Zhao Hong spent nearly a month of spare time to study the history of the capitalist economy that he could find, and there were only a few books, and through reading through and repeatedly, he slowly summarized some discoveries, and then thought about determining the general direction.

No matter how detailed it is, you need to continue to learn. In fact, looking at the economic development process of our neighbor RB, there are also many gains.

"For almost 20 years, from 1955 to 1973, the average annual growth rate of the RB remained above 10 percent, although the growth rate varied from year to year. Like which stage in the country?

In 1973, the "endpoint" year of the period of rapid economic growth, RB's real GNP reached 11 times that of 1946, reaching the pre-war level of 77 B, and the per capita GNP of 1934-1936 increased from less than 110 in the United States in the 50s to 60 percent in the United States. Such a rate of growth is unprecedented in the history of RB and rare in the history of the world. Like the situation in which year in the country?

If economic growth in the period of economic revival was led by "external demand" for exports, especially the "special needs" of the Korean War, then economic growth during the period of rapid growth was led by investment, that is, the capital investment of rapidly growing private enterprises became the main driving force for rapid economic growth. For example, in 1969, the ratio of private investment in fixed assets to GDP was as high as 273 percent, and the investment rate, including government investment, was as high as 353 percent. Like the domestic stage?

At that time, RB used the United States as a model in both production and consumption, and the technology needed for this purpose did not need to be developed from scratch, as long as advanced technology was introduced, and through imitation, digestion and improvement, it could be quickly industrialized and commercialized. The race to introduce technology has led to a rapid increase in capital investment, and there has been a boom in the so-called "investment calling for investment". Through the boom in equipment investment, a large number of new technologies and new products developed by developed countries during the war flowed into the RB, so that the original industrial equipment was renewed in one fell swoop, and a large number of new industries such as steel, synthetic fibers, petrochemicals, and electronics industries emerged. From the perspective of industrial structure, the process of rapid economic growth is also the process of heavy industrialization and chemical industrialization after the war. Like the government report of that year?

The 1960 National Income Doubling Plan, proposed by the Ikeda Cabinet, became a symbol of the rapid growth of the RB economy, encouraging a wide range of private companies, and its low interest rate policy stimulated the growth of private investment. Rapidly growing investment has led to the development of increasingly advanced and large-scale production equipment: in the steel industry, the maximum blast furnace capacity has expanded from less than 1,000 cubic meters in 1953 to more than 3,000 cubic meters in 1964 and more than 4,600 cubic meters in 1973, so that in the 70s RB accounted for four of the world's five largest blast furnaces, and the most advanced steelmaking technologies such as oxygen top blowing converters were rapidly introduced, and in the petrochemical industry, the size of the largest ethylene plant was expanded from 20,000 tons per year in 1958 to 1966 With an annual output of 200,000 tons and 300,000 tons in 1973, a petrochemical production system dominated by large conglomerates was built; in the power industry, the maximum thermal power generation capacity was expanded from 1.75 million kilowatts in the second half of the 50s to 600,000 kilowatts in 1967, and then upgraded to 1 million kilowatts. What year?

Mutually reinforcing with "mass production" is "mass consumption", especially "household appliance fever" has become a major feature of national consumption in the era of rapid growth. In the 50s, black-and-white televisions, washing machines, and refrigerators, known as the "three artifacts", became popular, and the rapid popularity of black-and-white televisions was in the second half of the 50s, when the price per unit was equivalent to a month's salary. In the 60s, color TVs, air conditioners, and cars became the new center of national consumption demand because the first letter of the English word for these three major items was "C". Among them, the penetration rate of cars increased from 17 per 1,000 population in 1955 to 220 in 1965 and 1,336 in 1973. What year?

As a result of the increase in productivity through the introduction of technology and innovation, and the low fixed exchange rate of the yen against the U.S. dollar set in 1949 at a low rate of 360 yen for 1 U.S. dollar, the international competitiveness of the RB export industry increased rapidly, and exports increased at twice the rate of GNP growth rate, and as a result, in the second half of the 60s, a black-letter situation began to form in the trade balance, with exports outpacing imports.

With the growth of economic strength, RB joined the OECD in 1964 and entered the ranks of developed countries. In US dollar terms, RB's GDP surpassed that of Britain and France in 1967 and West Germany in 1968, and B's per capita national income rose from $378 in 1960 to $1,515 in 1970, approaching the level of Western Europe, ranking 20th in the world.

The 1969 Economic White Paper described the economic strength of the RB at the time as "2nd and 20th", and concluded that the "imbalance" between the second and 20th GNP per capita was the low productivity of agriculture, services, and small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises. However, in the context of rapid economic growth, the demand for labor, mainly young labor, has been expanding, leading to a shortage of labor, resulting in a rapid increase in wages in low-productivity sectors, and an increase in the cost of production factors such as labor, which in turn has accelerated the rise in consumer prices.

In general, the "energy" of the people of the RB has been brought into play as a result of the rapid growth, and the people have been able to get rid of the poverty of material life through their own efforts, and they have basically achieved full employment, and they have also made achievements in eliminating the "dual structure" of the economy, such as the gap between large enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises, and the vast number of enterprises have strengthened their international competitiveness through technological innovation. At the same time, however, it has also led to the rise in prices, the backwardness of the living environment, and the aggravation of public pollution.

In the early 70s, the high growth of the RB economy came to an end, and the process of deceleration actually began. In FY1970, the real growth rate was 76%, but in FY71 the growth rate fell to 50% due to the impact of the "appreciation of the yen," and in FY1972 the growth rate rose again to 92%. However, the oil crisis in 1973 led to a decline in real growth to 04 per cent in 1974, the first negative growth rate in the post-war period. It can be said that it was the oil crisis that had a decisive impact on the turning point of RB's economic growth and put an end to the rapid growth of the RB economy after the war.

4. Stable growth period from 1973 to 1986

In 1970, the dollar-centered international monetary system was greatly shaken by the massive outflow of dollars due to the deterioration of the U.S. balance of payments. In August 1971, the United States announced the decoupling of the dollar from gold and imposed a 10% tariff on imports, which was the so-called "Nixon shock". At the end of 1971, the finance ministers of the ten countries held a meeting in the HSD and adjusted the currencies of various countries, among which the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar was adjusted from 360 yen per US dollar to 308 yen per US dollar, but the market was still unstable, and in February 1973, it was changed to a floating exchange rate system, that is, the exchange rate of currencies of various countries was no longer fixed, but was determined by the market mechanism.

In October 1973, the Fourth Middle East War broke out, and the oil-exporting countries raised oil prices from about $2-3 per barrel to $4, $8, and $12, thus triggering the so-called "oil crisis." The sharp rise in oil prices has had a great impact on the economies of oil-consuming countries, causing problems such as inflation and deterioration of the current balance.

Under the influence of the oil crisis, domestic speculation in RB was rife, prices skyrocketed, and even housewives rushed to buy toilet paper. To this end, the government adopted a strong monetary austerity policy, and although the price rise was contained, it led to a stagnation in equipment investment, a marked deceleration in economic growth, a decrease in employment, and an increase in unemployment.

The RB government lifted the financial austerity in the spring of 1975 and adopted fiscal stimulus policies at the end of 1977, while at the same time promoting the upgrading of the industrial structure, promoting the transformation of the labor- and capital-intensive industrial structure into a technology- and knowledge-intensive industrial structure. As exports continued to expand, compensating for the decline in domestic demand, the economy began to pick up steadily, while prices remained stable, unemployment tended to fall, and the rate of economic growth did not swing up and down much.

In order to overcome the oil crisis, private companies have made great efforts to rationalize production and management. Relying on the principle of the market, on the one hand, they vigorously conserve resources and energy, and implement "reduction management" to save various costs, and on the other hand, they have achieved high added value of products, especially export products, through technological innovation. By promoting the rationalization of production and operation, the quality and efficiency of enterprises have been significantly improved.

In the aftermath of the Nixon shock and the oil crisis, it was expected that the RB economy would not be able to withstand the double whammy: fearing that the appreciation of the yen would lead to a decline in the international competitiveness of private companies after entering a floating exchange rate system, fearing that rising oil prices would lead to an overall rise in prices, leading to a deterioration in the current balance, and in short, fearing that the RB would enter an era of "zero growth" economic depression.

However, in the second half of the '70s, it became apparent that the RB economy, which had been hit hardest in the West, had recovered the fastest despite rising oil prices, and that private companies had been able to regain their vitality despite the fluctuating exchange rate. Due to the elevation of the industrial structure and the enhancement of the quality of enterprises, the entire RB economy has strengthened its resistance to external shocks. Thus, despite the second oil crisis in 1978-1979, when oil prices skyrocketed from $13 per barrel in mid-1978 to $40 per barrel in 1980-1981, and the world economic crisis in 1981-1983, the RB economy was minimally affected. In short, the RB economy has embarked on a path of steady growth, and its economic performance is truly superior among developed countries.

As the economic and technological level of RB is catching up with that of Europe and the United States, the RB government increasingly feels that it is necessary to strengthen its own technological research and development, and "move from the era of imitation of foreign technology to the era of originality." To this end, in 1980, the government formally formulated the policy of "building a nation through technology" and formulated important research and development plans such as the Agency for Science and Technology to promote the creation of a system for promoting science and technology, and the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) for a system for the research and development of next-generation industrial basic technologies.

However, RB's good economic performance and rapid technological progress relative to other Western countries have brought about significant changes in RB's foreign economic relations. Due to the enhancement of international competitiveness, RB's industrial exports continued to expand, and the current balance deficit from 1974 to 1975 turned black in 1976, and then the surplus widened rapidly. In particular, between Japan and the United States, the trade imbalance between Japan and the United States has been increasingly aggravated by the high exchange rate policy implemented by the United States since 1982, and the trade frictions between Japan and the United States have continued one after another and become increasingly intensified. After the 1985 meeting of the five finance ministers, the yen appreciated dramatically, from 230 yen per dollar to 121 yen per dollar in a little more than three years from September 1985 to November 1988.

5. The Expansion and Bursting of the Bubble Economy1986—

The collapse of the New York stock market on "Black Monday" in October 1987 accelerated the appreciation of the yen, reaching 122 yen per dollar in 1988. In February 1987, in order to prevent further appreciation of the yen, RB Bank adjusted the rediscount rate to an unprecedentedly low level of 25%. As a result, a large amount of capital flowed to the land and stock markets, causing land prices and stock prices to rise, and under the psychological effect of speculating that the prices of land and stocks would continue to rise, people rushed to buy them in order to obtain value-added benefits, and as a result, the prices of land and stocks were speculated higher and higher, greatly detached from the real value, and on December 29, 1989, the Nikkei Stock Average RB was the most commonly used stock price index, which was based on the representative 225 listed on the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange The average price of the stock is calculated to reach a record 3891587 yen. What year?

The sharp rise in the price of assets such as land prices and stock prices has led to the "asset effect" of the industry: First, it has stimulated the expansion of consumption, because the assets in the hands of people who own land and stocks have increased significantly, so that they feel that they are suddenly "broad", so they spend a lot of money, and high-priced commodities such as precious metals, precious stones, paintings, and brand-name cars have become sought-after goods; Third, against the backdrop of a booming stock market, enterprises are actively carrying out fund-raising activities accompanied by stock issuance for equipment investment and the construction of welfare facilities for employees.

In May 1989, in order to prevent prices from rising, the rediscount rate was raised to 325% in order to prevent prices from rising, and the stock price continued to rise for a period of time, and finally rose to a peak in December 1989. After the stock price first began to fall, the rate of increase in land prices also peaked in mid-1990 and then slowed down until 1992.

The decline in land prices and stock prices led to the deflation of assets, and at the same time, the decline in the rate of wage growth, and the purchase of too many durable consumer goods during the expansion of the bubble economy caused "excess inventory" in the household income, and the people's consumption consciousness turned from hot to cold, and personal consumption tended to be sluggish, which led to an increase in commodity inventories and forced enterprises to reduce production. On the other hand, companies have been forced to suppress lending due to rising interest rates and the problem of excess equipment caused by over-investment during the bubble inflation, and corporate profitability has tended to decline. However, it is the financial institutions that suffer the most from the collapse of the bubble economy. As a result of the decline in the price of the real estate secured and the decline in the price of the shares held, it is clear that some of the loans are no longer recoverable, and the large amount of money lent through the so-called "non-banks" has become bad debts. "Like it?

Looking at the development path of RB, Zhao Hong can predict the next step of domestic development and vigorously develop processing trade with export as the goal, so before that, the currency must first be depreciated to promote the development of export-oriented economy.

How to participate in it, this is Zhao Hong's next step is to think about the development opportunities he is looking for, and how to grasp them after finding them.