With a hundred voters, theoretically the probability of guessing the final result is 1 in 101, which is much higher considering the almost impossible one-sided situation, but even so, there are still many possibilities, and it is almost impossible to choose the correct answer in an all-or-nothing gamble.

Donald was so interested in deceiving people that he didn't tell Li Yuan about it until he signed the agreement.

To his surprise, Li Yuan did not panic because of this.

Donald muttered to himself, unsure if the other party was really confident or pretending to be calm.

Compared with Li Yuan, Paris and the others were not so calm, and when they learned that the bet was on the final votes rather than the impeachment result, Paris, who had planned to participate, retreated. After she failed to persuade Li Yuan, she finally symbolically followed 100,000 US dollars, but Nicole, although she was also not optimistic about Li Yuan, followed 300,000 US dollars.

is also a moral support, or reflects the difference between the two.

……

How to bet on zero, there is a special investment company in charge, non-stop rushed to an investment company in New York recommended by Yuntong Company, signed a commission agreement and confidentiality agreement with a lot of commission, Li Yuan finally breathed a sigh of relief.

said that he was relieved, but in fact, his heart was still there.

He still knows about the butterfly effect, and can only hope that his little butterfly will not affect the final voting result.

……

"To be honest, it's the first time in my life that I've seen a crazy gambler like you, and I really don't know where your confidence comes from......"

The head of the investment company chattered.

In his opinion, Li Yuan is burning his head with a lot of money, like this kind of gambling with too much uncertainty, it is the best way to disperse the bet after a comprehensive analysis of the probability, and the worst can also minimize the loss, but Li Yuan did not play according to the routine at all, and directly chose to snort.

Li Yuan's confidence naturally stems from the "prophet".

Yes, he knows the final vote on Bilton's impeachment.

Precisely, the specific number of votes cast on the charge of "obstruction of justice".

When I was a student at the University of Political Science and Law in my last life, the teacher talked about this case, and I almost forgot everything else, except for the votes for this accusation.

A very special "score"

50：50。

……

After leaving the investment company, the absent-minded crowd went straight back to the hotel.

It was night, stimulated by the adrenal glands, and several people were so excited that they finally forgot who proposed the drink, and then ......

Nothing happened.

The next day, a scream woke Li Yuan from his hangover.

He jumped out of bed and rushed out of the bedroom to the living room, where he found several disheveled girls yelling like crazy.

Li Yuan rubbed his temples and asked, "What are you doing?"

"Hit! Hit! Hit!"

Paris shouted, pointing to the TV. Then he pounced on him, kissed Li Yuan on the face, hugged his head tightly to his chest, and shouted: "Oh my God! incredible, incredible! Li, you won, you are simply the illegitimate son of God......

"Paris, calm down, Lee is going to suffocate!"

"You want me to calm down? God, I should be calm and calm, I'm so stupid, I shouldn't doubt him......"

……

Ten minutes later.

The girls' mood finally stabilized.

Li Yuan rubbed his messy hair and said, "Girls, do you want to wash up first?"

The girls looked at each other and fled.

"Hoo ......"

Li Yuan let out a long breath and stared at the news screen on the TV

After looking at it for a long time, he suddenly stood up, slowly raised his arms, and shook hard.

This action seemed to drain all his strength, and Li Yuan immediately collapsed, sat on the ground, and grinned silently.

……

In the following day, the most common phrase Li Yuan heard was "incredible", including Donald.

Donald congratulated Li Yuan on the phone, and from his tone, he could hear that his bowels were now repentant. Despite his regrets, he showed a minimum of grace and had no intention of tearing up the agreement.

Maybe he would prefer to maintain a good personal relationship with Li Yuan?

Who knows.

……

Some people laugh, and naturally some people cry.

February 12, 1999 was a sad day for several major lottery companies in the United Kingdom.

The British lottery industry is very developed and full of tricks, but in the final analysis, there are no more than two types of true random events and pseudo-random events.

True random events are represented by digital lotteries, such as n-color balls, which are like flipping a coin, and winning or losing is determined by probability.

Pseudo-random events, such as the soccer lottery. The result of a football game, in addition to the difference in strength between the two teams, is also affected by many accidental factors, such as the player's state on the field, the weather, the atmosphere of the game, etc...... This may seem random, but in fact the weights of various factors are different, and although the outcome is still determined by probability, it can be narrowed down by calculation.

The way the two types of lotteries operate is different.

True random events are less likely, so you need to increase your winnings to increase your attractiveness, or even manipulate the "number pattern" to attract gamblers who think they are smart.

If you are even more undisciplined, you can even take advantage of the time difference between the suspension of sales and the lottery to artificially interfere with the final result.

Pseudo-random events are more likely to be calculated because of their computability, so the bonus will be reduced accordingly, and the odds and other forms will be used to affect the betting tendency of bettors, and ultimately realize the banker's profit.

Of course, because pseudo-random events are affected by many uncertain factors, the undisciplined lottery company will also take the necessary measures to make the results not exceed the expected which is why match-fixing has been repeatedly banned.

……

The impeachment case of the US president this time is a pseudo-random incident, which is not much different from a ball game.

If there is any difference, it is probably the cost of cheating.

The cost and difficulty of buying referees, players and even two clubs to play match-fixing may seem very high, but large lottery companies can still do it.

But buy a hundred judicial commissars......

What are you kidding, if the company can do it, it is better to change careers and campaign.

The bet was generally fair, with the bookmakers acting more like stockbrokers, accepting money from many people betting on various outcomes, handing out the winners at the end of the event, and the remaining profits in return for their services.

In order to protect as much profit as possible, actuaries, also known as traders or opening experts, will set odds based on statistical probability and public opinion, with the goal of presenting an approximate chance of each outcome, so as to protect the interests of the company as much as possible.

The odds set by the Bocai company for the "score prediction" of this impeachment case are 1:8. That is, if you put in £1 and guess correctly, you get £8.

This odds seem to be quite high, in fact, it has been carefully calculated, under the premise of ensuring attractiveness, no matter how many people guess, there will be more people who guess wrong, and the lottery company can eventually make a profit.

It's a pity that I ran into Li Yuan's catfish.

……

John is a senior executive at William Hill, and the odds of 1:8 this time were set by his team

After an hour-long scolding from his superiors, John returned to the office dejected.

An actuary named Duke greeted him and asked, "Are you alright?"

"It's fine. John picked up the Coke that he didn't know who put on the table, poured it violently, and said with a bitter face: "We have planted ...... this time."

"I just checked and there is nothing wrong with the odds we set. "If I have to say anything, I can only blame the betting shops for closing so late, and the winners came in an inexplicable way, all of them concentrated an hour before the closing of bets," Duke said. ”

"You want to say that these people did it on purpose? That's what I explained to the above, but the question is, how did they guess it? There's no way to explain it, is it?"

"yes, that's not at all. ”

Duke had a headache: "A total of 3,000 bets, all of which are bets on the voting results of 'obstruction of justice', from the perspective of betting psychology, bettors are obviously full of confidence." ”

"Have you found the source of the funds?"

"See for yourself......"

Duke held his laptop and motioned for John to read the message.

John looked at it for a while and said, "It's very professional, so professional that it's hard to find out the way here, but at least one question is answered." ”

"What's the problem?"

"It's a group of people, or even a person, otherwise there's no need to dig out a cover-up. ”

"Makes sense, but what does that mean?"

"I can't say anything. John shook his head and said, "If you have to say, it sounds better to be defeated by big investors than to be defeated by retail investors?"

"Who the hell are they? Billton, right?"

"No kidding, Bilton wouldn't have been so embarrassed if he could really guess what every judicial councillor was thinking. To be honest, I'd rather believe that he's a 'man of the future'. ”

……

On the morning of the thirteenth, Li Yuan had breakfast in the restaurant on the first floor of the hotel and was about to leave when a man suddenly stopped him.

"Hello, can you have a chat?"

"Who are you?"

"My name is Smith and this is my business card. ”

A very special business card with only three capital letters of the CIA written on it.

Li Yuan glanced at it, casually clasped it on the table, and asked, "Is Smith your first name, last name, or code name?"

"It doesn't matter. Importantly, you need my help now. ”

Smith smiled and pulled out a chair and sat down.

Li Yuan sat down again and said, "I don't know if there's anything to worry about CIA. ”

"Let me be blunt, a friend of mine would like to see you, and by the way, he's British. As for the reason, I think you should be very clear. ”

"I've always heard that the British don't have much energy, and it seems to be the case now. ”

Li Yuan smiled dumbly: "Since you know the reason, can you tell me first, do they plan to repay the debt?"

"No, you're mistaken. ”

Smith said: "Rules are rules, and the company will not refuse anyone to bet, let alone pay the bills." My friend is just a little curious about you, and of course, I'm just as curious personally. ”

Smith was curious about what Li Yuan was aware of.

A Chinese guesses the outcome of the presidential impeachment case in advance, which is quite a stimulus to the US intelligence community. To be honest, Li Yuan thought that it might attract the attention of these people, but he didn't expect them to come so quickly.

However, since Smith did not hide his identity, at least he said that he did not have much malice.

Li Yuan thought for a while and said, "Yes." You tell him to come over, I'll wait for you upstairs. ”