Chapter Seventy-Two: An Opportunity to Make a Global Reputation

The day before, Prime Minister Chawari said in the media.

Thailand has tens of billions of dollars in foreign exchange reserves, Thai exports remain strong, and there is absolutely no basis for the Thai baht to depreciate.

In the eyes of foreign capital, all this is a threat and intimidation of foreign powers and cadres.

In the past half month, domestic capital has tested a number of exploratory attacks in the Thai baht forward and spot markets.

Although they are all about to retreat, international capital has tested the bottom line of the Bank of Thailand.

As soon as the forward market baht hits 25 against the dollar, the Bank of Thailand will intervene.

This intervention is to take over all the sell-offs in the forward and spot markets.

About four percent of the amplitude.

This means that the bottom line for the Bank of Thailand is between 24 and 25.

The purpose is to maintain the selling pressure in the spot market.

It was only after the international capital took turns to test that Prime Minister Chawalit made a speech.

A guilty person gives himself away by conspicuously protesting his innocence.

Everyone understands this.

Chawalit's speech made international capital more convinced that the Bank of Thailand's foreign exchange reserves are insufficient.

In the eyes of Robinson and other international capitals, there is only one way for the current Bank of Thailand to go.

We will take the initiative to liberalize the fixed exchange rate of the Thai baht and implement a floating exchange rate with market liberalization.

At that point, he will be able to make huge returns on the short positions he had previously opened.

However, the collapse of the Thai stock market and the thinness of the property market made Robinson realize that the Bank of Thailand is ready to stick to the fixed exchange rate of the Thai baht.

This is the apex predator's keen sense of smell.

The average Thai investor is completely unaware of the dismal situation in the country's stock market and real estate.

In Robinson's eyes, Thai investors have become leeks for the country.

The stock market is evaporating a lot of baht every day.

The fall in real estate prices has also locked some capital into real estate.

When these funds do not flow out, it can suspend the depreciation pressure faced by the baht.

The actions of the Bank of Thailand are not secrets in the eyes of people like Robinson.

After thinking about it for a long time.

Robinson gently stroked his bald head.

A grim smile appeared on his face.

He felt that it was time for this hunting feast to begin.

21 November 1996.

The Global Financial Times ran a news item.

The title is:

The crisis in Thailand.

This was the front-page headline of the Global Financial Times that day.

The content is:

"To explain it with a set of data: between 1994 and 1996, Thailand's exports increased from $45.1 billion to $55.7 billion, and imports increased from $54.4 billion to $73.4 billion.

The growth rate of imports is much higher than that of exports.

In other words, Thailand's foreign trade deficit jumped rapidly from $9.3 billion to $17.7 billion.

In 1996, Thailand's balance of payments deficit was 10.2 per cent of GDP, well above the international warning threshold of 5 per cent.

……”

A very professional analysis points out the current predicament facing Thailand.

Under all kinds of reasonable data, people can't believe it.

Quantum Fund Headquarters.

Soros stood in front of the world map and pondered.

He knew that his theory of "big ups and downs" had chosen to fall on Southeast Asia, which had created the 'world economic miracle' in recent years.

The Bank of Thailand has chosen to maintain a fixed exchange rate system, and it has no choice but to target Thailand.

However, it's not that simple.

As one of the world's top financiers, Soros is well aware of the financial crisis that can be triggered by the collapse of a country's currency.

In the financial crisis, people's lives will not be guaranteed, and many people may not even be able to eat bread.

It's not the same as attacking European countries.

In European countries, people have better welfare benefits, and the gap between wealth and per capita income is not so large.

Even if those countries suffer losses, it will not really affect people's lives.

It can be different in Southeast Asia.

In Southeast Asia, wealth is in the hands of the elite.

Real civilians have little wealth in their own right.

Once a crisis erupts, those people will suffer greatly for the country.

Even, it may cause war.

In 1929-1933, the global economic crisis wreaked havoc on the capitalist countries.

The unemployment rate has risen sharply, and social contradictions have expanded.

In order to divert domestic contradictions, governments launched a series of foreign wars, which led to the outbreak of World War II.

It can be said that the economic crisis of 1929-1933 was the trigger for World War II.

With the height of Soros, he has an unimaginable understanding of politics and economics.

So in the face of Southeast Asia, Soros has a rare dilemma.

He hated war.

It was precisely because of World War II that his homeland was destroyed.

But the target has been chosen, and it is difficult for Soros to convince himself to retreat.

As the top head of a hedge fund, his profession is to help clients and themselves build positions to make enough profits.

After thinking about it for a long time, Soros picked up the special line and wanted to talk to Druckenmiller.

"Suzu...... Bell"

In the middle of the night, Stanley Druckenmiller was woken up.

He knew that only Soros in this world would call him at this time.

It's just that this kind of thing hasn't happened since 1992, so what is the big deal this time?

Druckenmiller held up the phone gently.

Soros only said one sentence: "Stanley, let's study Southeast Asia together tomorrow." ”

However, it was this sentence that kept Stanley Druckenmiller awake that night.

Truth be told, sometimes Stanley can't help but admire Soros's unconventional instinct for the market. Although judging from the years he took over the Quantum Fund, the annual growth rate has exceeded the growth rate when Soros himself was in charge of the fund.

Stanley, however, often pursued Soros's philosophy of investment and speculation deep down.

The Quantum Fund has not been involved in Southeast Asia, but Stanley Druckenmiller has his concerns.

Because there, he had bad luck.

Speaking of which, it was in late 1995.

At that time, Stanley quietly built a position equivalent to hundreds of millions of dollars in Thai baht, and then sold a large number of baht in the market.

However, as a result, Druckenmiller did not succeed at the end of '95.

Since the aftermath of the Mexican financial crisis of late '94 and '95 has not yet subsided, Thailand has also stepped up its vigilance, so the Bank of Thailand has been prepared for a long time.

At the beginning of Stanley's move, he suddenly raised the interest rate and won the support of several other ASEAN countries.

In the course of 8 days in November '95, Stanley Druckenmiller finally returned to nothing, and the Quantum Fund lost nearly $70 million in the attack on the Thai baht.

Druckenmiller has been haunted by this matter.

This time, the boss is ready to "pay attention" to Southeast Asia, which is also in the hands of Druckenmiller.

Druckenmiller is well aware that this time, I am afraid that he and Soros's quantum fund will become famous all over the world again.