Chapter 196: Red Bean's Chance (Fourth Update)
Zhao Jiangchuan guessed correctly.
Ye Tan found amphibole investment, the purpose was to hunt a big one.
That's the futures market.
Futures are a type of financial derivative instrument.
The earliest futures dates back to the ancient Greek and Roman periods.
At that time, the European market saw central trading venues, barter transactions, and trading activities with the nature of futures trading.
The first futures exchange in the modern sense was founded in Chicago, USA in 1848, and the model of standard contracts was established in 1865.
Futures are completely different from spot.
Spot is a real commodity that can be traded, such as the grain in the farmer's home, the ore produced by the mining industry, and various finished or semi-finished resources.
Futures are not commodities, they are standardized tradable contracts based on certain mass products such as cotton, soybeans, oil, etc., and financial assets such as stocks and bonds.
Therefore, this subject matter can be a commodity (e.g. gold, crude oil, agricultural products) or a financial instrument.
To put it simply, futures is not trading spot resources, it is trading a standardized contract, which is evolved from a forward commodity contract.
Initially, the cash forward transaction was a verbal commitment by both parties to deliver a certain amount of the commodity at a certain time, and later as the scope of the transaction expanded, the verbal commitment was gradually replaced by a contract of sale and purchase.
This type of contractual act is becoming increasingly complex and requires an intermediary guarantee to supervise the delivery and payment of goods and sellers on time.
The result was the Royal Exchange, the world's first commodity forward exchange, opened in London in 1571.
In order to adapt to the continuous development of the commodity economy, improve the conditions of transport and storage, and provide information to members.
In 1848, 82 businessmen initiated the organization of the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), in 1851 the Chicago Board of Trade introduced forward contracts, and in 1865 the Chicago Grain Exchange introduced a standardized protocol called "futures contracts" to replace the original forward contracts.
This kind of standardized contract allows contracts to change hands, and gradually improves the margin system.
As a result, a futures market specializing in buying and selling standardized contracts was formed, and futures became an investment and financial tool for investors.
Fundamentally speaking, the emergence of the futures market is to achieve the function of risk transfer, and its forward trading method can allow more spot traders to enhance the risk of uncertain market.
However, due to its margin system, the futures market has also become a place for high-frequency speculation.
Initial margin is the amount of money that a trader needs to pay when opening a new position.
It is determined based on the trading volume and margin ratio, i.e. initial margin = trading amount * adjustment margin ratio.
The current minimum margin ratio is 5% of the transaction amount, and it is generally between 3%~8% in the world.
For example, a margin of five percent.
The spot price of soybeans is 2,700 yuan a ton, and if you want to buy and sell 50 tons of soybeans, its value is 135,000 yuan.
But if you take the margin system of futures.
It is possible to trade the value of 135,000 yuan for only 5 percent of the 135,000 yuan, that is, 6,750 yuan.
It has a high degree of leverage, which makes the futures market highly speculative.
It is precisely the high degree of speculation that allows the futures market to attract more funds to settle in.
It is necessary to hedge the value to avoid market risks, and only under high-frequency speculation can the hedging positions in hand be traded.
If there is a stagnant pool, the futures market will be meaningless.
Red adzuki beans.
A small multigrain with high protein, low fat, and multiple nutrients.
Adzuki beans are cultivated in very small areas in the world.
Huaguo is the country with the largest planting area and the largest production of adzuki beans in the world.
The annual output is generally 300,000-400,000 tons, and a considerable part of it is exported to Japan, South Korea and Southeast Asian countries.
Japan is the world's largest producer of adzuki beans, with an annual consumption of about 100,000-120,000 tons.
Its annual output is only 60,000-90,000 tons.
The vast majority of adzuki beans imported from Japan come from China, and the import volume plays a pivotal role in the price trend of adzuki beans in the international market.
But what is interesting is that most of the red adzuki beans imported from Japan are actually sold to China.
Japan imports adzuki beans from China at a very low price, and then carefully processes them to change the name of a tall creature to China, and then exports them to China at a price between 100 and 500 times.
In the early 50s, Japan was the first in the world to launch the trading of adzuki bean futures contracts.
After nearly half a century of renovation, supplementation and improvement, the Tokyo Grain Exchange's adzuki bean futures contract has become the most influential adzuki bean futures variety in the world today.
Since the liberalization of the capital market in the 90s, Huaguo has also been constantly exploring how to use red bean futures trading to serve production and circulation.
Eight exchanges, including Imperial Capital, Magic Capital, Dalian, Changchun, and Hainan, have launched red bean futures trading.
Among them, the Tianjin Stock Exchange and the Jiangsu Stock Exchange are the most active.
In this round of futures market variety adjustment, red beans have been retained and will be listed and traded on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange.
In September 1994, it was affected by the Japanese market.
The price of adzuki beans suddenly entered a long downward cycle.
In just one year, the price of adzuki beans fell from 5,600 yuan a ton to 2,000 yuan a ton.
Affected by the spot market.
The red beans of the Suzhou Commodity Exchange and the Modu Commodity Exchange suddenly fluctuated sharply.
Tianjin Commodity Resources Exchange, red bean 9511 hit a low price of 1640 yuan/ton.
It was also the abnormal fluctuation of red beans that attracted the attention of Ye Tan, the boss.
After Ye Tan has been tracking the red bean market for a long time, he found that Tokyo has the capital to jointly snipe the bean bean in the Chinese market.
The grain is cheap and hurts the peasants.
The yield of adzuki beans is inherently low, and if the price of adzuki beans falls below the cost of cultivation, this can be completely destroyed.
At that time, Japan will be able to expand the cultivation area of adzuki beans and completely monopolize the global price of adzuki beans.
The market is never just decided by buyers.
When it becomes a seller's market, the price is not as much as Japan says.
It was an extinction program for crops.
In addition, when Japan United Capital uses the spot in its hands to suppress the market, it can still make huge profits.
That's the futures market.
The emergence of the futures market is based on the spot market.
Spot is affected by futures, which are also an expectation of spot prices.
With a high degree of leverage, the Japanese consortium can use the funds in its hands to sell red bean contracts unlimitedly.
By shorting red beans to hedge the losses of the spot market, there will also be a certain amount of profit to be made.
Under the influence of the collapse of the price of adzuki beans on the largest exchange in Tokyo, the domestic adzuki bean market has also been greatly impacted.
In the three domestic exchanges, the price of adzuki beans has plummeted.
It is precisely because of this that Ye Tan saw the opportunity.
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