Most of the news from Jinsheng Group is about business operations, especially coal sales.

Zuo Danya believes that among all the work, Zhang Xiaobei likes business work the most.

In the business work, Zhang Xiaobei believes that sales is the leader, and Zhang Xiaobei himself started as a salesman.

So he should be more concerned about sales.

Therefore, the news about the coal market and the news about Jinsheng's business situation have been continuous.

Zuo Danya also tried her best to read it to Zhang Xiaobei word by word.

Regardless of whether Zhang Xiaobei could hear it or not, she read it extremely carefully and carefully.

It is very likely that half of the relevant words will stimulate Zhang Xiaobei's nerves and make him wake up suddenly.

To save a person, it is not to reassure him of everything, but to make him feel at ease of everything, so that he can have thoughts.

"In the fourth quarter of 2012, coal demand continued to be weak. The overall situation of 'limited production and price protection' has been generally formed. ”

"Coal imports have been suppressed, and prices may fluctuate slightly, but not much. ”

"In the fourth quarter, the economy will continue to grow at a lower level, but the risk of a further decline in growth has decreased. ”

"This determines that the overall coal demand in G will continue to be weak, but the possibility of further demand contraction is greatly reduced. ”

"There are three main reasons why it is judged that the economic growth in G will continue to be at a low level. ”

"First, affected by the European debt crisis, the eurozone economy has shrunk, and the world economy as a whole is weak. ”

"It is difficult to be optimistic about the foreign trade situation of our country, and the role of exports in driving economic growth is extremely limited. ”

"Second, the F real estate regulation policy within G will continue, and the investment in F real estate development will still be inhibited to a certain extent. ”

"F real estate regulation and the negative impact of exports, the overall fixed asset investment growth pressure is still large. ”

"Third, factors such as car purchase restrictions, income F distribution structure, etc., will also continue to restrict the growth of consumer demand. ”

"So, all things considered, coal demand as a whole will remain weak in this scenario. ”

"In addition, by the fourth quarter, the situation of spontaneous or passive production restrictions on coal production capacity in 2012 has basically stabilized, and coal imports have also entered a stage of suppression, and a new supply and demand relationship is about to be formed, and price fluctuations are not expected to be too large. ”

It seems that everything is as Zhang Xiaobei expected, and the coal situation in the fourth quarter of 2012 is still not optimistic, only slightly fluctuating.

In other words, the sales price of coal in 2012 can only stop falling in the fourth quarter, and it is impossible to rise.

In fact, as of the end of December 2012, the annual sales task of Jinsheng Group was basically completed.

Moreover, the price level still reached the level expected by Zhang Xiaobei, and it was also nearly dozens of dollars a ton higher than expected.

From January to December 2012, the average selling price of lump carbon of Jinsheng Group was 1160 yuan/ton.

Compared with 2011, the average price of lump carbon decreased by 138 yuan/ton.

The average annual selling price of coal was 717 yuan/ton.

Compared with the average price of coal at the end of 2011, it was 124 yuan/ton.

The average selling price of coal was 890 yuan/ton, 167 yuan/ton lower than that in 2011.

For the coal market in 2013, the people of the sales branch made the following judgments:

"First, there is still an oversupply effect, secondly, there are still uncertainties about policy Z, and finally, it will take time for prices to recover. ”

"The first reason is that the integration of secondary coal resources in Tang Province is about to begin. ”

"It is reported that the second round of coal resource integration work in Tang Province is about to begin, and it will be accompanied by the transfer of coal mine ownership and mine upgrade requirements. ”

"What will be followed may be a period of rectification and suspension of production. ”

"In other words, it is still necessary to achieve advanced production capacity and backward production capacity to withdraw. ”

"After the merger and reorganization of the first coal mine in Tang Province, among the more than 1,100 existing coal mines, the ratio of G owned, private and mixed ownership is 2:3:5. ”

"The proportion of mines owned by private enterprises is still very large, the proportion of mines operated separately is still very high, and the concentration of production is still not high. ”

"However, the proportion of mixed-ownership mines has risen rapidly, and mixed-ownership reform is estimated to be the main direction of reform in the future. ”

"So this integration may lead to a slight tightening of coal supply for some time periods. ”

"The goal of this integration is a large group, a large base, and a large coordination mechanism. ”

Well, this is to tell Zhang Xiaobei that the property rights reform you thought before is still going on.

It's just that the goal of reform is getting higher and higher, and this time we want to build a bigger group and a bigger base.

Moreover, the reform of mixed ownership is a new direction, which is a good time for the full implementation of the modern enterprise system!

Also, if you don't wake up again, this big drama of reform and the market will have nothing to do with you.

……

"In 2013, the overall coal output in Tang Province is not expected to be greatly reduced, and the situation of oversupply will still exist. ”

Well, that's the conclusion of the first point:

It may be that through the second resource integration, the output has been reduced to a certain extent, but it has not yet been reduced to the time when it is fully in line with the demand, and this must be gradually adjusted.

The second reason is that in the "2012 Implementation Plan for the Development of the Coal Industry" Twelfth Five-Year Plan issued by the F Reform Commission, the top three major coal producing areas in Mongolia, Tang and Qin provinces are expected to reduce production. ”

After that, Tang Province reported that the expected target set was too low. ”

"In the past two years, the heavy industry in Tang Province has developed rapidly, and its own demand has grown rapidly. ”

"At the same time, 70%-80% of the coal in Tang Province is transferred outside the province, and once the reduction is excessive, it may affect the supply. ”

According to this news, it is also expected that coal production in Tang Province will not be reduced much in 2013. ”

Therefore, it is again expected that the oversupply of coal supply in Tang Province will still exist in 2013. ”

Well, although there is the support of the second round of coal resource integration, it is a fact that the reality of industrial development is placed and cannot be avoided.

Moreover, the progress of the second round of resource integration should not be so fast.

After all, this is a big move, and it will be difficult to complete it in a few years.

Therefore, in the evening of 2013, as the first year of the secondary integration work, it is still unknown how much the output can be reduced.

"The third reason, after D's pick-up, is initially expected that new economic stimulus policies may be introduced. ”

"Although the F Reform Commission has accelerated the approval of projects, mainly in water conservancy, electric power, environmental protection, high-speed rail, rail transit, telecommunications, affordable housing and infrastructure construction in the central and western regions. ”

"This is a slight boost to chemical products and industrial chemical raw materials, but the construction of the project will take a certain amount of time. ”

This means that there is still some waiting time for the policy to take effect. ”

"Therefore, it will take time for the national macro policy to bring support to the anthracite market. ”

"In short, in 2013, the uncertainty of the recovery of the world economy and the economy within G, the uncertainty of the implementation of stimulus policies, and the expected uncertainty of coal companies to stop production and limit production...... These are all possibilities. ”

"All of this will lead to periodic shocks in coal prices, but these are all symptoms, and it will take time for the real price to recover. ”

Zhang Xiaobei, look at what has become of this coal market, it is very likely that the price of your 620 yuan of coal will not be able to be maintained next year.

If you don't wake up, what will you do with Jinsheng Group, there are still tens of thousands of employees waiting for you to feed.

Look at it, the comprehensive cost of your Jinsheng Group is expected in 2013, let me Zuo Danya calculate it for you, you can listen well, Zhang Xiaobei.

"In 2013, Jinsheng Group's comprehensive cost per ton of coal was 340 yuan. ”

"Among them, various withdrawal fees and taxes are 124 yuan. ”

In addition, the wages of your Jinsheng Group's employees and the "five insurances and one housing fund" have not been reduced at all, 146 yuan/ton. ”

"It's nearly more than half of the profit, and it's quite conscientious. ”

"It is preliminarily expected that the lump coal price of your Jinsheng in 2013 will be reduced to 990 yuan/ton, the final coal sales price will be reduced to 450 yuan/ton, and the overall average price will be reduced to 630 yuan/ton. ”

In other words, there is a profit margin of up to 290 yuan. ”

"The cost depreciation after the technical transformation of the mine is also getting bigger day by day. ”

"In recent years, the total investment in technological transformation has reached more than 20Y, and the depreciation of fixed assets has directly increased by 15 yuan per ton of coal. ”

"The cost of financing is high. In order to ensure the production, construction and normal operation of the group's subordinate mines, and at the same time affected by the high price level, the loan continues to increase, and the cost of financial expenses per ton of coal will increase by more than 30 yuan per ton. ”

"The cost of compensation for the relocation of villages and land subsidence in the mining area is high. ”

"In recent years, Jinsheng Group has invested about 4Y yuan in this area, which will be amortized over 5 years, and the cost of coal per ton will increase by 15 yuan. ”

"After the integration of resources, the fixed cost is large. Every year, Jinsheng Group needs to pay more than 30 million yuan in compensation to the village where the integrated mine is located, and the cost per ton of coal will increase by 10 yuan. ”

……

Zhang Xiaobei, wake up quickly, look at this coal mine, it's not as good as a year, your cost has risen by dozens of yuan.

Of course, the rising cost of financing is the main reason, and you have Jinsheng City and supply chain companies as cash flow support, which is still much better than other companies.

But profits are decreasing, costs are rising, and if you don't get up, Jinshengke will really be more and more difficult day by day.