Chapter 570: Compressing the Competitors
The role of scientific and technological progress in reducing is clear. Signatures, seals, secret marks...... Software programs, step by step, reduce the possibility of black-box operation, especially when a technology has just been invented, its preventive effect is the strongest.
In the early 90s, large oil companies were already familiar with the use of various computer programs, and as early as around the 70s, supercomputers and large-frame computers were used in the petrochemical industry, and they were the first industrial systems to purchase large-scale and supercomputers. However, the time for computers to enter the bidding in the oilfield has been greatly delayed, and although the transparency of the bidding may reduce the success of the bidding enterprises, it is not worth mentioning compared with the bidding price.
In less than 10 years, the international oil bidding will become an electronic screen bidding, and all the information of the company, the bidding price, etc., will be scrolled on the electronic screen of the bidding, allowing the oil companies to re-bid, transparent and terrible, and the final result is naturally that the income of the oil-producing countries will be greatly increased, and the profits of the oil companies will be greatly reduced.
It only took about 5 years to go from $30 to $10 to $100 and $5.
It can be said that the 90s were the last decade for oil companies to get the dividends of oilfield bidding, and the wonderful sharing contracts and the black-box operation per second complemented each other, achieving the last glory of the Seven Sisters of Oil in the 20th century.
After that, oil companies have to rely on management and derivative value to make money.
The powerlessness of new energy companies in the face of super oil companies has been laid as early as one or two decades ago. Half a century of accumulation has not only created countless oil companies with assets of 100 billion US dollars, but also created many billionaires with assets of 10 billion yuan, as well as trust funds with assets of 100 billion yuan. As for the wealthy who no one can say the total amount of assets, they were born as early as the Rockefeller era, and the complex system of trusts and shares made it impossible for modern accounting systems to calculate the amount of their assets.
Businesses of these sizes. It is almost impossible to defeat commercially. And enterprises and individuals with such super-sized assets have always pursued a low-risk or even risk-free strategy.
Diversification, for example, has been imprinted almost in the soul of the mega-oil companies since the 60s.
When the official bidding of Azerbaijan began. None of the super-oil companies have chosen to bid independently, and they are significantly more concerned about the ultra-high risk than the ultra-high profits.
Opposite. In the end, 12 large and medium-sized enterprises applied for independent bidding for one or more oilfields, including Dahua Industrial.
In this regard, Sioux City has some expectations. But I was still a little surprised.
He doesn't remember how Azerbaijani oil in history was subdivided in the end, only that BP did the big winners.
But now we can see again. BP did not choose to bid independently for any of the fields. Correspondingly. At least 20 oil developers have chosen to bid for oil fields in cooperation with BP.
If BP were to be the big winner, the joint bidding group it participated in would have to get more than half of the oil fields!
Thinking of this, Su Cheng couldn't help but turn his gaze to the right. There sat Ducatt and his allies, crowded with hundreds. And they were divided into different small groups, and the discussion was extremely intense.
For many small companies, getting a 10% stake in a large oil field is enough to achieve the goal.
Sioux City stared at the representatives of the companies that he might not even be able to name. In fact, such small and medium-sized oil development companies are the most numerous, but their strength is not necessarily weak. For example, the Sabatta Company, once owned by the Bush family, was founded and run by the younger Bush Sr., relying on his father's connections and background as a Connecticut senator and a Wall Street banker. Such companies may not have the best technology or the most powerful assets, but their performance in the bidding is unpredictable. It can be said that what the second and third generations of officials in China are doing, and the second and third generations of officials in foreign countries are also doing, and the means are also generally dirty and ugly, the difference is only that China's degree of development is low, and the business of the second and third generations of officials will inevitably have too much contact with ordinary people, while the high degree of development in foreign countries, the ugly side of the second and third generations of officials will rarely appear in public.
Sioux City looked at others, and others looked at him.
After a while, Shigeru Nishioka of the Japanese Inpex Company came to Su Cheng, blocked his sight and said with a smile: "Chairman Su, I heard that Dahua Industrial is going to independently bid for the No. 6 oilfield, and we are opponents." ”
Shigeru Nishioka was humble, as if he was admitting his mistake and informing Sioux City, which was not easy to do from a polite point of view.
The saying that many people are not strange can always be reflected in the Japanese people. The other party bent down and bowed, and Su Cheng was not aggressive, so he nodded indifferently and said, "Really......? I wish you all the best. ”
"Thank you. "Shigeru Nishioka has rough skin and deep wrinkles on his forehead, like a driller more than an office high-rise. His tone was extremely sincere, "Nippon International Petroleum Development Co., Ltd. will form a bidding panel with the National Oil Company of Malaysia and Nippon Oil Co., Ltd. to jointly bid for the No. 6, No. 8 and No. 9 oil fields. ”
He paused for a moment and added: "Although it is a competitor, Inpex is still eager to cooperate with Dahua Industrial in other fields. Once the bidding is over, we hope to be able to discuss this matter with you again. ”
In the sixties and seventies, Japanese oil companies entered the field of crude oil development in the world in a big way, and acquired a large number of oil fields. In terms of time, if the conditions and management of the oil fields they acquired in the early days are not ideal, the oil fields have entered the production decline curve. As a result, Japanese oil companies, like established oil companies, are enthusiastic about tertiary oil recovery.
Su Cheng said indifferently: "This is the matter, you send someone to talk to Dahua." Of course, if you are willing to give up the bidding competition with Dahua, you can talk about cooperation now. ”
Dahua's tertiary oil recovery technology is ready to be sold for money, because this is a technology that is being intensively developed, and in two years, Dahua's technology will definitely be updated, and other companies may also develop their own tertiary oil recovery technology.
Shigeru Nishioka did not accept Dahua Industrial's request for technology exchange bidding rights before, and he will not accept it now, but said with a humble smile: "The bidding for the oil field was decided by the president. I don't have the right to change it. Nevertheless, I sincerely hope to discuss cooperation with Dahua Industrial in the future. ”
"Next time. ”
"Until next time. Shigeru Nishioka bowed another 75 degrees, turned and walked towards the Exxon oil company representative not far away.
Su Cheng waited for him to go a little farther, and whispered to Zhang Chao: "How many companies are bidding for the No. 6 oilfield?"
"A lot. Zhang Chao stretched out his hand. "The analysis team is discussing which companies are competitive, and at the moment, there are at least seven companies that have a strong interest in the No. 6 oilfield. ”
Azerbaijan released a bit of a lot of oil fields this time, plus time is tight. As a result, each company has to focus on bidding for some of these oil fields according to its own strength and focus. Even cooperative bidding is no exception.
The only thing special is BP.
Since the mid-90s, the most perverted oil companies have been BP, which has pursued an "elephant" policy, and they have appeared in almost every corner of the world. They have always been able to capture the most fertile oil fields, and their continued success has led them to expand by selling assets from other parts of the company. BP was able to secure a significant amount of funding. to support their own expansion.
Guided by this business strategy, BP even sold its proud chemical group for nearly $20 billion. As a result of this great success, bp's elephant policy has been increasingly praised by countless business schools as a teaching material, and has been hailed as the "dance of elephants". However, there are very few companies that can actually replicate elephant dance. The replicas are mostly somewhere between a drunken elephant and a mad elephant.
As a British company, BP works in a more brutal way than American companies, and naturally more violently than Asian and South American companies, as if it were a representative of the new imperialist companies. In Azerbaijan, bp is the only company that has shown its ambition to win every oil field, and for this reason, they have organized at least six or seven company groups, which is equivalent to sending three or four times the number of employees from the headquarters to Dahua, in order to get the most oil fields.
As it turned out, they did, and BP was able to get a lot of oil from Azerbaijan, even if it didn't take into account the gains and losses of the Aziju oil fields.
At present, Dahua Industrial, if it wants to fight against the complete BP, it is tantamount to an idiot's dream. Sioux City's strategic focus is the No. 6 oil field, and he only cares about the gains and losses of the No. 6 oil field, and he doesn't care about what the four-company consortium can achieve in the end.
Only about one-third of the companies that participated in the bidding were also interested in the No. 6 field, which is an offshore field, which is inherently high and requires a higher level of technology, which discourages many companies.
Of course, if they had known that the production of the Aziju field would be more than half of that of the 11 fields, there would have been a different result.
But for now, it is unlikely that all companies will be bidding for the No. 6 field.
Su Cheng therefore asked, "Which companies are interested in No. 6?"
Zhang Chao glanced at the notes he was carrying with his backhand, and exhaled: "Exxon Company Group, 4 companies." bp's corporate group, 6 companies. Shell group of companies, 3 companies. Chevron's corporate group, 5 companies. Total group of companies, 2 companies. Just now, the Japanese inpex company group, 3 companies, plus 4 companies to form the Eni group of the group, and we, there are at least 8 relatively strong competitive teams, in addition, there are several independent or joint bidding groups. ”
Su Cheng combined the information he saw in Aliyev and thought for a while: "You can't just let them bid for the No. 6 oil field, you have to find a way to compress them." ”
Zhang Chao was surprised: "How to compress?"
"The Information Bureau provides the information, and your Strategy Department thinks of a way. Su Cheng recalled the bidding strategy he had learned in school, breathed a sigh of relief, and said, "Like the Japanese inpex, I have the impression that they are the money bags of the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party." In July this year, the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan stepped down, and Prime Minister Yoshiki Miyazawa resigned...... Well, there have been many scandals within the Liberal Democratic Party, I don't believe that INPEX is clean, and now Hosokawa Gohei is the prime minister, right? The eight-party coalition government, the New Party must be very poor, we provide funds to them, let them tighten Inpex's funds, check the relevant banks, check Inpex's expenses, no matter what, as long as Inpex and Nippon Oil choose a contraction strategy, it will be considered a success. ”
Su Cheng said it so clearly, naturally he had done research. Zhang Chao nodded hurriedly and said, "I'll send someone to make a plan immediately." But...... Even if the Japanese Party is willing to accept money, it is estimated that it will not dare to do it too obviously, and it is unlikely that it will force Inpex to withdraw......"
"The lower the bid of other companies without them withdrawing. The less we pay, the lower the amount we can choose, and the lower it is, the more we win. "Sioux City agreed to Aliyev's state loan and other conditions, which means that it will be able to get the bidding reserve price of the companies directly from Aliyev, and when the time comes. As long as you look at the bids of other companies and offer a slightly higher price, you can get the Azijiu oil field.
If it is a large oil field like Setan, it is enough to have such preparations. It doesn't matter if you get 1% more or 1% less.
However, the Aziju oil field is a super oil field. After 2000. Its peak production capacity will exceed 1.3 million barrels per day, and at the market price of $100, it means that the daily output value will be 1.3 billion US dollars, and Dahua Industrial will get a 45% share or 46% share, and the difference will be 1.3 million a day, and there will be a gap of 400 million US dollars a year.
At the same time, 30 years. For 31-year or 35-year contracts, the gap is even more obvious, and 1 percentage point is put into a 35-year contract, which is about 10 billion US dollars. Rather than giving the Azerbaijani government so much money, Sioux City would rather be used to bribe the political opponents behind several corporate groups.
He has spent so much energy on the Aqijiu oil field, so naturally he wants to get the maximum profit as much as possible.
Each oil company has its own problems and contradictions, and the problems and contradictions will only become more prominent in the group of companies composed of several companies, and if they are used well, they will naturally be able to get the results that Sioux City wants -- after any collective has contradictions, their solution can only be compromise and conservatism. For the oil groups participating in the bidding process, the first choice of compromise and conservatism must be to lower their bids in the dark bid.
Eventually, these lower bids will return a significant amount of profit to Sioux City. Judging from the current Japanese political scene, 100 million yen is already very good for bribing party bosses, and 500 million yen is more than enough for the prime minister. In the "Lockheed case" that bribed Kakuei Tanaka back then, Lockheed Corporation adopted a secret public relations battle in order to forcibly reverse the aircraft contract, and it only cost 3 billion yen.
Sioux City just wanted a conservative contraction plan, and it was initiated by the political opposition, believing that the politicians who were old and sophisticated had enough means to achieve their goals, and they might not be able to use 100 million yen to accomplish their intentions.
In addition to JOC, BP's supporters are the current opposition Labor Party, Exxon and Chevron are notoriously sensitive companies, and they are easily influenced by domestic politics under the premise of not knowing that the No. 6 oil field is a super oil field.
What made Zhang Chao scratch his head was that the time was too short, and Sioux City's plan was so complicated, involving at least seven or eight countries, even if there was a mature bribery channel, these things would not be smooth sailing.
However, Zhang Chao could only grudgingly undertake this task. Not a single oil bid was smooth sailing, for the sake of oil, Mexico changed its nationalist principles, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and others built a complex and difficult-functioning OPEC, the Americans beat Iraq, twice!
It is not easy for the country to get oil, and it is even more difficult for companies to get oil and profit at the same time.
Since the 50s, oil bidding has always been harder and harder. The latest technology, the dirtiest means, and the lowest bottom line, as if it were the label of the oil business. The international giants and their shareholders are also becoming more and more good at learning, more and more open, and more and more difficult to deal with, and the companies that do not do so are either eating old or being merged by other companies that are good at learning......
It won't be long before this method of compressing bids adopted by Sioux City becomes a textbook for every oil company to learn and be copied in due course.
From the perspective of oil companies, they are not afraid of complex plans and changing circumstances, they do not lack the courage to execute and the courage to bear losses, and their only goal is to succeed.
It can only be a success.
Failed oil companies, no matter what strategy they employ, are meaningless. Successful oil companies, regardless of their strategy, are full of value.
A single failure could bury a vast empire, while a single success could propel an ordinary oil company to the altar.
In this regard, Dr. Armand Hammer's Occidental Petroleum can be counted as a good example. Large oil companies that are large and unwilling to fail are often a footnote to the success of flexible oil companies like Dahua Industrial.
Zhang Chao exhaled softly under the huge pressure, said hello to Su Cheng, and went out without saying a word to prepare to go.
God knows how long the next meeting will take, and he doesn't have much time to waste.
Plan the plan, arrange manpower, supervise the work, and evaluate the effect...... None of this seems to be completed in a matter of days, and the next few days are reserved for companies to prepare bids.
……