In the presidential suite on the top floor of the Hilton Hotel, Poirot sat on the sofa and leaned forward, listening to Zhang Heng's speech respectfully.

At that famous Japanese restaurant, he was ready to bleed again, but before he went out, he was told that the account had been settled, which saved him at least $200, enough for him to maintain a frugal life for a month.

Thoughtfulness, respect, trust, this is what Zhang Heng gave him when he met him for the second time.

Poirot's heart was filled with gratitude, and a certain emotion that came with it, which he naturally did not know, which is called in Chinese "the death of a confidant".

"If it is expected that oil prices will rise sharply in a certain period of time in the future, is there a good way to make profits?" was Zhang Heng's first question.

Poirot thought for a moment and said, "There are no oil futures on the market, and the Chicago Board of Trade experimented with it in the 50s, but it quickly went wrong and then stopped. ”

Zhang Heng has a little understanding of this, the first oil futures should be the fuel futures listed on the New York Stock Exchange in the eighties, he wants to know whether there are other derivatives to speculate.

In 1973, two hours away, the time of the first oil crisis is clearly recorded in his notebook.

"You can make a profit by buying shares in the oil companies in question, or you can simply buy a lot of spot. Poirot gave a suggestion.

Zhang Heng shook his head, in the first oil crisis, all oil-related stocks in Europe and the United States not only did not rise, but continued to plummet, because the outbreak of the oil crisis shows that these companies have no leadership in the industry.

He doesn't have an oil company in hand, how can he operate the oil spot, and he will definitely be targeted at that time, and where can the oil he bought be stored?

It seems that this can only be chosen, Zhang Heng said: "Let's talk about gold futures." ”

When it comes to gold futures, Poirot is very energetic, because of his own issuance of mining bonds, after he came to the United States, he paid special attention to the financial transactions of metal resources, especially precious metals, and talked endlessly.

On August 15, 1971, U.S. President Richard Nixon made a televised speech closing the gold window and stopping the exchange of dollars for gold, and the Bretton Woods system, which had been established for nearly three decades, collapsed.

Since then, the US dollar has broken free from the prison of gold and floated freely in the foreign exchange market, and the price of gold has finally come out of the long-term trough and gradually entered an upward channel.

From the day of Nixon's speech to today, December 31, 1972, the global price of gold has risen from $35 to $63 per ounce, an 80% increase.

This is Poirot's history, in his view, with the continued inflation in the United States, with the rapid development of the global electronics industry for the expansion of demand for precious metals, the dollar will continue to depreciate, and precious metals will maintain a long-term bull market, but no one can predict its highs.

"Selling dollar assets, buying precious metals, or other assets that store value is the consensus of all the predators on Wall Street!" Poirot said excitedly, "The boss's vision is really good." ”

This guy was called before the agreement was officially signed, and he really has a future.

Zhang Heng smiled, the history he "saw" is more long-term, and gold, a special commodity, will come out of a wave of jaw-dropping market in the future.

In 1981, the price of gold reached its first peak at US$599 per ounce, followed by a 30-year bear market before rising again in 2001, reaching its all-time high of US$1,923 per ounce in 2011.

If you buy $1 million in gold at any time before August '71, regardless of the rise and fall in the middle, and sell it in 2011, you can get at least $60 million in returns, which is completely outperforming all investment funds in the same period.

Gold is so crazy, silver is not far behind, due to the conspiracy and manipulation of some super investors, its short-term trend will be even more crazy, but the time has not yet come, Zhang Heng decided to choose gold, do a short-term speculation.

In March '73, around the same time as the Oscars, the Bureau of the United Nations General Assembly received a proposal drafted by Switzerland and signed by many Member States, which immediately caused an uproar around the world.

After more than half a year of fermentation, the proposal will be adopted in November with the support of 99% of the members of the UN General Assembly, and will be later named the International Convention on the Suppression and Punishment of the Crime of Apartheid.

As the name suggests, this proposal is aimed at the South African government.

Since December 1971, the South African government has adopted stricter quarantine measures, expelling the vast majority of the country's population of blacks to 10 border areas that make up only 13% of the country's land area, which has triggered strong condemnation from public opinion around the world.

In May 1972, Mandela and his party comrades, who were imprisoned on Robben Island, declared an indefinite hunger strike, during which three people starved to death, and the others were forcibly fed and rescued.

This incident led directly to a series of suicide attacks by black underground guerrillas in June, and strong condemnation from all countries in the world except South Africa.

Switzerland, the famous Notre Dame country among the developed countries, was the first to stand up and vow to fight to end this inhumane and brutal system, and it quickly rallied a large group of Taoist friends to finally submit a proposal to the United Nations, which was almost unanimously adopted.

Since then, the South African government has been completely isolated from the rest of the world, no country has granted diplomatic or tourist visas to its officials, all the assets of officials abroad have been frozen, no company dares to openly trade with any South African institution, and all other goods except humanitarian goods have been embargoed.

At the height of the illegal smuggling activity, American and British warships even sailed directly to the Cape of Good Hope to blockade the port of Cape Town and inspect passing ships for a month.

It was almost the end of the United Nations Army.

After the proposal was submitted to the UN General Assembly, the South African government strongly protested and announced that it would impose punitive trade measures on countries that submitted and annexed the proposal.

What is the most important trade item in South Africa at this time?

Gold is the first in terms of value, diamonds in second place, and agricultural products in third place.

In 1971, Australia and the United States, the world's second and third largest gold producers, produced 37 tonnes and 31 tonnes of gold respectively, while South Africa, as the first gold producer, produced 363 tonnes of gold that year, accounting for 63% of the world's total gold production (not counting the Soviet Union and China, which did not disclose their production at the time).

In March 73, after the news of this proposal was announced by the media, gold began to rise violently, and when the South African government's statement came out, the global gold price jumped sharply, instantly crossing the $100 pressure line.

After a while, after everyone found out that the South African government was only verbally tough, it slowly fell back a little, but since then, it has never lowered the $100 line.

In just three months, the rise has nearly doubled, such a good arbitrage opportunity, Zhang Heng naturally will not miss it, he is most concerned about leverage.

The computational engineering required to ensure that you buy as many gold contracts as possible and set aside enough margin to deal with short-term fluctuations is not simple, and it is up to actuaries and brokers to use their own knowledge to calculate independently when there is no systematic futures software.

Zhang Heng and Poirot took a pen and paper, calculated for half an hour, and came up with a more reasonable capital ratio and purchase method:

With $65,000 and 100 times leverage, buy 1,000 COMEX gold contracts expiring in June '73, leaving $335,000 as margin, which can resist the maximum decline of $3.3 in extreme cases, that is, it will fall as soon as you buy it.

Such a large decline has never happened in a year, and the overall trend of gold is slow.

After agreeing to go to the Dolvin company tomorrow to sign the formal entrustment agreement, Poirot left in high spirits.

Lin Liang participated in the whole process alone, and after a little reminder at the beginning, he only cared about the relevant parts of the law in the operation, which made Zhang Heng very satisfied.

PS: Thank you to my friend [Gu Xuhuai] for 100 tips!