Chapter 33: The Lever of Madness
What is the easiest way to make money in the world?
Maybe everyone has their own opinion.
They are at different levels, and they will extend according to their own level and think that they think the most profitable way.
For example, a vendor who sets up a stall may think that the most profitable way to make money is to set up a stall from a small rural town to New York.
Or a banker, he may think that opening his bank all over the world is the most profitable way.
Theoretically, the banker's way is the easiest way to make money.
This way is to make money with other people's money.
As a super hanger, Zhao Jiangchuan is naturally very clear about this routine.
But he knows better that if you want to make more money, you have to have more capital.
From the perspective of the times, he knows exactly what kind of outcome Southeast Asian countries will face.
Under the financial crisis, currency depreciation, real estate crash, stock market crash.
The four little tigers who were alive and well were beaten and turned into a caterpillar.
In this case, short selling the stock market, short selling real estate, and short selling the currencies of various countries is undoubtedly the most profitable way.
But there's an almost irreconcilable problem.
When the economies of various countries collapse, their stock markets and real estate will fall across the board.
If you want to short sell the assets of these countries, you have to convert them into the currencies of your own countries.
It is only after the currency in circulation has been converted into the national currency that it is possible to short the assets of these countries.
Take Thailand, for example.
If you want to short the Thailand SET index, you must convert the international currency into the Thai baht.
It's just that in the total collapse of the economies of various countries, the baht will also depreciate.
It is likely that the baht discount earned will not be able to make up for the discount in the US dollar.
Unless it is in the international foreign exchange market, it is a short position to sell a forward foreign exchange contract.
However, this is tantamount to drinking soup behind international capital and throwing too much money into it, which is unrealistic.
Singapore, New York, London and Chicago combined, the four major foreign exchange futures markets, the daily turnover of Thai baht is only a few hundred million US dollars.
Under this kind of trading volume, if Zhao Jiangchuan enters in advance, he will definitely be destroyed by the Thai government.
Monetary currency, as the name suggests, is actually a kind of goods.
It is equivalent to the exchange symbol of a country's goods.
In the forex futures market, there is a limit on the trading volume, but in the cash market there is no such limit.
You only need to borrow a large amount of Thai baht from the bank, short the stock index in the stock market, sell the baht in the spot market, and return it to the bank when the baht depreciates, and you can earn a large amount of baht.
At that time, even if the Thai baht was no longer valuable, as long as the amount was large, it could still be exchanged for a large amount of dollars.
That other people's things to make other people's money is undoubtedly the most refreshing business.
However, if you exchange the US dollar for the Thai baht to sell the Thai baht or the Thai stock market, it is undoubtedly a fool's suicide.
It is impossible for Zhao Jiangchuan to make such a mistake.
However, Jushi Capital does not have any industry in Thailand, and it is a bit unrealistic to borrow money from a bank.
All banks in the world are a virtue.
Help the rich not help the poor.
No one will lend you money without collateral.
However, it is not without solutions.
With Zhao Jiangchuan's financial knowledge, no one in this world can surpass him.
I want to avoid the loss of the exchange rate difference, and I want to rob the Thai people.
You only need to lock in the exchange rate difference.
U.S. Treasuries, undoubtedly very much in line with this.
Due to the good reputation of US Treasuries and their good liquidity, the value of US Treasuries is equal to the status of the US dollar in any financial market in the world.
Coupled with the fixed income of U.S. Treasury bonds, any bank in the world can borrow the equivalent of the face value of Treasury bonds.
What's more, Thailand at this time is the time when the financial industry is the most developed.
Due to the economic slowdown in European countries and the United States, interest rates on currencies have remained at around 4.0 percent.
But in Thailand, where the economy is overheating and inflationary pressures are being brought about, the one-year interest rate in Thailand is usually maintained at around 8 to 10 percent.
Banks are probably the most greedy institutions.
Under the statutory benchmark interest rate, the de facto interest rate is mostly around 12%.
The consequence of this spread is to attract a large amount of arbitrage money.
Even Thailand's state-owned banks often borrow currencies from overseas at lower interest rates to sell off in the market.
The exchanged baht is then used to lend money to earn interest margins.
In this case, Thailand's overall overseas borrowing quota is as high as US$1 trillion.
The fixed exchange rate has led to the emergence of arbitrage.
In Zhao Jiangchuan's eyes, this is simply a live target.
A live target that can be replenished with bullets indefinitely.
The wisdom of the Chinese people has never been to be underestimated.
Even in the capital game, when the Chinese people really play, Wall Street, which has a century-old financial history, is ashamed of itself.
For example, the later 10,000 sweet dreams, and then the later Wenzhou real estate speculation group.
Archimedes once said.
"Give me a lever and I can pry the earth"
Wenzhou real estate speculation group deeply harmonized the meaning of this sentence, and perfectly used him in the mode of capital operation.
In the words of Wenzhou people, an investment without leverage is not a good investment, and a speculator without leverage is not a good speculator.
As a result, a pry into the operation of real estate came into being.
CCTV reported on a Shenzhen speculator, "1 million becomes 50 million in two years", in this case, the secret of Mr. Li, a Shenzhen investor, to increase leverage is.
Buy first and then pledge, pledge and then loan, buy after loan, buy and pledge again.
And so on.
How do you play?
Li Xiansen invested in his first house with 1 million yuan and found that the house price rose very fast.
Then, he took the house in his parents' name to make a mortgage loan, and then, the indicators of his relatives were also borrowed to buy a house, which was repeated 17 times in 2015 and 4 times in 2016.
Dwarf oil, not bad~,
Through the continuous increase in mortgage loan rolling, in this round of real estate super bull market, the market value of the real estate in Li Xiansen's hands reached 50 million at its peak, which is really a lot of money, and it is impossible to count.
Is this amazing?
This can only be said to be the most elementary rookie level.
What's more, you can use this leverage indefinitely.
Theoretically, the investment of one property can buy a hundred or even more than a thousand properties.
They bet against the bears, with the banks, with the policies, and almost played leverage to the extreme of the universe.
Take a look at the ideas of these speculators.
You'll be amazed, routines, all routines.
This time, what Zhao Jiangchuan wants to do is to copy the routine of the Wenzhou real estate speculation group.
Even, it is simpler than the routine of the Wenzhou real estate speculation group.
Thailand's monetary system is based on a fixed exchange rate system.
Because the Thai government has seen the benefits of capital injection, it has become a highly liberal capital market country after years of policy adjustments.
The Thai government has great ambitions.
They want to build Thailand into a CBD business country in Southeast Asia with the opening of capital.
As a result, the Thai government itself does not impose restrictions on capital inflows and outflows.
In this case, if you pledge U.S. Treasury bonds to a bank, you can borrow the equivalent of Thai baht from Treasury bonds.
So if Zhao Jiangchuan buys a billion US dollars of treasury bonds, according to the ratio of 1:23 of the US dollar to Thai baht, how much baht can he borrow?
23 billion baht?
NO。
It's unlimited.
Theoretically, it could be a trillion.
。 m.