The magnificent year 1992 is fleeting, and the new year 1993 is soon coming. After 12 years of Republican dominance, the White House in Washington finally has a new Democratic president. Clinton's luck was still quite good, he just took office and picked up a big bargain. The U.S. economy is rapidly emerging from recession and regaining high-speed growth amid the continuous clarion call for the Internet and other emerging industries.

Since AOL was listed on the NASDAQ in the middle of last year, 11 Internet companies have taken a total of more than $3 billion from the U.S. stock market in just one year.

Therefore, Clinton's first trouble after taking office as president was not to worry about the sluggish US economy, but to have to consider whether the United States is overheating. The U.S. economy has been following an accommodative monetary policy for the last three years, after eight or nine years of gradual decline. The abundant money supply not only fuels the bull market in US stocks, which has been going on for almost a year, but also may further lead to inflation.

As a result, in early August, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan announced that the US federal benchmark interest rate would increase by 0.25%, from 3.25% to 3.5%. After testing that the market reaction was not drastic with a minimum rate hike, the Federal Reserve announced that it would gradually raise interest rates from a low of 3.25% to 6% in the next year, and the United States officially entered a new round of interest rate hikes.

The U.S. dollar is the core currency of the global financial system, and its every move has a ripple effect. First of all, the US interest rate hike means that the return on capital at home has become higher, the dollar has begun to appreciate, and a large amount of capital outflows have begun to flow back into the US.

The exchange rate of many countries and regions is pegged to the US dollar, and the appreciation of the US dollar means that the currencies of these countries and regions will appreciate simultaneously, which directly leads to the soaring cost of exports. The accelerated return of the dollar to the United States will lead to the rapid loss of dollar foreign exchange in other economies. Once the foreign exchange reserves of these countries and regions are depleted, their exchange rate systems will collapse completely.

Less than half a year after the US announced an interest rate hike, the first victim appeared - Mexico!

"The Mexican peso is over, this financial crisis will soon bring more spillover effects, and then Brazil, Argentina and the whole of South America will be sheared by Wall Street!" Li Xuan glanced at the latest piece of information sent from the United States on the electronic screen, and then swept the crowd hugging each other in the operation room, and said with a slight sigh.

Just three minutes ago, at 11:28 p.m. on March 29, 1994, Mexico time, the Mexican government officially announced that the peso would abandon the three-year fixed exchange rate system and that the floating range of the exchange rate against the dollar would be expanded to 15%, which would mean that the peso would be devalued.

The Mexican currency crisis began with the Federal Reserve's announcement of a rate hike by the US dollar in August last year. Three years before the U.S. began to raise interest rates, a large amount of profit-seeking dollar capital flowed into global markets due to the loose fiscal policy of the United States and the low level of U.S. interest rates.

And Mexico, the neighbor of the United States, is one of the biggest beneficiaries of this round of dollar flooding. In just a few years, Mexico has attracted more than $90 billion in foreign investment. And as the U.S. dollar enters a rate hike cycle, more and more international investors are choosing to leave Mexico and return to the U.S. capital market.

This quickly depleted Mexico's already limited dollar reserves, and just a week ago, the assassination of Donald Kalosio, the presidential candidate of Mexico's Institutional Revolution Party, who was widely expected to win Mexico's election this year, was assassinated.

This political crisis completely triggered a panic in international capital, and countless coin dumps were thrown at the Bank of Mexico. The Mexican government has poured $4 billion into the foreign exchange market in the past three days to stabilize people's minds, but to no avail.

Therefore, the poor Mexican government can only announce a 15% increase in the exchange rate fluctuation of the peso against the US dollar, and ease the pressure on the exchange rate by making the peso depreciate moderately. But this is only a prelude to the peso's collapse, because even if the peso depreciates by 15%, the Bank of Mexico's dollar reserves are still far from enough to exchange the full number of pesos sold by foreign capital.

Therefore, the exchange rate fluctuation range of the peso against the US dollar will continue to increase to 30% and 50% until it finally achieves free floating!

And the reason why everyone in the operation room was cheering wildly was because this speculative team serving Li Xuan, like the international tour capital that attacked the peso exchange rate this time, had already shorted a large number of Mexican pesos. The next depreciation frenzy of the peso will not only bring Li Xuan a large amount of profit, but also allow everyone present to receive a enough surprising bonus number!

"Ah Xuan, I remember you seem to have said before that the whole of South America is the backyard of Wall Street capital. Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, the biggest investors in these countries are originally Wall Street, and this time there is destined to be a lot of American capital trapped, so how to shear sheep?" Li Xuan's eldest brother Li Ke asked with a frown.

He is also one of the small bosses of this speculative team, so today he also witnessed the collapse of a country's currency with Li Xuan.

There is a Bible in the capital world, as long as you outlive the enemy, you will be the ultimate victor. And even if you lose a lot before, you can double it back in the end!

The Mexican government has appealed to the International Monetary Fund and the U.S. government for help as early as the outbreak of the peso crisis. As Mexico's close friend, how can the United States not be able to save itself! Therefore, on the television news in the near future, you will see President Clinton announcing that the United States will provide huge financial assistance to the Mexican government!

It's just that these U.S. government funds will only be used first to rescue American banks and U.S. investors trapped in Mexico's quagmire, while their Mexican counterparts can only die a tragic death in the midst of a sharp inflationary contraction. And when they were cold, the Americans regained their strength and came to enjoy these delicious corpses!

For Wall Street, the current exchange rate losses are all illusions! They will soon help Mexico recreate a round of economic growth, and when the peso exchange rate returns to normal levels in a few years, there will be time to cash out and retreat slowly!" Li Xuan explained indifferently.

"By the way, the linked exchange rate of our Hong Kong dollar seems to be the same as the Mexican peso, which is pegged to the US dollar in a small area! Will Soros and other international financial giants you mentioned earlier also come to Hong Kong one day to make trouble?" Li Ke asked in hindsight.

"You finally asked the point, so I specially asked you to take a look today, the routine of other people's greetings, lest the guests arrive at the door and don't know yet!" Li Xuan said with a smile.

"Do they really dare to come?" Li Ke asked in surprise.

"Why don't you dare?" In the previous ninety-two years, Soros even dared to touch the tiger whiskers of the pound, and finally succeeded in achieving a smooth escape, not to mention Hong Kong, a British colony!" Li Xuan glanced at his eldest brother and said.

On the contrary, Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia are currently in a similar predicament to Mexico!

Especially in Thailand, if you use an idiom to describe it, it is like a dangerous egg!" The person in charge of this operation room, who is also the boss of the entire Hong Kong speculative team, a middle-aged man with some good figures, seriously explained to Li Ke.

There are many billionaires surnamed Li in Hong Kong, even if there is more than one with a net worth of more than 10 billion. But because of Li Xuan's jade pearl in front, the word "Li Sheng" seems to have become his proper noun in Hong Kong. The only exception is Li Ke, as the eldest brother of the "God of Wealth Li", he enjoys being called "Da Li Sheng" by others.

"Since the bursting of the bubble in Japan's stock market and property market in the 90s, a large amount of surplus capital in China has begun to be exported overseas, of which Southeast Asia has been the focus of Japan's investment in recent years, which has promoted the rapid growth of the entire Southeast Asian economy!

The local market of Southeast Asian countries is small, and the oversupply brought about by high investment can only be digested by exports! And the exchange rate of the Thai baht is also pegged to the US dollar, so the Thai baht has been appreciating with the US dollar since last year, which has begun to affect the export competitiveness of Thai products. Li Xuan explained.

"The Thai baht exchange rate has been pegged to the US dollar since '84, and it has attracted a lot of foreign investment in the past decade due to the stability of the exchange rate and the fact that Thailand's domestic interest rates are much higher than those of the United States. At the beginning, this international capital was mainly invested in the industry, which really contributed to the development of the Thai economy.

However, in recent years, a large amount of international capital has been transferred to the real estate and securities markets, which has not only pushed the Thai stock market up sharply, but also continuously pushed up the housing prices in Bangkok! With the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and the US dollar appreciating, Thailand has also seen a large-scale wave of cash-out and withdrawal!

In order to stabilize the exchange rate, the Thai government has been selling US dollars to the foreign exchange market on the one hand, and on the other hand, it has followed the US dollar to raise interest rates at the same time, hoping to use higher domestic interest rates to retain foreign capital! This combination has indeed produced an effect, and with a large number of new foreign capital entering Thailand for arbitrage, Thailand has resumed its net capital inflow!

However, the increase in bank interest rates will create a new problem, that is, it will greatly increase the financing cost of enterprises. This is tantamount to adding insult to injury to the Thai economy, which is already sluggish in exports!

It is impossible for interest rates to increase indefinitely, and these new influxes of floating capital, once they find that there is no room for follow-up arbitrage, will quickly choose to leave! When that happens, Mexico's current tragedy will be repeated in Thailand!" The slightly chubby person in charge took Li Xuan's words and continued to explain.

Don't look at his honest appearance, but the light flashing in his eyes made Li Ke shudder.

The entire team responsible for speculating on the Mexican peso this time, in addition to the twenty or thirty people in the operation room in Hong Kong, has almost the same number of personnel as far away as New York, USA. In this Mexican currency crisis, the Hong Kong side is only responsible for providing some auxiliary work for the New York team. And in the next Asian financial crisis, they will in turn become the protagonists.

"Just as Mexico's economic crisis will spill over to the whole of South America, the financial turmoil in Southeast Asia will also affect the whole of Asia! When Thailand goes wrong, India-Nepal and Malaysia will be the first to suffer, and Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea will also be affected!

So the company in your hand should be more leisurely, don't overexpand, if you really want to invest, go north to the mainland!" Li Xuan advised.

"Won't there be a problem on the mainland?" asked Li Ke curiously.

"A big reason why the Mexican peso was declared lost in just one week is that the Mexican capital market is completely open to foreign investors and can come and go freely!

For example, if you invest in a joint venture factory, you will be liable for breach of contract if you withdraw your capital before the contract ends! Even if the contract is over, if you want to withdraw the funds out of China with interest, you also need to go through the strict review of the relevant financial departments!

What's more, the interest rate of the renminbi is also under the control of the People's Bank of China, and foreign investors have no ability to short China! The only problem that China needs to bear pressure is that the Asian financial crisis has caused the demand in the global market to decline, which will cause the export output value to shrink sharply and drag down the overall economic growth slowdown!

After the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis, the hinterland economy will certainly usher in a trough of one or two years! However, after all, this is a huge market with a population of more than 1 billion, and many problems can be solved as long as a part of domestic demand is released!

What's more, the core of the global economy is still the European and American markets, as long as there are no major problems in the European and American markets, the global economy will soon be able to get out of the trough!" Li Xuan patiently explained.

"I see what you mean, after the Americans have finished cutting the South American back garden, they are going to come to the Asian vegetable garden to cut vegetables again!" Li Ke said with a sigh.

His companies, whether it is Starlight Pager or Family Pictures, have been increasing their share of the Southeast Asian market in recent years. And after the financial crisis, the whole of Southeast Asia will be chicken feathers, and the blow to the enterprises under Li Ke's name can be imagined.

A few years ago, he was not very concerned about expanding northward to open up the mainland market, but now it seems that he is still too complacent! No wonder the Oriental Bloc has been making more and more moves in the mainland in the past two or three years, and he must have anticipated the current situation long ago!

People are more angry than people, Li Ke can't help but feel a little discouraged! But fortunately, he has always had a good mentality, and his brother is 10,000 times smarter than himself, and this fact is not known today, so Li Ke quickly adjusted his mood!

In fact, it is not only Li Ke's enterprises that have a lot of interests in Southeast Asia, but even the Oriental Group itself has a lot of involvement with Southeast Asia! Among them, the profits brought by the Southeast Asian market to the Oriental Group are only one aspect, and on the other hand, many enterprises in the industrial chain of the Oriental Group are located in Southeast Asian countries.

In the collaborative era of the global division of labor, neither Li Xuan nor the Oriental Group can be left alone. Therefore, before the crisis came, Li Xuan could only try to guide his partners to quickly reduce the asset-liability ratio to reduce the risk, and at the same time persuade some Southeast Asian capital to go north to invest in the safer mainland!