Chapter 226: Return to Hong Kong and Save Hong Kong

Zhang Ru also carried a stack of Hong Kong newspapers, as well as various documents and think tank reports from the finance department of the Department of New Entrepreneurship.

In fact, the financial department of the new venture electronics company still digs a lot of professionals from banks, investment banks, brokers, funds, insurance, and accounting firms, and the entire company's financial department specializes in raising 60 research experts who are not ordinary accounting cashiers, 80% of whom have a doctorate degree or above, and have experience in well-known financial institutions. These people have a monthly salary of more than 20,000 yuan, and they still have commissions for research, but they are not doing what the company's finance should do.

Usually, many experts also act as think tanks, doing research and writing reports, although, in most cases, these reports are waste paper, and no one in charge of various departments, including Lin Qi, reads their bullshit research reports. Of course, it is still necessary to keep these people, some articles may not be used in ordinary times, and when you need to take a few in-depth studies to look at the critical time, the researchers in the company have already been prepared, and a bunch of dry goods are put on the table, and everything you should know is known, which is also a good thing.

At least, now there is no Baidu, there is no keyboard expert, if you want to know something, go online and ask, you can find the reference answer provided by the egg pain industry insider.

In addition, these people are combined with computer experts to write all kinds of hardware and software, and they are making technical reserves for quantitative investment. The analysis of the current market, including the analysis of charts and indicators in the later computer age, is a metaphysical category. But then this metaphysics incubated the monster of quantitative investment.

As computer performance got better and better, quantitative investing gradually became a hot topic, and computer programs beat human investors, leaving most of the traders and fund managers who subjectively judged financial operations out of work, which has become the norm in the future.

The financial investment industry has laid off fund managers who invest exclusively on their own research, because statistics show that most of the active investment performance is behind the passive investment that follows the index, in this case, buying a basket of successful stocks in the index can beat 95% of the active investment funds.

The pioneer fund in the United States is the degree of passive investment to become the largest fund company in the United States, this company rarely hires active investment fund managers, and only according to the index of different markets, the launch of fund products corresponding to the index, so that the company does not need to hire researchers to study the operation of each company, anyway, they only sell index funds, with the index investment defeats active investment, the United States active investment institutions have shrunk on a large scale. After all, it is well known that Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett beat the market (index investing) by actively investing. In this case, it is better to buy an index fund with low fees than to determine whether you or the active fund you invest in can beat the market.

But then there was a person who broke the myth of "index investment" through a new way of investing. That's Simmons of Renaissance Tech, a man who proves that technology is changing the world, and that computers are triumphing over humanity in yet another field.

Simmons, the founder of Renaissance Technology, was not a financial expert, but a mathematician, and later gathered a large number of people who had nothing to do with financial speculation and established a high-tech speculation company, most of which were mathematicians, physicists, biologists and programmers.

Although its investment still needs to be maintained by human technicians, the trading instructions are done by the computer itself, not by human traders.

As it turned out, index investing outperformed 95% of active investors, however, the quantitative investment of the Medallion Fund outperformed the index in both bull and bear markets. Then, contrary to the cheap Vanguard fund company, the badge not only charges a 5% management fee, but also pays a 40% commission on the profit to its management team...... Of course, this is someone who grabs money with their ability,

To put it simply – the Medallion is the alpha dog of the financial speculation industry.

These useless financial personnel, of course, have not yet shown the level of Simmons.

Moreover, Lin Qi will only take their suggestions as a reference, and will not be led by these people.

For example, these professionals give a bunch of analytical articles, the reasons for bullishness of the Hong Kong dollar are 1, 2, 3, and the reasons for the bearish reasons of the Hong Kong dollar are 1, 2, 3......

It is estimated that each report writer will prepare two drafts, and choose to come up with different drafts according to the future performance of the market.

Lin Qi is currently looking at these reports and comparing them with the information in his memory, so as to avoid not knowing some details. After spending more than ten hours laughing at these materials, Lin Qi's feeling was-"So that's the case...... Actually, I already knew, and I knew more than you." Even so, these references still give Lin Qi more help.

……

In the early days, Hong Kong's currency issuance was just a convenient settlement for colonial merchants by the British colonial government in Hong Kong, and at the same time, the coinage rights could also bring additional fiscal revenue.

Since the 60s, land auctions have gradually become the main source of revenue for the Hong Kong government. In essence, the British government in Hong Kong is reluctant to let go, precisely because of the various interests derived from the auction of land in Hong Kong. Therefore, it is not possible to directly bring the revenue of Hong Kong's treasury to London, but through finance, infrastructure and various orders, as well as a large number of high-quality real estate held in the British-funded consortium, its rent collection and sale of real estate that has increased in price by 10,000 times can realize its colonial income.

Standard Chartered and HSBC, the two major note-issuing banks, have been both official and commercial from the beginning, and have the status of quasi-central banks, and the banknote issuance itself cannot directly earn profits, but because of the credit obtained, after enhancing the credit, it will naturally be able to get more deposits and lend more loans.

With the credit of the local government in Hong Kong, of course, it cannot issue currency, and even if it does, the credit may not exceed the Zimbabwean currency. Therefore, the Hong Kong dollar has long been issued under the Linked Exchange Rate System.

In the beginning, the Hong Kong dollar was issued as margin in pounds sterling, and the exchange rate was fixed with the pound sterling. However, in the 70s, the pound continued to depreciate, and the linked exchange rate between the Hong Kong dollar and the British pound caused many businessmen who held Hong Kong dollars to suffer heavy losses, and affected the normal currency settlement in Hong Kong.

Therefore, in the 70s, the Hong Kong dollar once implemented a linked exchange rate system with the US dollar, and in 72 years, the Hong Kong dollar was decoupled from the British pound exchange rate, announcing that it was tied to the US dollar, and the fixed exchange rate of 1 US dollar to 5.65 Hong Kong dollars was announced.

However, in 74 the dollar announced its decoupling from gold, and it is clear that the exchange rate of the dollar will not be as stable as in the past.

Subsequently, the Hong Kong government announced that the Hong Kong dollar would be decoupled from the US dollar, and the Hong Kong dollar gradually became a credit currency with a floating exchange rate system, no longer tied to other currencies, and relied on credit to issue, so that note-issuing banks and a large number of financial institutions in Hong Kong could naturally issue more local banknotes and lend more loans.

This also led to the sudden acceleration of Hong Kong's local economy in the 70s, especially in real estate, finance and other industries, which benefited the most.

With the decoupling of the Hong Kong dollar from sovereign currencies such as the US dollar and the British pound, the value of the Hong Kong dollar depends on people's confidence in Hong Kong's future.

Credit is shaken, investors are selling the Hong Kong dollar, and refusing to accept the Hong Kong dollar as the settlement currency, then ...... Not only will Hong Kong's financial industry be hit hard, but the entire Hong Kong economy will suffer a serious setback!

With the fluctuation of the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate, even Chinese mainland companies still take into account the so-called "political situation" and continue to accept the Hong Kong dollar as an intermediary currency for RMB and other currency transactions, so that Hong Kong can continue to share in the commission income generated by the transfer of funds and goods from their own hands.

However, the capital of the United States, Japan and even the United Kingdom has justifiably suspended the collection of Hong Kong dollars!

The refusal of foreign institutions to accept the Hong Kong dollar is a heavy blow to the Hong Kong dollar, which is equivalent to a nuclear bomb.

To put it simply, the decoupling of the Hong Kong dollar from the US dollar, the exchange rate is 1 US dollar to 5 Hong Kong dollars, and it took nearly 8 years to put the Hong Kong dollar currency dozens of times more than the original Hong Kong dollar currency into the market, which only caused the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate to depreciate slightly to the extent that 1 US dollar was exchanged for 6 Hong Kong dollars.

However, after the failure of the Sino-British negotiations in 82, the long-term fluctuation of people's morale also caused the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate to continue to fall, and in September, the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate fell below 1 US dollar to 7 Hong Kong dollars for the first time.

In order to cope with the downward pressure on the Hong Kong dollar, on September 8, 83, the Hong Kong Association of Banks announced that it would raise the deposit interest rate by 1.5% from the next day, that is, the annual interest rate of depositors' one-year deposits would rise to 7% per annum. In fact, in order to stimulate the sluggishness of Hong Kong's property market and stock market in recent years, deposit and loan interest rates have been lowered several times. In contrast, at the peak of the 80 years, the one-year deposit interest rate was higher than 18%, and the deposit interest rate reached more than 12%. At present, the deposit rate in Hong Kong has been reduced to 6%, which is the lowest level in several years.

As for the collective increase in deposit and savings interest rates by banks, it is only to enhance depositors' confidence in the Hong Kong dollar, and at the same time, to avoid themselves being run by panicked depositors.

You must know that since the decoupling of the Hong Kong dollar from the US dollar in 74 years, the Hong Kong dollar has been regarded as a credit currency, and there is no need for foreign exchange as a margin at all, and there is nothing else as a guarantee, so the scale of Hong Kong dollar issuance has increased uncontrollably.

Coupled with the prosperity of the real estate and financial industries, banks are frantically absorbing deposits and lending loans, while ignoring operational risks. Now that the credit of the Hong Kong dollar is seriously doubted by the market, the worst losses are of course some small and medium-sized banks that do not consider the risks enough.

In the years that followed, when banks that still largely ignored the risks paid for their once aggressive efforts, hundreds of financial institutions in Hong Kong went bankrupt and were merged.

Even though the banking sector raised the interest rate on deposits, on September 14, a day later, the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate suffered another sharp blow, falling to HK$7.89, a record low for the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate.

However, on September 16, Hong Kong Financial Secretary Pang Laizhi accused at a media conference that "the Bank of China continued to buy US dollars and short the Hong Kong dollar", causing the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate crisis.

However...... The biggest sell-off of Hong Kong dollars and the purchase of US dollars was HSBC, the Hong Kong dollar issuer.

During the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate crisis, note-issuing banks, including HSBC and Standard Chartered, also shorted the Hong Kong dollar to hedge against the depreciation of their own Hong Kong dollar assets. HSBC has continued to sell at least 10 billion Hong Kong dollars to buy US dollars from the market, and the biggest Hong Kong dollar short is definitely HSBC.

As for other foreign and local Hong Kong companies, and even some people who have some savings, many of them are accomplices to the sharp drop in the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar. At the moment, the whole market is full of investors who are selling Hong Kong dollars and buying US dollars.

Of course...... In fact, it is obvious that the exchange of foreign exchange in hindsight can not make a penny, but may be continued to be embarrassed.

The real explosion should be the new entrepreneurship department, including the new venture electronics, new flying technology, new venture publishing and other companies, financial resources and bank credit range, but all of them have used up the resources that can be used, use all the credit lines of the bank, obtain a large number of Hong Kong dollar loans, and then ...... These Hong Kong dollars continue to be exchanged for US dollars!

When the market is crazy to grab limited dollars, most banks only provide dollar cash withdrawal services to customers who have originally deposited dollars.

As for other non-US dollar depositors, if they want to exchange US dollars, the handling fee has even risen to 5%, and there is a limit on the annual exchange.

In addition, the exchange rate of the black market is even darker, and speculators who do not trust the Hong Kong dollar at all have even accepted the fair price of 10 Hong Kong dollars to 1 US dollar or even 15 Hong Kong dollars to 1 US dollar in the black market!

Of course, the depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar has benefited the new venture consortium the most, and the new venture electronics company has benefited the most, from which it has obtained an exchange gain of 1 billion Hong Kong dollars, and the original Pangu host's continuous loss and burning of money caused the company to fall into a total loss for 8 months, which has also been wiped out. At present, with the gradual decline of hardware costs and the continuous growth of user scale, the profits of software sales feed back the loss-making sales of hardware, and it is expected that by the end of the year, the overall breakeven of the Pangu ecosystem will be carried out. As for the hardware machine, it is estimated that it will be able to turn around in the first half of 84.

In addition, Xinfei Technology Co., Ltd. has obtained more than 500 million Hong Kong dollars in foreign exchange income, coupled with the strong income of CD, VCD, CD-ROM major products, this year's profit of Xinfei Technology is expected to be no less than 1 billion Hong Kong dollars!

The foreign exchange income of the new venture publishing company exceeded 70 million Hong Kong dollars, which exceeded the net profit of last year, and this year will also exceed the 200 million Hong Kong dollar mark because of this additional windfall!

At present, although the new entrepreneurship department is not the institution with the most US dollars in Hong Kong, it is definitely the top five US dollar cash reserves.

As the Hong Kong dollar fell below 8 against the US dollar, Lin Qi said with confidence: "Go, go back to Hong Kong, save the Hong Kong dollar!"