Chapter 211: Gap Up and Down
Weekends are always something to look forward to.
Whether you are an office worker or a student, you have been looking forward to the weekend since Monday.
Busy study and work can be rested on weekends.
Go out shopping, sing a song, or spend money with boyfriend and girlfriend to make an appointment.
It's just that the weekend is not even a minute for the participants of the futures market.
The capital game, Monday to Friday, is probably the most fascinating game in the world.
That nervous heartbeat, that thrill of making a quick profit, that feeling of being able to buy everything.
It's enough to be addicted.
Anyone who has watched a drug rehabilitation documentary should know that there is a professional name for addiction called withdrawal reaction.
It is about the various reactions that people who are addicted to drugs will have due to physical and psychological discomfort during the period of drug rehabilitation.
So for traders, every weekend comes to feel empty.
It was a kind of torture.
And for those who have a position in the futures market, this weekend is even more difficult than the past weekend.
At five o'clock on Friday evening, the Suzhou Stock Exchange issued an announcement.
For the delivery of red beans in the future, the adulteration of old beans and new beans will be prohibited.
This is a very ordinary message.
It's just a few words, so simple that it can be seen at a glance.
But such an ordinary piece of news exploded a thunderbolt in the hearts of many people.
The futures market is derived on a spot basis.
The revision of the delivery standard means that the amount of adzuki beans that can meet the delivery requirements is reduced.
At the same time, this also means that the registered warehouse receipts of spot traders may be invalidated.
Register a warehousing order.
When the spot dealer delivers the goods that meet the delivery standards to the delivery warehouse of the exchange, and after the delivery warehouse passes the inspection, a standard warehouse receipt will be issued to the holder of the goods, and the holder of the goods can take the standard warehouse receipt to the delivery department of the exchange for registration.
The warehouse receipt formed by completing this process is the registered warehouse receipt.
Theoretically, spot traders are a natural bear.
Because the spot in the hands of spot traders needs to be sold, but the market itself has disorderly fluctuations of systemic risks, in order to avoid the losses caused by such disorderly fluctuations, hedging can be used to hedge the risk of market instability.
Hedging.
In the spot market and futures market, the same type of commodity is bought and sold in equal quantities but in opposite directions at the same time.
That is, at the same time as buying or selling physical goods, selling or buying the same amount of futures in the futures market.
After a period of time, when the price change causes a profit or loss in spot trading, the loss in futures trading can be offset or compensated.
This creates a hedging mechanism between "current" and "future", between the near term and the forward, so that price risk is minimized.
The theoretical basis of hedging.
The cash and futures markets converge (under normal market conditions) because the two markets are subject to the same supply and demand.
Therefore, the prices of the two rise and fall at the same time.
However, since the two markets operate in opposite directions, the profit and loss are opposite, and the profits in the futures market can make up for the losses in the spot market, or the appreciation of the spot market is offset by the losses in the futures market.
For example, the spot dealer of red beans.
The spot price of red beans in November was 3,000 yuan per ton, and a spot dealer was satisfied with the price.
However, the sale of spot goods cannot be completed in a day.
The spot trader was worried that the spot price might fall and reduce the profit, so in order to avoid the risk of future price declines, the spot dealer decided to trade red bean futures on the Suzhou Commodity Exchange.
Take 30,000 tons of spot in the hands of spot dealers as an example.
The standard contract of red bean futures is a standardized contract of 10 tons, so the spot trader only needs to sell 3,000 short orders to lock the price of red beans in his hand at 3,000 yuan a ton.
If the price of the futures market rises in the future, then the spot in his hand will also rise, and if the futures price falls, then he can make a profit on the futures to make up for the loss of the spot.
But now, the exchange suddenly revised the trading standards, which means that all the registered warehouse receipts of spot traders who have been adulterated with new beans and old beans are invalid.
It's okay.
For spot traders, the futures market is a hedging risk.
They sell contracts in their hands to avoid the risk of falling prices.
Now the registered warehouse receipt is invalid, which means that the spot in the hands of the spot trader cannot be delivered.
If you want to make further delivery, you must take out enough spot before delivery.
Otherwise, the hedging position in the hands of spot traders will also become pure speculative trading.
After the news of the exchange was announced, all the spot traders were stunned.
In such a short time, where to go to receive enough spot.
That evening, spot traders involved in hedging blocked the door of the exchange.
They need a narrative.
The rules that have been set a long time ago, how can it be said that they can be changed.
The exchange finally gave an answer.
This decision was made after research by the exchange's research department.
But spot traders don't know that the exchange is actually very difficult.
Because, after the exchange closed in the afternoon, it received a phone call.
A call that they simply couldn't resist.
The outcome was already predestined.
Since the exchange announcement has been posted, it is naturally impossible to choose to change it.
Therefore, spot traders can only accept this fact.
The only thing they can save is to hedge their hedging positions after the market opens next week.
A short two-day weekend is as long as 10,000 years for a very good person.
No one knows what kind of trend the red beans will look like after the market opens next week.
Finally, two days passed.
But when the market opened on Monday, everyone was stunned.
The red bean 9602 contract opened at a price of 4161 yuan.
The gap was a full 272 points.
Open directly at the highest price of the up-limit board.
On the buy one handicap, hundreds of thousands of buy orders were piled up.
That's a number that would make any bears desperate.
With such a large order, no short position can be closed.
In other words, people who have made short orders now have no chance to admit the wrong stop loss.
The large account of the exchange is indoors.
Huang Binsen sat on the sofa with dull eyes.
The price of 4161 was like draining all the blood in his body.
The sudden explosion of losses on the books made his whole person collapse.
He knew he was finished.
A straight line of 180 degrees, there is no point in looking at the market.
Facing the already meaningless computer screen, Huang Bingsen almost thought he was dreaming.
A huge loss of more than 600 million.
This loss made Huang Binsen wonder if he was dreaming, or the kind of nightmare that he could never wake up from.
Suzhou is cold in winter.
It's just that Huang Bingsen's heart is even colder than the weather outside.
In the hundreds of thousands of buy orders that were blocked, Huang Binsen didn't feel any temperature.
Such a huge loss is beyond the limit of what he can bear.
Facing the red bean that sealed the price limit, he couldn't even escape.
Deep self-blame and regret made Huang Bingsen feel as if he was tightly strangled by a pair of big hands.
His eyes were blank, and he looked ahead as if he was dead.
In another large room, the floor was littered with smashed computer shards.
Yuan Baocheng was furious, holding a stool and frantically destroying everything in the room.
One by one, the traders hid in the corners, bowing their heads and not daring to speak.
This time, Yuan Baocheng was miserable.
In less than a month, seven or eight billion yuan was lost.
Such a loss is enough to make Yuan Baocheng hurt his muscles and bones.
What made Yuan Baocheng even more annoyed was that he was still tricked by friendly forces this time.
In Yuan Baocheng's opinion.
Nine times out of ten, Hu Hansan and the Huang family are deliberately yin against him.
On Friday, no one could smash such a big empty order except these two.
Even the sudden change in the rules of the exchange is a good thing for these two companies nine times out of ten.
"Hu Hansan, Huang Bingsen, you wait for me!"
Hu Hansan, the biggest main force in this bear.
Such as mourning.
He didn't let the trader close the position anymore.
At such a time, there is no point in closing the position again.
The limit means that no one's short position can be flattened.
What's the use of getting in line and getting rid of that hand.
With a loss of up to one billion, it is impossible to save anything.
The main force of the bears on the red beans is like a dead mother, not to mention those retail investors who have made shorts.
In this kind of price limit that can't even escape for their lives, everyone is like a drowning person who is about to be drowned.
Those who went short on Friday's limit have already made huge losses.
As for those who were short early, there were even shorts.
Liquidation, not liquidation.
To put it simply, those who were empty two days earlier, in addition to losing their principal, are now in debt.
And how much this debt will be owed, no one knows.
In the super violent market, the exchange is much quieter than usual.
A market that makes the bears completely desperate, and those who have short positions are no longer in the mood to speak.
Only those speculators who have done a lot are in high spirits.
"Haha, look at these stupid bears, I told them, don't short this kind of market, it's closed now. ”
"Lao Sun, didn't you say that if it rises too much, it will fall, the hat you grabbed on Friday is not cool now. ”
"Get out of your paralysis, don't bother me, I'm annoying. ”
"Hey, don't mind, I'll invite you to Baihuayuan to taste the taste of the top brand in the evening, I tried it last night, it's tender, tsk..."
"Fuck off. ”
"Hey, fuck, I didn't dare to run away on the other weekend, I ran away last Friday, or I'd have doubled my money now. ”
"You have it, Lao Tzu was washed out by the lowest point, if you have money, be content. ”
"Damn, Lao Tzu obviously sees a lot, but he doesn't make any money. ”
"Isn't it, such a good market, how often can you encounter it, but I didn't make any money. ”
"If you have money to earn, be content, fortunately, Lao Tzu ran fast on Friday, otherwise I would have to jump off the building now." ”
"Yes, if you can block the limit today, these shorts will be miserable. ”
“……”
。 m.