Lin Han said: "In the field of meteorological services, the development of China is very slow, and since we are ready to participate, the goal is to be the leader of this industry." ”

At present, the largest weather company in China, the company's valuation is only a few hundred million yuan, and Accueather, the largest meteorological service company in the United States, can reach one billion dollars in revenue a year.

Director Zhang thought for a moment: "The meteorological service market, I personally think, the potential is not too great. Otherwise, our Meteorological Bureau would not have been able to operate only on financial allocations. ”

Lin Han smiled and said: "The market for meteorological services, compared with some popular industries, is indeed not too huge, but there are still tens of billions. ”

"In the field of meteorological services, there is a famous Delphi meteorological law, which says that for every 1 yuan invested in meteorological information, you can get an economic return of 98 yuan, that is, the input-output ratio of meteorological services is as high as 1:98...... in other words, although the market size of meteorological services is not large, but the rate of return is still considerable. ”

"The Meteorological Bureau is not profitable because it is tasked with predicting weather and severe weather, which does not require much time and accuracy. ”

"For example, when the temperature reaches 22°C, beer starts to sell well," he says. When the temperature reaches 24°C, swimwear starts to sell well. Temperatures above 30°C have led to a significant increase in sales of iced beverages......"

Weather changes can have a variety of effects, and in addition to these relatively easy to understand, there are some things that are unimaginable.

For example, a very interesting fact is that in typhoon weather, the favorite thing for American people to buy is not flashlight or rain gear, but strawberry pie.

This surprising conclusion was discovered by Walmart's big data analysis department.

As the world's largest supermarket chain, Walmart pays great attention to the collection and analysis of various data, including meteorological data.

More than a decade ago, Walmart's data group stumbled upon this strange piece of information: Before every major typhoon, sales of strawberry jam toast cookies increased sevenfold.

This message is very strange and difficult to understand. But that's the case every time, without exception.

As a result, before each subsequent typhoon landed, Wal-Mart supermarkets would purchase strawberry pies in advance in supermarkets in the area where the typhoon landed, and make a fortune.

"These temperature data that can guide related industries are relatively accurate and specific, 30°C can only be 30°C, 29°C is not enough. But the Meteorological Bureau only needs to tell people about hot and cold, and the difference between 29°C and 30°C is actually not big. ”

Director Zhang lifted his black-framed glasses and paused for a moment: "Hmm...... The technical threshold for accurate prediction is still very high, can Vientiane do it to this extent?"

Lin Han stretched out a finger: "Within a year, we can preliminarily build a comprehensive meteorological forecasting service in Handong Province." ”

"At that time, it will not only be a prediction of catastrophic weather. In the general field, Vientiane can also provide a certain degree of correction service for the Meteorological Bureau. ”

Director Zhang asked: "If the Meteorological Bureau buys your weather prediction service and rainstorm prediction service, how much can the accuracy be improved?"

Lin Han said: "The accuracy rate of weather and rain prediction can be improved to more than 90%, and as for heavy rain, it is about 25%. ”

At present, the accuracy rate of domestic weather forecasts is about 87%, which is quite high and in the forefront of the world.

Rainstorm forecasting is a prediction of the strength of the rain, which is more demanding, with an accuracy rate of 22% in China and only 27% in the United States.

It is not easy to improve the accuracy of weather forecasts by one percent, and an increase of three percent is already a very outstanding progress.

Lin Han's intermediate meteorological authority, of course, has an accuracy rate of 100%, but if he is asked to predict the weather every day and write a series of reports, it will be too troublesome.

However, with his ability and the full use of computer technology, it is not a problem to increase the accuracy rate of weather forecasts to 90% and heavy rain forecasts to 25%.

Director Zhang was suddenly moved: "So many!"

He, the director of the Meteorological Bureau, will be transferred to a vacant post and prepare for retirement after a year or two at most.

If he can improve the accuracy of his predictions to so much in the next two years, maybe he can go one step further and be promoted to the deputy ministerial level!

You must know that the retirement age for cadres at the department level is 60 years old, but the retirement age at the deputy ministerial level is 65 years old.

Further up, the retirement age at the ministerial level can reach 68 years old......

Of course, if the ministerial level is further up, Zhang Shihou will not dare to think about it. He also knows in his heart that he is two pounds, and if he can retire at the ministerial level, it is the ancestral tomb that breathes fire.

Lin Han looked at Director Zhang's expression, vaguely guessed in his heart, thought for a while, and then said with a smile: "Actually, if we are willing, it is not impossible to increase the accuracy rate of weather and rain to 92%, and the accuracy rate of rainstorm prediction to 27%, but the cost will be greatly increased." ”

"However, if the Provincial Meteorological Bureau is willing to provide us with some technical assistance, we are willing to provide the Provincial Bureau with this most efficient forecast at the usual price. ”

To increase the accuracy rate by another 2%, from the perspective of pure technology, Lin Han is not sure in the short term.

However, even if it is not enough, it is still easy for him to spend a little more effort himself, correct a few mistakes casually, and improve by two percentage points.

As for the future, with the progress of prediction technology, this accuracy rate can still be achieved, after all, Europe and the United States have already done it, which shows that it is not too advanced black technology.

But this accuracy rate is not ordinary for the Meteorological Bureau.

"The accuracy rate of weather and rain prediction reaches 92%, and the accuracy rate of rainstorm prediction reaches 27%", this is not the planning goal of the Provincial Meteorological Bureau after three years, and the programmatic document is clearly determined!

Achieve your planning tasks three years ahead of schedule!

Director Zhang's eyes lit up: "This is a good thing for the benefit of the people, and the Meteorological Bureau is of course willing to support it." As long as you have the determination and the technology, we will provide the necessary help. ”

If three percentage points greatly increases the probability of his promotion, then five percentage points, promotion is already a sure thing.

This made Zhang Shihou, who was over fifty years old, suddenly have a kind of ambition in his heart.

Lin Han also smiled: "Director Zhang is really a person for the people, which is admirable. ”

Zhang Shihou laughed, and then said: "Of course, the interests of the people of the country must be put first, just like Lin Zexu's poem. ”

"The strength is weak, the responsibility is heavy for a long time, and the ...... will not be exhausted."