Chapter Ninety-Five: A Pit Like a Sinkhole
Losses are unavoidable in the market.
No one can guarantee that their investment will be in the right direction.
J.P. Morgan can't, Lee Vermore can't, Robinson can't, Soros can't.
Of course, neither can Stanley Druckenmiller.
According to the comprehensive analysis of the previous quantum fund team, the Thai baht should not be able to withstand the depreciation.
But in fact, instead of depreciating as the analysis, the Thai baht has shrunk the room for decline.
One is the team's long-term tracking and analysis, and the other is the results given by the market.
Two very different directions.
It is these two very different directions that make Druckenmiller very entangled.
The market has two directions.
It's either up or down.
Very simple.
But this is simple, just like the yin and yang poles.
It seems simple, but it is so complex that people can't see it clearly.
It's so simple that you can't even know if you're right or wrong.
The combined judgment was in telling Drucken Miller that his analysis was correct.
But the market was telling him that he was wrong.
If correct, the Quantum Fund's position should not be in the red.
Druckenmiller's brow furrowed deeply.
He rubbed his eyebrows with his hands, constantly deducing every link of the strategy in his heart.
The attack on the Thai baht is because the Thai baht is the weakest link in Southeast Asia's monetary system.
Thailand's financial markets are very free.
The almost unlimited flow of money is also a completely undefended city when it attracts a strong flow of capital.
In a way, Thailand is mimicking the trajectory of the U.S. economy.
There's nothing wrong with that.
A large part of the U.S. economic position in the world is driven by its highly prosperous financial sector.
A hundred years ago, the United States had a mediocre position in the world.
However, with the rapid development of the financial industry, the economic strength of the United States has made a qualitative leap.
The financial industry is like the most gorgeous magic trick in the world.
Relying on the most advanced financial means, the United States defeated the Soviet Union, which was unrivaled militarily.
The ruble collapsed on all fronts, and the USSR collapsed.
The United States became a global hegemon.
The most important feature of the U.S. financial market is its high degree of freedom.
Capital of any country can flow freely in the U.S. financial market.
What it has brought is a flock of global capital to the United States.
Thailand sees this very accurately.
After Thailand fully liberalized its financial market, global capital also flowed into Thailand rapidly, promoting Thailand's economic development.
Thailand has risen to become the leader of the Asian miracle.
However, Thailand has ignored its own strength while following the example of the United States in developing a highly liberalized financial market.
It's like a small wooden barrel, but it wants to hold the water of a big river.
That's going to blow up.
This is the logic of Druckenmiller's bearish view of the baht.
When the river bursts, the water in the barrels has to be swept away.
With Thailand's strength, it is simply impossible to block the river embankment like the United States.
ASEAN's political landscape, the expansion of the Thai baht's circulation, the bad debt ratio of banks after the collapse of Thailand's real estate industry, and the strength of the U.S. economy to draw blood from emerging market countries......
Druckenmiller frowned and went back to everything.
Druckenmiller already knew these things.
But no matter how he reviewed it, he still couldn't find the logic that the baht could still stick to.
The next to sell the baht was BOT, and it was Jushi Capital that opened the flexible range of the baht......
Boulder Capital?
Druckenmiller was stunned.
He found that the previous analysis of the Quantum Fund seemed to have overlooked something.
In the early strategic plans for the Thai Baht, the existence of Megalith Capital was not taken into account at all.
At that time, they agreed that there would be no funds to take over the baht except for the BOT.
However, now, after breaking the elastic range of the baht, Jushi Capital has slashed into the shorts that followed it with a backhand.
Damn the megalith capital.
Druckenmiller finally knew why he had been so upset.
Boulder Capital collapsed inexplicably out of his plan.
If it's a small bankroll in general, it's simply not enough to make a difference in a matchup at this level.
Boulder Capital is different.
The acquisition of Standard Chartered means that more than one billion US dollars can be withdrawn from Standard Chartered Jushi Capital alone.
It's not terrible.
What's really scary is that no one knows how thick the strength of Jushi Capital is.
The unknown is always scary.
Not being able to see the true face of the enemy will always make people subconsciously nervous.
Druckenmiller's pupils constricted when he discovered the blind spot in his plan.
One thing Druckenmiller was sure of.
Jushi Capital dares to participate in this level of competition, and dares to kill opponents and slash teammates in the long and short camp.
The strength is certainly not ordinary.
And people who can control such a large amount of money are never fools.
Compare your heart with your heart and treat others with yourself.
Druckenmiller began to replace himself in the position of Boulder Capital.
And then......
He was shocked into a cold sweat.
"Robbie, Robbie, clear our positions immediately, ...... quickly"
After Druckenmiller figured out something, he immediately picked up the phone and called his assistant.
His strong instincts told him that something was going to happen.
That's Drucken's innate instinct, or an instinct he's honed over the course of a long battle in the market.
This instinct, which has no scientific basis, has been repeated countless times in Druckenmiller's career.
But never once has it been so intense.
His instincts were telling him that there was a pit ahead.
A huge pit like a sinkhole.
But sadly, Druckenmiller's reaction was still slow.
Bangkok, Thailand.
A Thai man in a police uniform walked into the Standard Chartered Bangkok branch with a dozen police officers.
Soon, Li Yunsheng, the head of Standard Chartered in Bangkok, walked out quickly.
There is no excessive politeness.
After a brief negotiation, the Bangkok police showed their intentions.
Therefore, Li Yunsheng was very embarrassed.
The Bangkok police can't give away things easily.
Li Yunsheng frowned.
"Superintendent Nitiva, customer information is the top secret of our bank, and I think it will be difficult for me to fulfill your request. ”
"Mr. Li, I think you are also aware of the current situation in Thailand, so I hope you can cooperate with our work, that is, a few customer information of forward foreign exchange contracts, I don't think it will cause any loss to your bank. ”
"I'm sorry, I really can't give you this, it's about the reputation of our bank. I'm really sorry. ”
"Mr. Li, I admire your professional ethics, but my refusal makes it difficult for me. ”
Li Yunsheng spent five years in Thailand.
In the past five years, he has been well aware of the temperament of these Thai military police.
When Nitiva looked embarrassed, he gave Nitiva a look.
Then, the two walked quietly to a corner where no one was around.
Li Yunsheng took out his wallet, took out more than a dozen dollars worth 100 dollars from his wallet and handed them to Nitiwa.
"It's hard to bring the brothers out on a mission, you're welcome, just let me invite everyone to tea. ”
Nitiva didn't look surprised, he showed a mouth of yellow teeth and unceremoniously took the dozen dollars.
Then, after the two pretended to call each other brothers and sisters for a few words, they talked about the topic.
"Li, I can't help you this time, the above has already issued a death order, so that we must get the information of those customers who hold forward foreign exchange contracts in your hands. Otherwise, I won't be able to go back. ”
"Is it all?"
"It's up to you. ”
“......”
Li Yunsheng was silent for a moment, then took out his wallet again and took out all the dollars in it.
He handed the money to Nitiva and spoke.
"Wait for me for a few minutes. ”
"Okay, I'll wait for you in the lobby downstairs. ”
A few minutes later, Li Yunsheng took a printed piece of A4 paper and handed it to Nitiwa.
When the two looked at each other, they smiled together.
"Wrap up. ”
Nitiva is gone.
Li Yunsheng did not delay and immediately trotted back to the office.
After locking the door, he picked up the encrypted satellite phone in the safe and dialed a number.
Soon, the call was answered.
“... Yes, just now the Bangkok police brought someone over and took away the customer information on the forward foreign exchange. Well, I understand...... Yes, got it. ”