Chapter 200: On the Price of Oil
In the small internal conference hall of the Commission for the Reform of the System, only more than 20 people sat in a circle, talking in low voices. Ding Zhipeng also turned his head and whispered to exchange views with others.
The Commission for the Reform of the System, which was born along with the reform of the system, was the most powerful institution in China at this time, and their research and investigation reports would not only improve the direction of the country's reform, but also determine the fate of many ministries and commissions. For example, the reform direction of "transforming government functions" has made the Ministry of Petroleum, the Ministry of Nuclear Industry, the Ministry of Electronics, and the Ministry of Coal disappear from the sequence of national ministries and commissions, but the Ministry of Railways and the Ministry of Textile Industry have been retained, and the Ministry of Water Resources and Materials have been newly established......
More than 20 people present have proud capital. All of them were department-level cadres who had undergone the institutional reform of the State Council in 1988, and Ding Zhipeng was also in this ranks, and he was directly promoted last year.
The organization of this report meeting is also a new initiative of Ding Zhipeng. While waiting, he whispered to his colleagues about the situation in Sioux City and Dahua Industrial. It should be said that while he helped and influenced Dahua Industrial, he was also helped and influenced by Dahua Industrial. Therefore, when he saw the newly built 7,500-ton offshore drilling platform of Dahua Industrial, he had a new understanding of the future direction.
Others don't have similar experiences, so they just talk about recent events in general terms, and wait for a pastime.
The clock above the conference room had just crossed ten o'clock when Sioux City pushed the door open.
Ding Zhipeng immediately stopped the discussion, turned around with a smile, and said, "Su Dong, you came too punctually, come and sit on my side, we are a round table." ”
Su Cheng saw that everyone really moved the chairs and sat in a circle, so he was polite for a while, sat next to Ding Zhipeng, and said with a smile: "I came at 9 o'clock, and the doorman didn't let me in until 9:50 when he read the time indicated on the letter of introduction." ”
Ding Zhipeng laughed and said: "This shows that the elites in our small conference room are the treasures of the country and are well protected." ”
"I have been known for a long time for the elites of the Commission for the Reform of the System. Sioux City said politely.
"You're not in our little conference room right now. Ding Zhipeng laughed.
Su Cheng said abruptly: "I'm just here to make a report." ”
As he spoke, he opened the folder. Making a presentation in front of the Commission's think tank is a challenge in itself. It's a bit like giving a presentation on the Senate floor in the U.S. that the end result has the potential to have a huge impact, both individually and collectively, and it's a rare opportunity.
Ding Zhipeng nodded slightly and said, "Okay, let's listen to the development outline of Dahua Industry." ”
Su Cheng relieved the tension with orderly movements, smiled, and said: "Today, what I mainly want to talk about is actually the construction and development of the world's marine equipment......
He looked around and said unhurriedly: "The world's industrial transfer is a matter that has been determined, the first transfer is shipbuilding, Japan, South Korea and Singapore have benefited from this, although China is one step behind, but we are on the front line of the transfer of the world's offshore equipment, if we can seize this opportunity, we can stand on the front line of the world's industrial transfer, and not wait until 10 years or 20 years later, waiting for Japan, South Korea and Singapore to transfer the industry to us......"
Only industrialized and strategic content can attract members of the Commission. Su Cheng only said two paragraphs, and he attracted everyone's attention, and some of the wandering eyes at the beginning turned around.
Su Cheng was very well prepared, glanced at the draft, and continued: "The offshore equipment industry is a hot industry in the past, now, or in the future, and it will get hotter and hotter...... Why?"
He smiled, his voice slowed, and said, "Because of the oil fever at sea." As I said earlier, the rise in the price of oil is a very clear thing. To develop oil at sea, you need to be well equipped, which is very different from the situation on land. On land, the environment in which people live is not particularly passive, and there are always some relatively simple equipment that can achieve relatively complex tasks, but in fact, it is becoming more and more difficult......"
"But at sea, in the deep sea, without very good equipment, nothing can be achieved at all. Su Cheng paused for a moment and continued: "People in the sea are like ants in the desert, and there is no amount of preparation to be made. Therefore, they can only keep investing and improving, and for oil companies, as long as the price of offshore oil does not exceed the price of oil, they have enough impulse to carry out high-risk, high-investment, and high-return industries. Why? Because the price of oil is going to go up......"
"I noticed that Su Dong seems to be a staunch supporter of the rise in oil prices?"
Due to the small number of participants, such presentations will be allowed to be interrupted. Su Cheng looked at everyone's eager expressions, smiled and nodded, "It seems that you want to hear the oil price report more." ”
"If the price of oil does rise, the value of offshore equipment is unquestionable. Ding Zhipeng answered Su Cheng's question.
Sioux nodded slightly. He still underestimated the level of these guys a little, for them, there is no problem with the rise in oil prices to launch the value of offshore construction, the only thing that people can't analyze is the price of oil.
In fact, apart from time-travelers like him, in the 90s, there were very few people who firmly believed that the price of oil would rise. On the one hand, there are historical reasons, and on the other hand, there are too many analyses of oil prices, so many factors that determine them, but the weights cannot be distinguished, and the market is more unpredictable. Many have even spawned the idea of conspiracy theories.
In fact, a general trend such as the price of oil should be the background of the conspiracy, not the direct result of the conspiracy. It's like the story of the Napoleonic Wars and Rothschild, Rothschild can use the results of the Napoleonic Wars, but if he directly decides the direction of the war, the cost will be too great, and it will be contrary to the low-cost, high-risk, and high-output nature of the conspiracy.
After a moment of silence, Su Cheng closed the report and said with a smile: "We talk about the price of oil." In fact, oil is a commodity after all, and its rise and fall are ultimately determined by supply. Any other factor can only determine the short term, not the long term. If we do not exert influence, as far as the current development of the oil industry is concerned, it will take about 50 years, or even more than 50 years, for us to finish extracting onshore oil. But the Arab countries will not let us run out of onshore oil. ”
Everyone laughed.
Su Cheng also smiled and said, "Therefore, what can determine the price of oil is ultimately two points." On the demand side, it is the degree of development of the world economy, and on the supply side, OPEC accounts for about two-thirds of the world's reserves and more than 40% of the sales volume. The world economy must be developing upward, but what about OPEC's supply? How they set prices is actually a science. At the same time, if they cut production too much, everyone will use alternative energy, and the more prices rise, the more alternative energy sources there are, which will eventually lead to a decrease in demand and the risk of unnecessary price fluctuations, so in my opinion, the key is, how can OPEC control this degree?"
Everyone stared with bated breath, and the only sound in the room was the rustle of pens. It's like the exam for the "Answer" lesson.
Sioux City is indeed giving them an "answer", a direct "answer". After only a few seconds of pause, he continued: "For OPEC, I think one of their policies will solve the problem of oil pricing perfectly. I'm not sure if they're saying it now, but I think they are going to say it anyway. ”
Sioux City did not prepare information on the price of oil in advance, so he briefly explained and said: "This method of pricing is actually described in detail in Marx's writings, about land rent. ”
As soon as he spoke of Marx, everyone was interested. Without him, any action of the Commission must find a basis in Marx's original works.
"Land and oil are very similar in terms of scarcity. Sioux City didn't say Marx again, but turned around and said, "I think the most important part of OPEC's pricing theory is that they point out that the price of oil is not determined by oil itself, but by alternative energy sources." Think about it, with the current price of alternative energy, is the trend of oil prices increasing or rising?"
"According to your theory, the price of offshore oil is actually a substitute for onshore oil?" someone asked quickly.
"That's right. Su Cheng nodded affirmatively and said, "OPEC can not only raise the price of oil with this method, but also kill all alternative energy sources." Because oil is in high demand, it will wrap around alternative energy sources and rise all the way until the technology arrives to completely replace fossil fuels. Therefore, the trend of rising oil prices will continue for 20 years, for 30 years......"
"Won't go down?"
"A short-term decline, perhaps, a long-term decline, is impossible. Su Cheng said in an instant: "Shallow sea oil, deep sea oil, polar oil,...... Guys, it's a scramble. In the past, we could skip our own oil and save it for future generations. Later, when everybody starts extracting oil on the high seas, in the Arctic and the Antarctic, we don't get involved, we can only watch the new colonies rise......"
Everyone is in their thirties and forties, and once the heated discussion begins, there is no intention of stopping.
Qi Meng sat opposite Su Cheng, listening to Su Cheng's words while watching his expressions. As a young cadre who has come up from the grassroots level, he has quite a lot of experience, so he has a better grasp of human nature, and he is inclined to consider the human factor in his work.
When he saw Sioux City and listened to Sioux City's analysis of oil and offshore engineering, his brain naturally made an analysis - this guy is a fighter with a strong spirit.
Such a fighter, no matter what level he is at, will fight strongly, constantly defeat the people around him, and keep rising. No wonder he gave up a life in a privileged ministry and chose the oil industry, no wonder he was able to fight his way through the oil barrels of the world's oil giants.
Qi Meng couldn't help but think that if Su Cheng was not born in an era of drastic change, but in an era of stability, his fighting spirit might make his life an unnecessary failure. Peking University is also a very good starting point, but unfortunately his background is average, otherwise he would have been able to play a big role in entering the System Reform Commission.
His brain was also thinking synchronously, and when everyone was satisfied with their speeches, he took the initiative to ask: "Su Cheng, listen to what you mean, do you want to persuade us to increase the investment in offshore oil equipment?"
"It's not enough to just give money, you have to have people and policies. ”
Ding Zhipeng smiled and said: "When we go down to investigate, we generally say that we want policies, people, and money, and you give us the other way around today." ”
The crowd around laughed.
Ding Zhipeng clapped his hands and said, "I heard that the COSCO Group, newly established by COSCO Shipping, seems to have engaged in a nationwide technical breakthrough, why is it not enough?"
"COSCO Group can be said to have solved the problem of 70% of the people, and we still want a policy. ”
"What policy?"
"We, Dahua Industrial, want to merge with a large state-owned enterprise. "Now is different, although there are various reforms such as the shareholding system reform, but the central government has always adhered to the principle of grasping the big and letting go of the small, and many large enterprises do not allow private capital to enter at all. In addition, the shareholding system reform and complete acquisition are also two different things, in fact, it is more like a capital owner, and a part of the shares are given to the operator, which is like an equity incentive.
The small conference room fell into a brief silence.
It was Qi Meng who broke the silence and said, "Which company do you want to merge?"
"Tianjin Petroleum Machinery General Factory. I've heard that they're already in trouble. "What Su Cheng said is the Jinshi General Factory where Du Lijun is located. They are one of the largest petroleum equipment enterprises in China, and many of the equipment they produce can be used at sea. Excessive expansion and good rejoicing are Du Lijun's character defects, especially in state-owned enterprises, can be big but not small, can not go up but not down the dead knot, so that the expanding Jinshi General Plant serious blood loss, although not to the level of bankruptcy, the previous good days have long been gone.
At present, the Jinshi General Plant has to borrow money from the bank every year. At the beginning, the loan was issued at the end of the year, and now it is the salary of the off-season loan, and those who are familiar with state-owned enterprises know that such factories have reached the verge of collapse.
After hearing and thinking about it, Ding Zhipeng said: "The level of the Jinshi General Factory is very high, we can't answer, we will report to the top." ”
"I'm not in a hurry, take my time. Su Cheng smiled and said, "I merged with the Jinshi General Plant to develop the third generation of offshore drilling platforms. I can only say that if I give me the Jinshi General Plant, I will be able to build China's own third-generation and fourth-generation offshore drilling platforms, and when the time comes, we will extract the oil from the South China Sea by ourselves, without looking at the eyes of foreigners!"
"You have to be mentally prepared, even if the above agrees, the Jinshi General Factory is not cheap, and the shareholding ratio is difficult to say. ”
"The state can keep 10% or 20%, and I should pay double taxes. No more, I don't want it, I make one myself. Sioux spoke half-jokingly.
"I made a note of it. Although Ding Zhipeng feels fresh, he feels fresh and good. They themselves are engaged in structural reform, and the local cadres have concerns about what kind of factories can be merged and what kind of factories cannot be handled, but they only regard them as experiments.