can't afford to play with fluttering immortals, and even morality and love have gradually collapsed, religion is not credible, and so on. There's a process. This gradually erodes the bottom and moral goodness. Love in the heart. This sense of superiority is poisonous. It's such a conflict. In less than a few decades, hundreds of years, this group will decline because of conflict. And this sense of superiority. The connotation is becoming more and more scarce. What is always the first good. Don't be well-rounded. Don't go narrower and narrower. Multi-labor officers are used as the basis to find problems and innovate in the application of combat. Take on the specific issues of people's human life. And the application of innovation guidance experience is also the need to study the needs of people, officers and people to innovate, and the actual needs to innovate and guide the experience, so the labor officer manufacturing frontier practical problems. How can such a manufacturing product to live in an environment that does not give up labor to build a better world. Experience life in a variety of ways. It's not good to think that you don't want to work and be low. Such so-called wisdom. Just stupid. The walk is getting narrower and narrower, and there is no cutting-edge combat to understand the needs of labor and the needs of all aspects of professionalism. Second, it's just a matter of what kind of weapon. Innovation is getting worse and worse, being surpassed and can only be profited by war. A world war is not a dream. It is necessary to diversify the strategic layout of things and plan for development.

Secondly, for a game. An individual who has risen to the top of his profession. You can fight for challenges with confidence. Failure can't come again, but the new generation, how to seek to become strong, so crushed by the people in front of them, can't be compared in all aspects. To strengthen competition, or disdain to take such a road, relying on the accumulation of actual combat to overcome various rhythm problems and apply the powerful path of different opponents in actual combat, or just have fun and do whatever it takes. Some people work hard from the low-level, some people fall to the death, some people are guided by hard work, some people have advantages, some people go from the low level to the high, some people go from the high to the low, all kinds of people have it, for the people who struggle, the result of going to the top is to chase the superiority of the first fluttering immortal, or to maintain their own inner values and beauty, such the belief that the first is beautiful. Is it in line with each other's interests and spiritual needs? Spending a lot of time to go to the top still fails, suffers. Or is it better to have fun? Is the new generation willing to spend time fighting? Is it worth it to fight hard for the spiritual belief that it is the first in the end? After all, a truly kind family with loving people disdain to chase like this, and prefer to dream of their own beauty to contribute, whether the new generation will make dreams, and the top-notch contribution of dreaming is ultimately for the one-sided backward values of the first. How can we make peace and unity, be strong, have love and continue to dream? Is this the right path. Do you have to fight to change such a group? and some are poor, have no guidance, although they aspire to contribute. But for them, the good upper class is this kind of culture because there is no one to guide it. How to attract artificial dreams and struggle to create dreams. In this way, the good in the heart is flawed. And the reality of the poor, such as the bullying can not be tolerated by some people. I had to face the reality of poverty. Prefer to accept people of the same kind to keep warm. There is no one to guide you, go to the place where you vent, and meet people with wrong values. There is a greater probability of falling together. There are also those who cling to their dreams. But we have to face the dregs of such an upper-class culture, and the ideology and values are one-sided. To make dreams, we must be wonderful and responsible, not the first first, always the first. Such reality rages. Fuck you first. But he worked silently and persevered. and with social unrest affecting lives. Various reasons. It affects the survival of work, and there are also challenges that affect all kinds of good, kind and friendly words and deeds of oneself. When some of the lower levels go to the depraved and the dark people break out, see all kinds of darkness and guns erupt, whether it is reasonable or unreasonable conflict fighting and fighting. Dead people are not good, and it is not conducive to safety to dream. These people are more nervous and stressed. The pressure is mounting. It is getting farther and farther away from a beautiful dream and colorful life, and it is powerless to change and maintain kindness and diligence. When the people complain, when someone has ulterior motives. They long for someone to step up and guide them to a beautiful dream. Being misled to believe in mistakes can easily lead people to create wars and degenerate. Seduced by darkness. Kindness is taken advantage of. So the human crisis is coming.

The solution must be to engage in manufacturing. Self-sufficient. can also silently digest the problems of their own survival and development. The success of the officer, improve the ability to realize the value. Real skills to seek development. They can support themselves, they can unite each other, they have money, they live naturally, they communicate better, they are more united. Don't be unemployed and unwilling to work. Reluctant to do simple things. I believe that more people are willing to work and go to manufacturing. Otherwise, how can you even dream of supporting yourself. Therefore, the argument of not working is wrong. Is it ulterior motives, or unknown, or is it being used? Engage in manufacturing silently, encounter things and factors to adapt to the ability to exercise work, and can harvest skills, develop in an all-round way, and even start a business, understand the operation of related industries and teams, and the operation of various internal parts, and make money to support themselves, to develop, and to change the reality of the bad situation, and to ignite hope. This kind of seeking change in one's own situation can also change the status quo of society, and exercising various qualities is conducive to dreaming. On the road to dreaming, there are various abilities that require patience, and at the same time, high-level assistance low-level to become powerful. In order to assist each other, we are more willing to work hard to create dreams, go to the top, lay a foundation for long-term dreams, and contribute. After all, not everyone can rely on their own to stick to the good, even if it is bad, stick to the good in their hearts, and it is in line with the long-term, so it is easy for people to be down-to-earth when they participate in production, even if they are like me, don't I also work and dream?