Chapter 566: Bearish RB Economy
In fact, as a country with a population of 100 million, Japan has achieved a GDP close to 70% of that of the United States, and its per capita productivity has surpassed that of the United States for a time, which is quite successful. It is a pity that Japan's political economy is not in its own hands, and on the surface, Japan pretends that it is sovereign. However, in fact, many aspects are manipulated by the United States behind the scenes, and once Japan's performance exceeds the expectations of the United States, then the United States will quickly take some measures to cut off Japan's economic interests and make up for the deficit of the United States itself.
Theoretically, if the United States itself is confident enough to grow faster and better than its so-called allies, then it will naturally not do things that keep sticking knives in its allies.
But the problem is, according to America's own economists, that in fact, American production efficiency has stagnated in the 70s. Especially for the working class, the average wage and treatment in the United States is stagnating, and prices are rising. At the same time, the number of people on the rich list is increasing every year, which means that America's once proud, olive-shaped middle-class society is gradually becoming similar to the society of the extremely rich minority and the extremely poor majority in South America. The number of the middle class, which is the mainstay, continues to decrease and shrink, and the former middle class continues to become poor.
In essence, the U.S. economy and competitiveness began to grow at a low rate, and military spending, spending, and so on did not shrink, but grew out of control. In this way, the main thing is to maintain US hegemony by cutting off the interests of the country's middle class and the interests of the "allies" who are best bullied.
In essence, for the overlord, many allies, if their strength is not enough to bargain with the overlord, then there are actually fat sheep with numbered order. According to the degree of easy bullying of the fat sheep and the degree of fat and water of the fat sheep, it is decided to cut the fat sheep.
It is precisely for this reason that many situations in the United States are a bit funny, while telling some allies, we will work together to deal with such and such an enemy. Subsequently, the enemy fell, and the United States began to cut its allies with knives again. In essence, for a country like the United States, there are no real allies. There are only the kind of allies who pay protection money to the United States, and the kind of enemies who can challenge the United States if they don't pay protection money. The enemy is also based on the strength and weakness, and the enemy who is too strong can only hope that he will die and collapse, anyway, the United States is not stupid to go to the end to fight with a strong enemy, and only fight some small countries with a huge difference in strength from the United States.
"In addition, there is also a huge bubble problem in your country's own economy, the rapid appreciation of the yen, and then the influx of international hot money to speculate in real estate, stocks, and foreign exchange. There are also your own enterprises, many of which no longer take their main business seriously, but make profits by buying and selling shares of other companies, or by increasing the price of real estate. The profitability of many companies is even lower than it was 85 years ago...... A large number of companies in Japan are constantly gaining financial leverage, and ordinary people are also moving from saving money to borrowing money to buy houses and investing in stocks. Some people joke that the value of real estate in Tokyo can buy the United States. Well, this analogy is not very scientific, and it compares the value of real estate in Tokyo with the GDP of the United States! But it also reflects a problem on the side: the inflation of the asset bubble is terrible! Japan's output has risen at least tenfold compared with 10 years ago! From the original underestimation, it has become a terrible bubble! Many companies have a large number of profits that have increased year after year, not even the company's own products are profitable, but a lot of loss-making companies, selling a small piece of land and office buildings, not only turning losses into profits financially, but also creating the illusion of soaring profits.
Lin Qi's speech also took a lot of thought, and he put his heart to the Japanese in this way, mainly to vaccinate the country. In recent years, the Japanese economy has been admired in China. Even in the 90s, there were still a bunch of economists in China, blindly learning the Japanese model.
Of course, there are some models in Japan that are worth emulating, such as industrialization and business management. However, the ostensibly rational Japanese entrepreneurs showed crazy irrationality in this era, and the madness of the whole people's economic speculation was almost as extreme as the militarism of the Second World War.
Therefore, Lin Qi can't see this kind of unilateral worship of so-and-so economic myths.
Singing praises is unacceptable, pouring cold water is the anti-ear advice!
"Mr. Hayashi, what is the basis for what you are saying this? Now that Japan is thriving and has a good momentum of development, we cannot just use an old Chinese proverb to sing about the decline of the Japanese economy. ”
An economics professor stood up, disgruntled.
He did not agree with Lin Qi's statement, even if Lin Qi named the relationship between Japan and the United States is not as close as it seems. The United States is constantly harvesting Japan, but the Japanese can't believe it, or pretend to be confused!
They just want to be cut by the United States, and at the same time develop to catch up with the United States, surpass the United States economically, and then use economic interests to break through the constraints of the United States and restore a normal country.
The idea......
Let's just fool Japan itself!
In other words, if any country is stationed in an economically developed country, the constitution and many legal provisions of this country are drafted after being recognized by the emperor who is stationed in the country. So, will this imperial country give up such huge interests by itself?
No way!
It is almost impossible for Japan to break free from the control of the United States and try to be gentle. Unless, in the event of a change of world hegemony and the United States is too busy to take care of itself, will it have the opportunity to let such a big fat sheep as Japan take the opportunity to break away from the control of the United States.
"Of course, I personally hope that your country will prosper, and there is a lot of investment in new businesses in Japan, covering a wide range of fields, and if the Japanese economy suffers, new businesses will also suffer. However, at this stage, I need to emphasize that we will make some investment adjustments in Japan, and we will reduce our holdings of real estate and financial assets. It is not a divestment, but an adjustment to other investment projects. ”
Lin Qi's closing remarks caused a slight commotion, this is not a joke, the new business has already made a lot of achievements in Japan, at this time it was announced that it would sell Japan's real estate and financial assets, is it that Japan's financial and real estate bubble really fell over there?
The people who were originally a little resistant quieted down, Lin Qi obviously didn't come to speak with emotion, maybe he really noticed that something was wrong.
Everyone here is a little blindsided, and new entrepreneurs need to adjust financial and real estate projects, which is definitely a strong weather vane.
"Mr. Hayashi, do you really think that the Japanese economy has reached its peak and is about to start going downhill. Or is it the problems of real estate and financial bubbles that will cause the Japanese economy to decline?"
Some Japanese entrepreneurs began to ask.
They still don't believe that they have been immersed in the market for many years, and they think that they are leaders in industry and investment, and according to their judgment, even if the price of real estate and finance in Japan is a little more expensive, as long as the economy maintains growth, this bubble will be filled sooner or later. It's like in the 70s, Japan's financial market was seen as having a huge bubble, but in the 80s, it proved that this fear was right, and the growth of the economy made the Japanese stock market rise more than tenfold!
Therefore, many people's opinions began to be based on - continuous growth, to defuse the bubble!
But they dare not think about whether the economy will no longer grow, what about a decade, twenty, Chinese New Year's Eve, and thirty years? At its peak, the economy was 50 times that of China. Later, it was gradually caught up by China, and then the economy was only one-third of China's, and even continued to widen the gap!
That's the difference between growth and stagnation......
Two economies, one with more than 30 years of growth and the other with more than 30 years of stagnation, will have this dramatic situation of catching up and surpassing, and the strength and weakness reversing each other.
It is precisely for this reason that the Japanese economy has a lot of reference significance - stagnation! It is really relevant to show you that the economy can still have this kind of trend!
After more than 30 years of stagnation, the Japanese people's mental outlook has changed dramatically.
The Japanese in the 80s were extravagant, and they believed that no matter how much they consumed, they could earn it back. However, decades later, the Japanese are budget-conscious, saving money to the extreme, and they don't consume if they can. The former tyrant Japanese have become Buddhist consumers and low-carbon consumers.
For example, consumers in the 80s bought houses and cars, and nightclubs and taverns were drunk with money. Later consumers still buy a mobile phone and computer, and after work, stay at home to play games, and the krypton gold in the game is more money-saving than other entertainment.
Originally, I thought that socialization was very important, but it was better and more economical to live without friends.
This tremendous transformation is the result of social stagnation.
Blind optimism, crazy greed, creates people's self-confidence and arrogance.
And the gradual return to calm brings with it extreme rationality or pessimistic expectations.
In fact, the two ideas are not influenced by the general trend of society, and are not dominated by the will of the individual.