1387 [Stock Market Forecast]
Half an hour later, the Tokyo stock market kicked off. Pen @ fun @ pavilion wWw. ļ½ļ½ļ½Uļ½Eć ļ½ļ½ļ½ļ½
As soon as the market opened, the Nikkei continued to fall.
Seeing the falling numbers on the screen, Xia and Liang Botao were very excited.
The rest of my colleagues were disgraced.
"It's miserable, it's miserable, I don't know how much it will fall today. ā
"Why hasn't the Japanese government announced a bailout, is it really going to watch the Tokyo stock market collapse?"
"At least people still dare to open the market, like our Hong Kong directly announced the suspension of the market. Made, these stocks are all smashed in your hands. As soon as the market opens, I don't know how much money I will lose. ā
They talked a lot.
"Botao, how much do you guess the Nikkei will fall again this time?" asked Summer with a smile.
"It shouldn't fall too much. Because Japan's economy is on a very good footing, it has recovered and developed very quickly after the war. Especially after the signing of the Plaza Agreement, the domestic economy has been unprecedentedly prosperous. Liang Botao analyzed, "The collapse of the Tokyo stock market should only be affected by the U.S. stock market." After this impact is digested by the people, Japan will definitely take the lead in rebounding. ā
Summer listened to his analysis and nodded. As far as he knew, Japan's economic bubble in the previous life was not punctured until the 90s. The previous eight or seven stock market crashes should have only caused it to suffer a little skin injury, and it was unlikely to hurt its muscles and bones.
Of course, this was the case in a previous life. Whether there will be changes in this life, whether the bubble will be punctured in advance, no one can say, we have to watch carefully.
"What do you think about the U.S. stock market?" asked Xia with a smile, "Will it be like in 1929, when it falls sharply for several days in a row, and the Great Recession will affect it for ten years?"
"I can't think it's that bad. Today, the United States and the Soviet Union are the two major hegemons in the world, and although their strength is not as strong as it was after the war, they still have the leadership of the world, which is enough to pass on their own crises and lead to disasters. Liang Botao waved his hand.
ā¦ā¦
In the early post-war period, the United States was the only hegemon in the Western world. Because its homeland was not destroyed by war, the losses of the United States were insignificant compared to the bombed Britain, the captured France, and the defeated Germany, Italy, and Japan.
Moreover, a few years before the start of the war, it did not invest in it, but made a lot of war money left and right, and also took the opportunity to grab quite a lot of profits. Therefore, after the war, the United States was truly the world's largest power, and it was not even a little stronger.
The Marshall Plan promoted by it enabled Britain, France, Germany, Italy and other European countries to quickly recover their national strength after the war, and also successfully established their status as the big brother of the Western world.
The Bresengton system, which was dominated by it, established the dollar as the world's currency. Since then, the paper produced by the United States has become a treasure comparable to gold, and the United States is tantamount to having the world's largest and most unlimited super gold mine.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which it advocates, has become the largest military organization in the world, with strong strength and advanced weapons, and no one dares to provoke it. And its greatest significance is that it gives the United States the power to dictate European affairs. Since then, Europe has basically become the little brother of the United States, and it is the only one who looks ahead.
However, after successive defeats in the ** War and the South Vietnam War, the hegemonic image of the United States has been severely challenged, exposing its fierce and inward-looking side.
In particular, the South Vietnam War lasted 20 years, 14 years longer than World War II, and cost $300 billion, turning the US treasury from a surplus to a deficit, and from the world's largest rich man to the world's largest creditor.
The South Vietnam War also indirectly led to the collapse of the Bresonton system, which severely damaged the dollar's status as a world currency, and further caused the US economy to decline, which triggered a decade-long economic recession.
But despite this, the United States is still the most powerful country in the world, and it can still exert strong influence over other countries. For example, the Plaza Accord two years ago coerced the currencies of the two major economic powers, the Federal Republic of Germany and Japan, to appreciate.
Therefore, if there is a real possibility of a tragedy like that of 1929, it will also find a way to pass on the crisis and let others take the blame for itself.
And it is also worth mentioning that before the stock market crash in 1929, the entire capitalist world was booming, with an unprecedented economic boom, which was hailed as a golden age. Therefore, once it collapses, the people will become more panicked and irrational, and the destructive consequences will naturally be more serious.
However, before the stock market crash, the U.S. economy was hovering at a low level, so the people's psychological tolerance was much stronger. Confidence is the most important thing for the stock market, once you have confidence in the stock market, no matter how high the index is, it can be pushed up. And if confidence in the stock market is lost, no one will be willing to support the index no matter how low it falls. People's confidence has not collapsed, so the US stock market is still saved.
In addition, in 1929, the United States did not have much restraint on the stock market, so those greedy capitalists were allowed to stir the clouds and rain in the stock market, which led to disastrous consequences.
But the U.S. government is much more rigorous in its management of the stock market today than it was 60 years ago. And after many stock market crashes, I also have some experience in how to save the stock market. It would also prevent the stock market from crashing, as it did in 1929.
Therefore, in Liang Botao's view, the severity of this stock market crash will not be greater than that of 1929.
ā¦ā¦
"Makes sense. After listening to this, Summer nodded.
Although he does not know how the US Government bailed out the market during the stock market crash of '87, he does know how after the subprime mortgage crisis, the United States led the flood to the east, beggar-thy-neighbor, and transferred its own crisis to the whole world.
Originally, the mortgage crisis was caused by Wall Street in the United States, but apart from the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the despisy of Wall Street around the world, the impact on the American economy was quite limited.
In contrast, Iceland went bankrupt, and the five European countries Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, and Italy fell into debt crisis and were on the verge of bankruptcy, all of which were affected by the United States.
"Now it's up to the U.S. government to bail out the market. If the measures are done properly and the bailout is timely, I think the US stock market will recover soon. Liang Botao added, "Of course, if the rescue is unfavorable, the U.S. stock market is likely to fall again." ā
Summer nodded. After listening to Liang Botao's words, he felt that he should stop in moderation and began to deploy to buy the bottom.
Although the U.S. stock market may still fall, it is acceptable for the summer, and it can still make him a lot of money.
Just as he was about to call Michelle and get her ready to get ready to take the bottom, at this moment, he heard the phone ring.
When I picked it up, it was Mr. Shen Bi who called.
"Mr. Shen Bi, why did you call me?" Xia said with half surprise and half joy in his heart when he heard this.
"Mr. Xia, can you come to the Hong Kong Governor's Mansion?" asked Shen Bi.
"The Governor's Mansion?!" was stunned in the summer.
"Yes, I hope you can come soon. Shen Bi nodded.
"What's the matter?" asked Summer, confused.
"It's hard to talk on the phone, but you'll know when you get there. Shen Bi said mysteriously.
When Summer heard him say this, she had no choice but to nod, "Okay then, then I'll rush over as soon as possible." ā
"Mr. Xia, what is Mr. Shen Bi looking for you?" Liang Botao asked curiously.
"He didn't say anything on the phone, he just told me to go to the Hong Kong Governor's Office. Summer waved his hand and said, "Did you say he guessed something, so he wanted to warn me not to take advantage of the fire?"
"I don't think so. If we take advantage of the fire to rob it, and we won't rob HSBC, it won't pose any threat to it, so why should he do it. Liang Botao shook his head and said, "Mr. Xia, did you say that he would ask you to discuss the plan to save the city?"
"Uh......" Summer was stunned for a moment, thought for a moment, and then nodded, "It's possible." ā
He is now the chairman of Wenhe Group, the second richest person in Hong Kong, and a tycoon in the business world.
If the Hong Kong government wants to save the market, it must need a rich man like him. Not to mention how much money he spent to save the market, just his statement can boost the confidence of shareholders.
In "The Great Era", Fang Zhanbo finally fought with the Ding family's five crabs, and wanted to borrow luck from Li Jiacheng, Huo Yingdong, and He Hongshen. And when the stockbrokers heard that the three richest men were sweeping the goods, they were all jubilant, which also showed the influence of the three of them in the business world.
Although "The Great Era" is just a TV series, the reason why it is filmed like this is also derived from reality and based on reality.
"Then what will you do, do you really want to save the market?" Liang Botao asked again.
If the Hong Kong stock market recovers too quickly, they won't be profitable.
"Don't worry, I know it. Summer smiled.
He wants fame and fortune this time, and he wants to gain fame and fortune.