Chapter 346: New Proposal
Although the 3-inch and 5-micron process technology used in the wafer fab project of Deepsea Microelectronics, the total cost of the fab is as high as 95 million US dollars, including the cost of technology transfer. Such a huge investment, if placed in the United States, this money is enough to build 1.5 state-of-the-art fabs with the same scale of 5-inch and 1.5-micron process technology!
Although it has been slaughtered, the Chinese side is not without gains, because this at least represents the 5-micron process technology, which has been fully opened to China! Previously, due to the strict restrictions imposed on China by the Batumi organization, all Western member states did not dare to transfer advanced technology to China.
But since the United States, the eldest brother, who took the lead, made an exception first, the other younger brothers have a lot less concerns. Japanese companies were the first to react, and it is said that not long ago, NEC had sent greetings to the relevant Chinese authorities through some channels. They are willing to build another wafer fab of the same scale as deep-sea microelectronics for China at a price of $75 million.
It's a pity that the Ministry of Electronics and Industry is shy in its pockets and simply can't come up with such a huge amount of foreign exchange. The China of the 80s was not the China with foreign exchange reserves of up to $4 trillion 30 years later, and it had to worry about how to maintain its value all the time.
In 1984, China's foreign exchange balance was only a measly $8.9 billion, and every penny of foreign exchange had to be spent. Because of this, it is estimated that it will be difficult to apply for a large amount of foreign exchange for continuous investment in the future for a period of time.
After all, there are many places where all walks of life need to use foreign exchange, and the central leaders also need to have a bowl of water. Like Huhaibao-Steel, it has been criticized countless times for using too much foreign exchange. But the projects that can still be lucky to survive are too rare.
But this is almost doomed, and it will be difficult for deep-sea microelectronics to do much in the future. The semiconductor industry is an industry that throws money. Throwing money at it may not stand out from the competition, but if you don't spend money, you will definitely be eliminated quickly!
Of course. In fact, in the planning of the Ministry of Electronics and Industry, from the very beginning, it did not think of relying on imports forever. Rather, it is hoped that through the combination of foreign introduction and independent research and development, starting from the localization of upstream semiconductor manufacturing equipment, we can form our own industrial base as much as possible, so as to break the embarrassing situation of being controlled by others.
The US Government is wary of China, and China is not full of vigilance against the Americans. The only reason why the two sides are getting closer and closer now is that they have a common enemy, the Soviet-United Nations. However, the international political situation is changing rapidly, and there is no real friendship between countries, and today they are friends. Tomorrow may be the opponent!
But in Li Xuan's view, although the idea of the Ministry of Electronics Industry is good, it is just empty talk. When integrated circuits develop to the stage of large-scale or even ultra-large-scale, the technical difficulty begins to increase exponentially.
In the previous period of small- and medium-scale integrated circuits, China could barely keep up with the pace of the world, but in the era of large-scale integrated circuits, even if China did not encounter a decade of turmoil, it would inevitably open a gap with the world's advanced level.
Because this industry has undergone earth-shaking changes, the manufacturing equipment of large-scale integrated circuits tests the overall scientific and technological and industrial accumulation of a country. in another time and space. South Korea's Samsung and Taiwan's wafer foundry have a pivotal position in the global semiconductor market.
But these two regions have never done much in semiconductor manufacturing equipment. Because equipment manufacturing is far more difficult than chip production, only a few companies in the United States, Japan and Europe can compete in this field in later generations. And these three regions happen to be the most economically and technologically advanced places in the world.
China's backwardness at this stage. It is backward in all directions. Even if it takes China 30 years to catch up in terms of GDP. But in high-tech fields such as semiconductors and biopharmaceuticals, it wants to shake the technological monopoly of foreign giant companies. There is still a long way to go!
"The vigorous development of any industry needs to have a strong consumer market as the foundation! I think China's TV industry. It is entering a golden period of development. Because with the development of the domestic economy, the general public's desire to improve their lives has begun to become strong. And the TV can bring important spiritual food to thousands of households!
However, the domestic demand for the semiconductor industry is still very small. Taking the wafer factory of deep-sea microelectronics as an example, its design capacity is 250,000 wafers per year, and the actual chips cut out every year may reach 100 million! According to the statistics of relevant experts of the Ministry of Electronics and Industry, this production capacity can meet the domestic demand in the next five years!
Although I am skeptical of this judgment, the capacity of the domestic semiconductor market is indeed pitifully small compared with that of Europe and the United States, because the Eastern Group alone purchases a total of several hundred million processors and memories every year.
In the developed countries of Western Europe and the United States, game consoles and personal computers have already begun to enter thousands of households, which is also the basis for the rapid development of Dongfang Electronics Company in the past few years. In China, computers are still only used in large units and scientific research institutes, and the game industry has not yet sprouted.
Even in the booming TV industry in China, most domestic TVs are designed without considering the use of infrared remote controls. Instead, it requires the user to turn the knob directly on the TV through guò to turn the machine on and off, adjust the console and other operations.
In order to facilitate the use of users, foreign TV manufacturers have long generally used infrared remote control, and there is a digital chip for encoding and decoding in the remote control. In foreign countries, semiconductor chips have already begun to integrate into people's daily life unconsciously. The huge demand stimulus is the real reason for the rapid development of the global semiconductor industry!"
Li Xuan's meaning is very clear, now China has neither upstream technology background, nor downstream consumer market support, the country is not yet able to continue to invest on a large scale, and it is simply unrealistic to make a rapid breakthrough in the field of semiconductors!
Li Xuan paused, and continued: "The entire production process of integrated circuits can be roughly divided into three links, namely wafer preparation in the early stage, chip etching in the middle stage, and packaging and testing in the later stage!"
The packaging and testing process in the later stage is relatively the lowest in technology, and it also requires the most intensive human resources! The construction of a state-of-the-art chip packaging and testing plant is about 10 million US dollars!
In fact, the relevant departments can start from the chip test factory with low technical difficulty to accumulate experience first. Compared with core equipment such as lithography machines, the U.S. government is much less sensitive to the export of chip packaging and testing equipment!
You must know that in Europe and the United States and other countries, the higher the education, the higher the salary, the chip packaging and testing factory recruits at least college graduates, and the starting salary is usually not less than 20,000 US dollars. This is equivalent to the salary of 40 college graduates in the country!
In this way, the foreign exchange investment in the early stage can be gradually recovered, and then more funds can be accumulated to invest in subsequent independent research and development and technological upgrading!
Elder Deng hoped that Li Xuan would talk about his views on the high-tech field, and Li Xuan really poured out his heart and lungs and explained his views on the development of the semiconductor industry in China! In any case, he is a Chinese, and deep down he naturally hopes that the motherland can become truly strong!
Maybe even Deng Lao didn't expect Li Xuan to say so much in one breath! The wafer factory of Shenhai Microelectronics was introduced with the help of the Oriental Group, but Li Xuan is now pouring cold water! If you change to an ordinary person, you will naturally be very dissatisfied, and you will still talk about the wind and cold words after you have earned the money!
But Deng Lao obviously has enough mind to listen to the words of loyalty. When Li Xuan just started to speak at length, he motioned to the secretary next to him to record Li Xuan's speech throughout the process. Deng Lao may not agree with Li Xuan's point of view all at once, but he can find someone to carry out a special investigation!
Taking advantage of the opportunity of the Western world to open its doors to itself in the 80s, China has introduced a number of projects. Some projects have indeed contributed to the advancement of domestic technology, but some have had significant side effects.
In the early 80s, the relevant departments reached an agreement with the McDonnell Douglas Company of the United States, hoping to assemble the McDonnell Douglas aircraft first, and then get the technology transfer from the United States, and finally realize the localization of large aircraft.
For this reason, the Y-10 project, which had already produced three prototypes and had begun to enter the test flight stage, was forced to dismount because it could not receive follow-up financial support! However, in the early 90s, Sino-US relations had cooled, and McDonnell Douglas was acquired by Boeing, and Boeing directly rejected the follow-up agreement that McDonnell Douglas had verbally promised.
The wafer fab project of deep-sea microelectronics will also inevitably lead to the discontinuation of many other projects in the domestic electronics industry! Because the state has a limit on the annual budget allocated to each person.
The total investment of the wafer fab project of Deep-sea Microelectronics is close to 100 million US dollars, although most of it is a special quota approved by the state, but it will still occupy a lot of funds from the Ministry of Electronics and Industry. The Ministry of Electronics Industry has invested more money in deep-sea microelectronics, which means that other subordinate enterprises have received less funds!
As for the planning of the Ministry of Electronics and Industry, the so-called external introduction and independent research and development go hand in hand, in fact, it is an empty word. Because with China's economic strength in the eighties, it is simply impossible to have so much money to support a two-front battle!
Of course, Li Xuan's purpose tonight is not to talk freely about the pros and cons of China's development of high-tech industries. The reason why he said so much just now was also to draw out his own views below!
"Truly first-class technology cannot be introduced, and even for hardcore allies such as Europe and Japan, the United States still has many technologies that it is unwilling to share! A country that is truly strong still needs to rely on independent research and development!
However, after analyzing the various economic figures in China in recent years, Dongfang Electronics found a very unoptimistic problem! That is, the ratio of China's funds for scientific and technological research and development to the gross national product has been declining for several consecutive years!
Li Xuan suddenly said very sternly, "This may be because the overall situation of the country is still relatively difficult, and the government has limited funds on hand, so it must be prioritized for other more important matters related to the national economy and people's livelihood!"
But in the long run, it will inevitably damage China's overall competitiveness! Therefore, I have a mention here, or an experiment!" (to be continued......