When a hanger can't explain that he is a hanger, the best explanation is naturally pretending.

Zhao Jiangchuan is pretending to be forced, pretending to be profound.

For him, making an afterthought explanation is not a piece of cake.

So, George King was confused.

George King was British, British.

He could understand every word Zhao Jiangchuan said.

But when those words form an idiom, George King is only confused.

It's awkward.

Fortunately, there is also Zhang Xiaolei next to her.

The extremes of things must be reversed, and the extremes of prosperity must decline.

The meaning of these two idioms can be understood by Chinese people as soon as they hear it.

Zhang Xiaolei thought a lot.

Since ancient times, there has been no dynasty that lasts for thousands of years.

It's as if there's some kind of pattern.

No matter how powerful a dynasty is, it can't avoid the day it ends.

Far from it.

In modern times, it is as strong as the Soviet Union, and it is not that it has suddenly fallen apart.

The same is true of the law of the business cycle.

Even the United States, the world's largest economy, has a high unemployment rate in the past few years, and many real estate companies in the United States are facing bankruptcy due to the recession of the American economy.

Well-known ones such as the Trump Group almost went bankrupt in the collapse of housing prices.

Since 1980, real estate prices in Thailand have been growing slowly.

If you compare the previous highest price with the house price in 1980, it is a full 40-fold increase.

That's a terrifying increase.

Such a terrifying increase seems to be very consistent with the sign that things must turn.

Zhang Xiaolei's thoughtfulness helped Zhao Jiangchuan cover up the embarrassing situation of pretending to fail.

George King is more miserable.

He could see that Zhang Xiaolei seemed to understand something.

But he still didn't understand anything.

In addition to being confused, he didn't understand what Zhao Jiangchuan was talking about at all.

Am I not even as good as a recent graduate, or do Chinese people have a talent for understanding the economy?

George King was a little skeptical.

After thinking about it to no avail, he could only speak again.

"Zhao, if I'm stupid, can you make it a little clearer. ”

George King's tone was more respectful than ever.

For him, being hit again and again in the professional field made him see his lack of ability.

He desperately wants to know what went wrong, more like making up for his own shortcomings.

At this time, George King did not have the arrogance of the aristocracy, nor the treachery and cunning of the bankers.

He was like the best student, asking Zhao Jiangchuan for the knowledge he craved the most.

Zhang Xiaolei and George King's reactions made Zhao Jiangchuan almost stop laughing.

How do you fool a person if you want to fool him?

The best thing to do is to let the person who was fooled think for himself.

The more you think about it, the deeper you fall into it.

Zhao Jiangchuan knows this.

Just like on the stock market.

Many people can't help but think about what kind of impact the news will have on the market based on the news that appears in the market.

After the Chinese New Year, the sales volume of the mall has increased significantly, and the stock of the mall will definitely rise sharply.

If the price of oil goes down, the cost of airlines will go down, and then the airline stock will go up.

Similar phenomena abound throughout the course of humanity.

When a person's mind enters the right direction for what they think they are, they will always help themselves find countless reasons to convince themselves.

George Jin Yuluo, Zhao Jiangchuan asked with a forced smile.

"George, what is the source of Thailand's economic growth?"

Thailand, including most countries in Southeast Asia, has seen its economy take off because of its low labor and cheap raw materials.

Against this background, a large amount of foreign capital began to enter these countries.

Among them, the largest amount of capital inflow was made by the Nippon Foundation.

Japan is a developed country.

This means that both labor and material value in Japan are extremely expensive.

In order to save costs, a large number of Japanese companies have relocated to these Southeast Asian countries.

On this basis, it has promoted the rapid economic leap of Thailand for more than ten years.

George King graduated with a bachelor's degree in economics and has studied the financial industry for many years.

He naturally knew all this.

However, he still can't understand that Zhao Jiangchuan will see through the logic of the real estate collapse in Thailand.

George King wondered.

"Thailand's economic growth is mainly due to foreign capital injection, but what does this have to do with the collapse of Thailand's real estate industry?

With a large amount of capital injection, Thailand's economy has been fully developed, and per capita income has increased, and Thai real estate should continue to rise.

It's clearly an upward trend. ”

"George, you're right, but is there a trend in this world that will never change?"

This time, George King understood.

Although this sentence is not much different from the meaning of the extreme.

Under Zhao Jiangchuan's explanation, George King frowned.

"I understand what you mean, but according to the trend of Thailand's real estate industry at that time, there was no sign of a downward reversal at all, how did you expect it to suddenly collapse?"

I'm a squeeze, of course I know.

Zhao Jiangchuan wondered how George King would react to what he said.

But unfortunately, no one can tell this kind of thing.

In order to satisfy George King's thirst for knowledge, in order to pay a very valuable coolie, Zhao Jiangchuan had to use what he had at his disposal to continue to fool.

"George, don't you understand? It's not that I'm predicting that the real estate industry in Thailand will collapse, it's that the Thai government wants him to collapse. ”

"Hum..."

George King's brain exploded.

He seemed to understand a little bit what Zhao Jiangchuan meant.

Zhao Jiangchuan didn't stop, and in the stunned eyes of George King, he continued to talk eloquently.

"George, haven't you noticed that in recent years, Thailand's economic development has been overheated, and in order to cool down, the Bank of Thailand has raised the lending rate to more than eight percent.

In terms of benchmark interest rates, the external interest rates of major commercial banks have reached 12 percent.

The purpose, as I think you understand, is to curb the excessive speculation of capital, hoping to limit the inflow of capital into the stock market and real estate with high costs.

But the Bank of Thailand overlooks the fact that when interest rate differentials widen, it attracts a lot of arbitrage money.

Those funds borrowed capital from overseas to lend to Thailand for profit.

It will fundamentally exacerbate the total circulating value of the baht.

I guess you can see why I'm bearish on real estate in Thailand. ”

George King, of course, got it.

If he didn't know it now, Zhao Jiangchuan would not have promoted him to the global CEO of Standard Chartered, let alone waste his tongue talking so much nonsense.

The problem is in the currency.

The expansion of the total circulating value of the Thai baht means that the Thai baht is overissued.

On the gold standard, money was issued in accordance with gold reserves.

However, under the credit standard, the issuance of currency is entirely based on a combination of factors such as a country's economy, politics, science and technology, and foreign exchange reserves.

Thailand's comprehensive level is not enough to support the current total circulation of baht.

When Thailand's ability to earn foreign exchange through exports cannot keep up with the issuance of the baht, the contradiction will be infinitely magnified.

Thailand operates a fixed exchange rate system.

When capital flows out of Thailand, the Bank of Thailand is under tremendous pressure.

And the pressure will get bigger and bigger.

The circulation of Thai baht is expanding.

According to the relationship between supply and demand, when the issuance of the baht expands, the baht should depreciate.

However, the fixed exchange rate has locked in the possibility of the depreciation of the baht.

This will lead to the Bank of Thailand's foreign exchange reserves exceeding its means.

To solve this problem.

The only way to do this is to shrink the amount of money to be put in the market.