In the office of the president of Jushi Capital, there are a large number of materials on the table.

After reading these materials, Zhao Jiangchuan was writing and drawing with paper and pen.

He frowns and froze, and occasionally sighs.

After the end of the Second World War in the 50s of the 20th century, the trend of capital globalization could not be stopped.

When the developed countries have serious excess productive forces and the primitive accumulation of capital reaches a certain level, if there is no reasonable and legal way of international trade, expanding the international market, and integrating the raw materials for production, war is inevitable.

Therefore, participating in international trade through the export of agricultural products and low-end industrial products has become an important reason for the rise of Southeast Asian economies in the 70s of the 20th century.

In the 90s of the 20th century, when the Western economy was in recession, Southeast Asian countries relied on the advantages of raw material exports to achieve the 'Asian economic miracle'.

For example, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines are known as one of the "Four Asian Tigers".

Thailand, for example, has an average annual GDP growth rate of 8 per cent, and in 1995, its per capita income exceeded $2,500, making it a middle-income country by the World Bank.

At that time, after Japan's economic strategy was adjusted from foreign trade to foreign investment, Japanese companies took the yen to buy and buy all over the world.

Factories, mergers and acquisitions, rapid expansion.

Japanese companies, especially car companies, are focusing their investments and production bases in Thailand, which is promoting Thailand's economic development.

The rapid development of the economy has made the Thai government fluttering.

However, behind Thailand's high economic growth, in addition to tourism, is a single export model of low value-added agricultural products and labor-intensive industrial products.

It does not have irreplaceable high-tech content, nor does it have a high value-added agricultural terminal.

In other words, the economic strength of Southeast Asian countries is really driven by foreign funds.

The inflow of international capital is invested in speculative projects such as real estate and stock markets in Southeast Asian countries.

But in the field of science and technology and production technology, these countries have not upgraded.

The quality of the labor force has not improved, productivity has remained low, but economic growth has pushed up wages, and the export advantage has gradually declined as labor costs have risen.

In reality, however, Thailand's economic growth is not based on the growth of input-output per unit, but mainly on the increase in external inputs.

In order to determine the price of imports and exports, calculate and control the cost of international trade, and reduce the risk of exchange rate fluctuations.

The Thai government pegged its currency, the Thai baht, to the US dollar and implemented a fixed exchange rate system.

Under a fixed exchange rate system.

The exchange rate is relatively stable, and the fluctuation range of the exchange rate is either spontaneously maintained or artificially maintained.

This has enabled the determination of the prices of imports and exports, the calculation and control of international trade costs, and the repayment of international claims and debts in a relatively stable manner.

The risk of exchange rate fluctuations is reduced.

In addition, the relatively stable exchange rate has also curbed foreign exchange speculation to a certain extent.

Therefore, theoretically, the implementation of a fixed exchange rate system in Thailand at that time played a certain role in promoting economic development.

However, the fixed exchange rate is the exchange rate system that prevails under the gold standard and under the Bretton Woods system.

This system stipulates that the national currency is maintained at a fixed rate with the currencies of other countries, and that exchange rate fluctuations can only be limited to a certain range, and that official intervention ensures the stability of the exchange rate.

A fixed exchange rate is an exchange rate that is basically fixed, and the fluctuation range of the exchange rate is limited to a specified range.

Under the gold standard, the gold delivery point is the boundary between exchange rate fluctuations.

After World War II, a fixed exchange rate system centered on the US dollar was established, and the International Monetary Fund stipulated that the currency parity of member countries should be expressed in a certain amount of gold or US dollars.

The exchange rate of the currencies of the member countries can only fluctuate by 1 per cent of the upper and lower limits within a certain range of the ratio of gold parity.

When the exchange rate of a country's currency against the US dollar fluctuates beyond this range, the country's official obligation is to limit the exchange rate fluctuation to the upper and lower limits of the regulation.

But the Thai government is overconfident in its economy, completely failing to understand that its economic development is driven entirely by foreign capital.

The inelasticity of the exchange rate regime also makes it possible for large amounts of external debt to be left without taking into account exchange rate risks.

All of this laid the groundwork for the subsequent financial crisis.

Irreversible foreshadowing.

Fixed exchange rate: This is an overvaluation of the real value of the Thai baht.

Money on the credit standard has no value in itself.

Its purchasing power is entirely reflected in the combination of science and technology, military, economy, and domestic trade.

In the short term, the Thai baht has maintained a stable appreciation due to the popularity of the stock market and the housing market, and there is room for speculation and arbitrage, but in the long run, it cannot be recognized by the international market.

Not only that, but Thailand also borrowed a large amount of foreign debt at that time to make up for the domestic capital gap.

It also makes full use of the favorable international economic conditions of low oil prices, interest rates and exchange rates to invest in overseas countries and regions such as Japan, Taiwan and South Korea.

With the rapid economic growth, Thailand's bank credit line has increased at a faster rate, and short-term external debt has reached an unprecedented level.

With rising wages and rising prices, Thailand's economy seems to be only one step away from that of developed countries.

But the Thai government did not notice that a significant part of the speculative capital went to real estate and the stock market.

When capital drives asset prices to inflate, in the case of the capitals of Thailand and Malaysia, house prices have skyrocketed more than a dozen times.

All of this contributed to the outbreak of the financial crisis.

The bomb had already been planted.

Even without the Jones Fund, Tiger Fund, and Quantum Fund behind it.

The Southeast Asian financial crisis is still about to erupt.

Studying every major event in the history of finance is a compulsory course for a financial practitioner.

Only by learning from history can we attack and defend against all kinds of things.

Zhao Jiangchuan remembers it very clearly.

At that time, the financial crisis that swept through Southeast Asia first erupted in Thailand.

Between March and June 1997, 66 financial companies in Thailand secretly received substantial liquidity support from Thai banks.

In addition, there has been a massive exodus of capital from Thailand.

The Bank of Thailand, which finally sensed the risk, raised the lending rate to respond to the attack of international capital.

At its peak, Thailand's short-term lending rate soared by 1,000 percent overnight.

That time, the international bears who killed threw away their armor.

However, when the fundamentals of the economy are in trouble, short-term interest rate adjustments are no longer decisive.

After defeating the initial temptation of international capital bears, it buried deeper hidden dangers.

The exchange rate was preserved, but the real estate and stock market could not be saved.

The sharp rise in interest rates has put pressure on Thailand's real economy.

Because rising interest rates mean higher financing costs.

Some speculative capital had to be withdrawn from real estate and the stock market.

But in the face of the wolves, Thailand finally could not escape the fate of being sniped.

Thailand's attempt to use the central bank to use all of its foreign exchange reserves to maintain the peg system ultimately failed.

Stock market, bond market, foreign exchange market, property market.

Total collapse.

None of them were saved.

All of this, including the detonated Southeast Asian economic crisis, fell into the hands of Zhao Jiangchuan, no less than a nuclear bomb.

As long as he buries it in advance, he just needs to wait for the detonation.

With this guy's ambition, he has no interest in drinking soup behind international capital.

Zhao Jiangchuan wants to blow up Southeast Asia in one fell swoop.

。 m.