Chapter 45: The Collapse of Thailand's Stock Market (1)
Leverage is a common physical effect.
Theoretically, if you find a fulcrum and use the lever accurately, you can leverage countless times the power you actually have.
So some people will say, give me a lever and I can pry the earth.
But in fact, a theory is always a theory.
Just like the theory of evolution, everything is based on the subjective consideration of ideals.
True leverage is always a double-edged sword.
When the lever in your hand moves an immeasurable weight, you will only be stoned to death by the lever in your hand.
Buy U.S. Treasury bonds, pledge them to Thai commercial banks, buy government bonds, and pledge them for financing.
When Zhao Jiangchuan used leverage to enlarge a billion dollars to one hundred billion dollars.
He felt embarrassed.
It's so embarrassing that you have to think about whether to go to a place that is too luxurious even for dinner.
Poor, poor embarrassment.
The assets of 10 billion US dollars leveraged with US Treasury bonds are 230 billion baht.
According to the interest rate of one-year loans to major banks, Jushi Asset Management needs to pay more than 20 billion baht of interest to major commercial banks in Thailand every year.
On a monthly basis, you need to pay more than 200 million baht every month.
It's a terrible expense.
If you sit and wait like this, it may not be long before Zhao Jiangchuan will be played to death by himself.
In order to avoid accidentally beating yourself to death.
Zhao Jiangchuan had to stop the increase in leverage and shift his goal to making money and repaying loans.
The problem of leverage can only be solved by leverage.
If you want to earn 2.5 billion yuan in interest every month on 2.3 billion baht, the only way is to continue to increase leverage.
The SET index of the Thai stock market is undoubtedly a good target.
It is a composite index of the Thai stock market.
In order to curb speculation in the spot stock market, the Thai government opened financial futures trading on the SET index in 1992.
Twenty times leverage.
In other words, you only need to pay a margin of 5% of the SET index to trade one SET futures contract.
For Zhao Jiangchuan, a super hanger, it is almost equivalent to a tailor-made trading tool for him.
After confirming that the leverage of foreign exchange financing could not be increased, Jushi Asset Management opened all short contracts on the SET index with a full 2.3 billion baht.
And then....
The Bank of Thailand announced an increase in interest rates from four percent to six percent.
Normally, an increase in interest rates will inevitably harvest the liquidity of money.
After the interest rate on deposits rises, some funds will deposit money in the bank in order to pursue stable income.
Since the beginning of '96, the Thai stock market has been in a high consolidation shock.
It doesn't have much money-making effect.
Immediately after the rate hike, some funds were withdrawn from the stock market and transferred to banks.
In the mouths of economists or various securities analysts, the rise in stock prices mainly comes from policies and the fundamentals of companies.
But these experts would never say that the rise and fall of stock prices is always driven by money.
They will always emphasize where it is appropriate to buy and where to buy the bottom.
It will never be said that somewhere is the top, and it will never be said that the rise and fall of the stock price is that the fact is that it depends on the push of money.
When a large amount of money is withdrawn from the stock market, the water in the pool slides rapidly, and the stock price will inevitably fall.
Financiers all over the world are the same.
When the Bank of Thailand announced an interest rate hike, major Thai experts immediately jumped out.
Only when the economy is good will the central bank choose to raise interest rates.
The interest rate hike is to curb inflation and will not have much impact on the stock market.
Interest rate cuts are to boost the economy, but when interest rate cuts are needed to stimulate the economy, it means that the economy is weakening.
The fact that the interest rate hike can undoubtedly show that Thailand's economic development momentum is good.
In the long run, this is good for Thai listed companies and is of great significance to the healthy development of the stock market.
It's very logical and reasonable.
However, the market does not seem to be buying it.
When the news of the interest rate hike was announced, the Thai index SET fell in response.
But this does not prevent experts from continuing to tell the truth in front of the media, almost all of them agree that the pullback is only for a better rise.
As for why the stock price did not rise, no one answered positively.
For this phenomenon, some Thai stock market investors believe and some do not.
In the midst of the decline, those who believe choose to continue to buy the stock market.
Bull market pullbacks are opportunities.
Unfortunately, not everyone will believe it.
For example, Zhao Jiangchuan is a foreign capital.
Before the Bank of Thailand raised interest rates, Jushi Asset Management had already established a large short position on the SET.
As soon as the news of Thailand's interest rate hike was announced, SET responded to the announcement, and Jushi Asset Management immediately earned a large amount of baht.
Financial futures trading is a highly leveraged T+0 transaction.
After making a profit, Liu Qiang immediately strictly implemented Zhao Jiangchuan's instructions to attack the SET index.
Bangkok, Thailand.
In the trading department temporarily established by Jushi Asset Management.
Liu Qiang commanded the traders to carry out a crackdown operation.
In more than a period of time, Liu Qiang has made great progress in trading.
How to hedge transactions, how to buy high and sell low, has been very proficient.
With Zhao Jiangchuan's highest strategic direction, Liu Qiang executed the plan of short selling perfectly.
In the midst of large short selling and small buying, Thailand's SET index is like a waterfall.
Every price drop means that the bears have made a large profit.
That week, under the frenzied blow of the bears, Thailand's SET plummeted by nearly 25 percent.
After years of hard work, a week back to before liberation.
In just one week, Thailand's stock index has been bombarded from 1,450 to its highest point in 1990 at 1,100.
The drop of up to 35 points made Jushi Asset Management, which has been crazy full of positions, earn a full 6 billion baht.
Inside the Stock Exchange of Thailand.
Investors are mourning one by one, and the 25% decline has halved the prices of countless individual stocks.
Some have even fallen back to the price they were listed in 1988.
In the crazy decline of stock prices, the cost of investment for many people has been hated and slashed.
The feeling of being cut through the flesh of Thai investors is heart-wrenching.
But fortunately, when the stock price fell, there were still experts who stood up to cheer them on.
Down, it's a good time to cover the position.
The government will not let stock prices fall forever.
This made many investors who bought at a high level seem to see the dawn, and in the shrinking diet, they once again took out a small deposit to continue to replenish their positions.
Manhattan, USA.
After receiving the news from Jushi Asset Management, Zhao Jiangchuan collapsed on the bed like a deflated ball.
He sighed while panting and playing with Ouyang Lan's delicate body.
"Little money fans, those bankers are so greedy, I finally made some money, and they robbed me of almost half of it at once, and I can't live this day. ”
Ouyang Lan no longer had the strength to open her eyes.
She really wanted to lose a roll of her eyes to her boss.
As Zhao Jiangchuan's closest woman, how could Ouyang Lan not know Zhao Jiangchuan's overall strategic deployment.
This guy is clearly taking advantage of it and selling well.
But the weakness of her whole body as if she had been hit by a truck made Ouyang Lan continue to breathe.
Finally, Ouyang Lan, who was full of anger, regained some strength.
She subconsciously grabbed Xiao Zhao Jiangchuan and scolded.
"Boss, you're such a bad thing. ”
The capitalists are also helpless against their own secretaries' accusations.
He thinks that if he just uses other people's money to pay off other people's debts, how can it be a bad thing.
Zhao Jiangchuan mustered up his strength and pressed a thigh against Ouyang Lan's petite body without mercy.
He played with the pride of the pair who couldn't get enough of it, and laughed maliciously.
"You know now that I'm a bad thing, isn't it a little too late? ”
"Hmph... Now I'm alone, I'll bear with it, when we go back to Hong Kong, I have to ask Sister Xiaoyue to clean you up together. ”
"Haha...."
After the two of them gasped for a long time, Ouyang Lan said softly.
"Boss, can we go back to Hong Kong?"
。 m.