Professor Dai agreed, looked down at the small piece of paper, and briefly introduced: "Su Dong believes that the United States is very well prepared for war and diplomacy, and will take various means to avoid the third oil crisis, so the oil price before the war will fall. I believe that in the early stages of the war, the United States will have a big advantage, but as the ground war expands, the oil fields of Saudi Arabia, Iran and other countries will be in danger. In particular, oil pipelines, oil tankers, and high-production oil wells are likely to be targeted and the outcome is unpredictable. ”

Su Zhenguo said "um" and looked at Su Cheng, as if he was going to preside over the debate.

With so many senior cadres, it is difficult for Su Cheng to meet any of them on weekdays, and he doesn't want to offend them all, so he smiled cooperatively and said, "I don't know much about the war, but I want to say a little." The production capacity of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela and other countries is very large, and it has not been able to play due to OPEC's production restrictions in the past. Once the war starts, they don't have to wait for it to start, they are already overproducing crude oil, and the extra 5 million barrels per day can fully compensate for the losses of Iraq and Kuwait. So, on the supply and demand side, there will not be a shortage of oil, and if the bad situation that Professor Dai said does not happen, is it possible that the direction of oil prices will go down?"

As a policy researcher, Professor Dai admits that Su Cheng's argument has a point, but it is also too contrary to common sense.

There is a war in the Middle East, and the price of oil is not rising?

Are you playing around?

But if crude oil production does not decrease and the scope of the war does not expand, what reason is there for oil prices to rise?

The scholars of the Policy Research Office were silent in their thoughts, and the leaders who were cautious in their words and deeds naturally did not speak. However, Wang Lizhen deliberately made trouble, and said: "I don't know how to fight, but the situation you said can be done in one or two days." One month and two months. After three months and five months, has the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries become an ornament? They always have to re-limit production, and oil prices will rise. It's good for them, isn't it?"

Wang Lizhen is the daughter of the CEO of Changning Infrastructure. After Changning Infrastructure was merged by COSCO Shipping, Wang Lianjun took up an idle post and teased flowers and grass every day. Although the strength of the mother's family is weak. But Wang Lizhen's background in the family of the official eunuch has not disappeared, and she can also say that the domestic and international policy situation is stronger than that of ordinary officials.

Among the group of women in the Su family, she is one of the few who hold leadership positions. Therefore, this remark is also very powerful.

To the uninitiated, it looks like it.

Sioux City just gave a fluttering sentence: "Low oil prices are what Saudi Arabia and the UAE want." ”

"The seller is still too expensive?" Wang Lizhen smiled.

But she soon discovered that none of the big and small pedants at the Policy Research Center were smiling.

Professor Dai seemed to wake up and coughed. "Within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE are one faction. They have high oil reserves and a small population. The geographical environment is poor, and the ability to attract foreign investment is weak. Therefore, they pursue a low oil price policy in order to curb the development of alternative energy sources in order to sell the huge oil resources as soon as possible. Countries such as Iran, Libya and Iraq, with relatively small oil reserves, large populations, good geographical location and environment, want to sell oil at the highest possible price to obtain the funds needed for economic construction. In this, $30 is a threshold, and alternative energy sources such as ethanol need more than $30 per barrel of oil to be profitable......"

As he spoke, Professor Dai's thinking became clearer, and he said, "Does Su Dong think that apart from the war itself, there are no other factors that will affect the price of oil?"

Needless to answer, he continued: "Iraq's pretext for invading Kuwait was that Kuwait had a large amount of crude oil production, which caused oil prices to plummet. The current situation is that Saudi Arabia and other countries have attracted the United States, and if they win, OPEC will definitely be under the control of countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and countries such as Iraq and Iran are expected to abandon their high oil price policies...... So, if the immediate consequences of the war weren't severe, oil prices would recover quickly, wouldn't they?"

Where did Su Cheng think so much, and smiled: "Almost." I think that fighting a war is a war, and oil production is oil production. In a country like Saudi Arabia, which can blow out with a single needle, the oil production system is still very strong. The most vulnerable areas are the lines of communication, but Iraq cannot do so for a long time. ”

With Professor Dai's foreshadowing, Su Cheng's mind was immediately elevated. The relaxed state has been praised by everyone, not every young man in his 20s can be honored and disgraced, and the "Jinluan Palace" has a clear idea.

Wang Lizhen was speechless. Zhu Enbo, Director Huang and others also fell into deep thought.

They are not afraid of the collapse of oil prices at this moment, after all, what Su Cheng and Professor Dai described is also a medium- and long-term judgment. In their opinion, the question now is the choice of the profit point, when and at what price to close the position......

Zhang Chao nodded his head at Su Cheng.

Su Cheng glanced at the screen from a distance and nodded back.

Su Zhenguo noticed this and said, "If you have something to do, just get busy, don't worry about us." ”

"They can handle it well, just follow the established plan. "Su Cheng doesn't care about the Su family, but he can't ignore so many senior cadres. Dahua Industrial still has to mix in China, although there is no need to slap the horse, but it is also not possible to put the label of "maverick" and "out of place" on the door number of Dahua Industrial.

Su Zhenguo invited so many people to come just to see Su Cheng, so he naturally asked, "What is your established plan?"

"Every 10 minutes or so, buy 1 million barrels of empty orders. Sioux City then explained, "I have $200 million in funding, and the full position is $2 billion. The current position is only more than 300 million, which is still very empty. Buy an order every 10 minutes and digest it just right. Moreover, oil prices are slowly climbing, and delaying purchases is also more conducive to leveling out costs. ”

Su Dongyuan said strangely: "You see that the price of oil is rising, and you are still buying it?"

From the late 80s to the early 90s, it can be regarded as the first year of China's capital. Zhengzhou's grain futures trading market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, and joint-stock banks and other new things have all appeared in this short period of three or five years. At this time, the leader of the senior position has a certain understanding of this. During the Gulf crisis, many people even made up for it.

Therefore, everyone present understands the basic knowledge of the futures market, and Duan Yuanguang, Cao Jiyuan and others whispered in private.

Sioux City had to explain: "I think it's going to fall soon." Once the negative news appears, the market is likely to be smashed by a huge number of short orders, so it is necessary to make a move in advance. ”

"Then why do you want to buy one by one?" This time it was Director Mao who was questioned, and his status as a National Development and Reform Commission completely made up for the small gap in rank.

Su Cheng laughed twice and said, "I don't know when the inflection point of oil prices will appear." If it keeps going up, there is no cash in hand and the position will be liquidated. Besides, what if I'm wrong? ”

He was telling the truth. Before the Gulf War, he only had a general impression of the trend of oil prices, about $32, which was inferred from other data, God knows how much the right can be right, he originally thought that the right was only $33. However, the reality is that the price of oil on the London Exchange exceeded $33, which was understandable and unexpected.

However, if all the funds are pressed up, if the thief is not reasonable, the accident will make people vomit blood.

His thoughts are unknown to others, but Su Cheng couldn't help but laugh when he came to such a sentence in the gap of full confidence.

Su Zhenguo smiled: "If you can't be sure, don't invest so much." ”

Su Cheng said as a matter of course: "Seventy or eighty percent sure, if you don't dare to press it all, then you shouldn't be on the gambling table!"

In a word, the whispering silenced. The Su generals nodded one after another, not because of how good Su Cheng said, but because of their compatible personalities. The members of the Soviet faction, led by Su Zhenguo, have always been tough factions who dare to fight and fight, and naturally like Su Cheng's bold, tenacious, tenacious and clever character.

After a while, Zhang Chao signaled to Su Cheng again.

Sioux City still made a gesture of looking at his watch, and then nodded.

After Zhang Chao confirmed, he broke down the task. Traders from UOB's Strategic Division pick up the phone and dial London, and the traders in the City of London over there complete the real buying process.

Unlike the new century, the futures exchange in 1991 still had a certain delay lag in the process from people to data

It takes about half a minute for the trader to make a successful gesture.

One of Dahua's own recorders, after reconfirming, drew a small red bar on the blackboard to make a record. In addition, the front is exactly a "positive" word, which represents the 5 million barrels of crude oil purchased in the later period.

These crude oils were purchased during a period of slow rise in oil prices.

At the same time, the staff of the National Reserve Material Adjustment Center also slowly ate more orders at the request of Zhu Enbo. Although there is a difference in quantity, in essence, Dahua Industrial and the State Reserve Material Adjustment Center are actually in a state of VAM.

Those who know will not pierce this layer of window skin, and those who do not know still do not know.

No one dares to say that they have chosen the right side until there is a result. Those who don't choose sides will also try to set themselves aside.

In another 10 minutes, oil prices fluctuated several times and climbed past the small mark of $33.5. Many let out soft cheers.

Su Zhenguo and the others looked at Su Cheng and just saw him nodding again.

Another red line, lightly drawn on the blackboard.

And then another, and another.

But the price of oil is still drilling upwards little by little, little by little.

As if they were going to fight against it. (To be continued)