"The spread between London and New York is currently floating between 80 cents and 120 cents, and our contracts are roughly within that range. Qi Xiao returned his latest achievements at a flying speed.

"That's an average of $1?"

"It's higher than that, about $1.1 look. The spread is more complicated, and it takes a lot of time to short sell and short the crude oil contracts between London and New York, and in addition, it takes a lot of money......"

"Raise the leverage. ”

"Because it's a spread contract, we've put the leverage 100 times. ”

"The leverage of the contract for difference, 1000 times doesn't matter. Sioux City said casually.

"1000 times...... This one...... In fact, 100 times the leverage is already a lot, when I came over, it was a margin of 200 million US dollars, and the spread widened by 10 cents, there were, almost 100 million US dollars in profit, put it at 1000 times...... "Qi Xiao didn't know what to say, although he accepted a lot of advanced experience, but the Chinese in the 90s still tended to be conservative in his understanding of risk, and it was enough to use $100 million to pry up $10 billion, and it was a bit beyond his psychological bottom line to pry up $100 billion.

Even if he knew that there was a 1,000 times spread leverage, Qi Xiao still wouldn't make such a decision.

Sioux City is completely different, although he has not received much financial guidance, but in the later oil finance activities, CFDs, like hedging, are basically a compulsory course in oil finance. Any company involved in importing and exporting crude oil needs to consider the issue of crude oil spreads. Don't look at the current London and New York crude oil price difference is just over $1. But in the years when crude oil is tens of dollars, the spread between London and New York often reaches more than a dozen dollars. CFDs have also become an important indicator because of the global flow of crude oil, and many financial institutions may not do crude oil futures, but will do CFDs.

In addition to crude oil spreads, crack spreads and other words, which are almost all questions that will be asked in the exam, Sioux City will not be suspicious of 100 times or 1000 times leverage, even if it is based on experience.

But. In the years when crude oil CFDs were not popular, ordinary traders did not dare to use such terrifying leverage, after all, although such CFDs are unassailable in theory, it still takes time to prove how they really perform. A bank would not blindly bet hundreds or even thousands of times of money for millions of dollars in profits. If something goes wrong, that's the amount of money that could put a bank out of business.

Soros's quantum fund is famous for its courage to use ultra-high leverage and hedging methods such as CFDs to mitigate risk, and the mathematical model of long-term capital management firms, which once topped Wall Street. It can also use tens of millions of dollars of capital to leverage the market of hundreds of billions of dollars.

However, these are a little too high-end for the financial world of '94. CFDs appeared on the market as early as the 70s, but not until after 2000. It was slowly recognized by large financial institutions, and Qi Xiao had to find some small and medium-sized financial companies who were willing to do this transaction. In this way, he appeared to be more cautious.

Su Cheng recognized Qi Xiao's concerns, this decision should be made by him, he smiled reassuringly, and asked in a soothing voice: "What does the other party think?

Qi Xiao looked down at his feet and said, "They have a suggestion to use a higher leverage. ”

"How much?"

"300 times to 500 times. Qi Xiao wiped his forehead, there was no sweat, but he felt that it was time for him to sweat.

"Then do as they say. It was difficult for Su Cheng to guess how much the CFD could make, and he finally took prudent measures, although this was beyond Qi Xiao's ability to bear.

"Okay, in this case, the size of our spread contract will be 60 billion to 100 billion US dollars, and for every 10 cents of the price difference between the two places, there will be a profit of 300 million to 600 million US dollars, and if the price difference expands to 1 US dollar, it will be 3 billion to 6 billion US dollars...... " Qi Xiao said, began to touch his forehead again, and said softly: "If the price difference narrows, we will lose so much money." ”

Whether it is 3 billion US dollars or 6 billion US dollars, it is difficult for Dahua Industrial to bear now, they have the largest shares in the pan-Asian fund, once the price difference narrows more, the best result also means that Dahua Industrial has come in vain, and the bad situation, Dahua Industrial may have to lose out.

Qi Xiao's reminder also made Su Cheng aware of the huge risk.

He nodded slowly, slowly, and said: "The average price difference of the contract we bought is 1.1 US dollars, and I think about it, the crude oil price difference between New York and London cannot be reduced to zero, so don't have any burden, and implement the rest of the contract well." ”

"Okay. Qi Xiao can only choose peace of mind. Indeed, the price of crude oil in New York and London can go up and down, but there is little chance of narrowing the spread to zero. Maybe at some point, the price will be the same, but most of the time, there will always be a price difference between the two.

Especially in such a range of sharp price movements, there are too few factors to narrow the spread between the two. Spot traders don't travel all the way from London to refineries in North America, and in the same way, spot dealers in the U.S. can't choose a supplier in London because of a price difference of a few tens of cents, and the same is true for crude oil producers, who have long ago decided which delivery warehouse to send their crude to, and unless the spread is large enough to make a profit, it is difficult to motivate them to change that decision.

However, the world is unpredictable, especially this kind of gambling game, the bankrupt are all dead on the 13 "big" in a row, you can find the boss in the casino, and who to reason with the crude oil gambling transaction.

Su Cheng didn't dare to say with certainty that the crude oil spread had narrowed, but this part of the information was deduced by him based on what he knew.

Before making the inference, Sioux City thought a lot and prepared a lot. But now that I think about it again, I feel that I am not prepared. Lack of consideration, just like a student who is about to go to the examination room, always has the anxiety of not being able to explain clearly.

"Send me all today's newspapers. The big newspapers, as well as the evening newspapers, the new arrivals were delivered immediately. Su Cheng put his worries behind him, and after Qi Xiao went out, he gave Yang Ming a warning.

At this time. It was 5:30 p.m.

There are still 2 hours before the end of manual outcry and 5 hours before the end of electronic outcry, if it is a normal day, oil prices should be ready to recover slowly, because there are many customers who are not willing to hold contracts overnight, they would rather earn a little less, and will close their positions before the end of each day's trading. Then re-choose the route after the start of tomorrow's trading day, as will some profitable and cautious clients.

Only Su Cheng regarded this day as longer than a week, or rather, he actually didn't want to stay overnight, so as not to have anything uncontrollable.

Yang Ming agreed. Ask: "Are all the newspapers, or are they financial?"

"Finance and economics are the mainstay, and the Daily Telegraph also needs to do so, so the Sun doesn't need to send it. "The Daily Telegraph is the most serious newspaper in Britain in circulation, and The Sun is the most pornographic newspaper in England. It is also the largest circulation newspaper in the UK. Su Cheng said and looked at his watch again, and said, "The time difference between London and Tokyo is nine hours, right? See what they have to say, translate the title first. ”

"Are you waiting for the latest news?"

"Hmm. ”

"The Daily Telegraph seems to have an electronic newspaper, which is said to have real-time news, so I went and asked. ”

"Wait. Su Cheng widened his eyes and asked, "What is an electronic newspaper?"

"It's like it's called the World Wide Web, and you can see it on your computer, with the Daily Telegraph headlines on the front page every day, as well as the latest news. Yang Ming is in charge of Su Cheng's office, on the one hand, he is doing the work of uploading and disseminating, and on the other hand, he is collecting information, he knows that Su Cheng is very interested in computer technology, so he deliberately understands this information.

Su Cheng fell into a deep nostalgia, for later generations of college students, life without the Internet is unthinkable, and he was also obsessed with the Internet at first. I originally thought that it would be a few years before I could use Kitten to watch some outdated news on the Internet, but I didn't expect that the British media was so advanced, and it was still biased towards the Daily Telegraph of the Conservative Party.

"Su Dong?"

Sioux City woke up like a dream: "Find someone, let me take a look at this website." ”

After a while, a staff member came up to install and debug the computer for Sioux City.

On the spherical 15-inch monitor, the website of the Daily Telegraph flashed out slowly, using the IBM staff in the Middle Ages, or the IT staff of the London International Petroleum Exchange, while operating the keyboard, while explaining to Sioux City in detail: "We are now using IBM's OS/ 2 system, the software you see is IBM's browser, in addition to the support of HTML3, the most powerful thing is to integrate email and news, as long as a few small steps, you can see the daily telegraph website you want. ”

"Integrating email and news functions?is so powerful?" Su Cheng looked at the IT man in front of him with pathetic eyes, completely untouched by his excitement.

The IT man smiled, looked at Su Cheng with pitiful eyes, and thought proudly: He should faint now, I guess he doesn't even know what a browser is.

Sure enough, Su Cheng said in English: "You come and help me operate, I want to watch today's news." ”

Sioux City was completely indifferent to the clunky and sluggish IBM computer.

The IT man happily operated the computer and felt the pulse of technology.

"Let me know if there's any new news. "Sioux City has read today's new news, and there is nothing worth paying attention to.

The IT man naturally said: "Whenever you want to see new information, you click this button to refresh the ......"

"You can do it, and after a while, I'll have new news to me. Su Cheng pushed away his chair and went to sit on the couch and read the newspaper.

The IT man had to sit stupidly and refresh the page.

I don't know how long later, a piece of news popped up.

"There's new news. The IT man's voice was muffled, as if he was accompanying his wife shopping.

"What content. "Sioux City is still scanning the newspapers.

"Azerbaijan has announced that it will not reduce production...... Balabala...... Kazakhstan will continue to build its own oil fields...... OPEC will not be able to reach an agreement on production cuts in the short term, and the crisis of oversupply in the crude oil market will further ferment......"

"Show me. Sioux bounced off the couch and flew to the 15-inch spherical monitor.

Today's website is even more rudimentary than the blogs and microblogs of later generations, but the text is very clear.

Sure enough, it was Daily Telegraph-style news.

Su Cheng swept over at a glance, saw half of it, grabbed the phone, and said in a deep voice: "Prepare Plan S, contact Aliyev, and confirm the negative news, and implement it immediately." ”

If Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan continue to increase production and OPEC cannot come up with a proper plan, then no matter how the market interprets it, a short-term crude oil surplus will form.

The end of the continued decline of crude oil will be irreversible.

And with OPEC's usual efficiency, the time required to give a plan is calculated in at least weeks.

Convincing the oil ministers of 12 countries, and convincing the leaders of 12 countries, is difficult to draw quick conclusions, even in the most urgent cases.

……