The schedule of this trip to Hong Kong is very tight, and I can only talk to Elliott in the executive lounge of the hotel the next day to deal with Sina stocks.

I chatted with Yan Xiaoqin on the phone about the video website last night, and it took a long time, Chen Qiaoshan got up late today, and Elliot was already waiting.

Chen Qiaoshan took a breakfast first, and then walked to the table where Elliot was and asked, "Why don't you have one?"

"No, I've already eaten it. When Eliot saw him arrive, he put away the newspaper in his hand.

The executive lounge itself is very private, and there are not many people who come here for breakfast, and the two of them did not ask for a private room, after sitting down, Chen Qiaoshan asked first: "How was the trend last night?"

Although there was no beginning or end, Eliot knew exactly what he was asking.

"It's calm, there is no further news, Sina's stock price is still fluctuating at a high level around $33, and the market is waiting for Shanda's next move. ”

Five days ago, rumors spread that Sina would change hands on the evening of February 18.

The news came very suddenly, and the outside world generally speculated that Yahoo might be going to do something to Sina, and the scandal between the two had already spread.

As a result, it was not until 0:00 on the 19th that Shanda announced that it had bought 19.5% of Sina's shares through the secondary market with persons acting in concert, becoming Sina's actual largest shareholder, and Sina's share price soared 17% in the second half of the night.

As early as the end of December last year, nearly one-third of Chen Qiaoshan's withdrawal from the crude oil futures market was invested in Sina stocks.

Last year, because of the bearish domestic Internet SMS business, several major portals were sold by European and American investors without exception, and their market value continued to shrink.

Because the decline was too deep, Sina was also in the United States by European and American investors class action lawsuits, affected by this, Sina's stock price fell further, when Chen Qiaoshan happened to make a big profit from crude oil futures, seeing the relevant news, he immediately thought of the future acquisition war, when even if he confessed to Elliott to buy a large amount.

The reason given by Chen Qiaoshan is very simple, he is optimistic about the Internet portal, although this reason is very unconvincing, but Elliot is used to Chen Qiaoshan's style, and he entered the market without asking too much.

Sure enough, after only a month and a half, the situation suddenly reversed.

First of all, the smooth settlement of the lawsuit, coupled with the annual report profit margin forecast better than market expectations, Sina's market value has risen sharply.

Now there is news of Shanda's entry into the market, and under repeated stimulus, Sina's stock price has skyrocketed to $33, which is more than 50% based on Chen Qiaoshan's average purchase price of $21 per share earlier.

As the handler, Elliot also had to sigh at Chen Qiaoshan's vision and luck, as for other possibilities, he didn't think much about it.

Chen Qiaoshan knew the final direction of this equity dispute, Sina was not swallowed up by Shanda, nor was it pocketed by the original major shareholder, but finally fell into the hands of the management, achieving the first MBO in China's Internet industry, which is the clear context of Sina's future.

"How many Sina stocks do we have?" Chen Qiaoshan swallowed the last bite of bacon, feeling a little unsatisfied, compared to Chinese food, Western food seems exquisite, but lacks satiety, and one obviously can't satisfy his appetite.

Western-style breakfast is always not as real as soy milk fritters, not very to his taste, but he did not go to the table to get a share, which is different from investment, a meal of seven or eight points is enough, but investment is to squeeze out every profit as much as possible.

"We hold a total of 1.07 million shares of Sina, and the current shareholding ratio is about 2.12%, with a market value of more than 35 million US dollars. Elliot handed over a stack of materials and then asked, "Chen, are you leaving the scene now?"

He has been thinking about this problem, there are too many uncertainties in the acquisition war, and although Sina has not had a clear attitude towards the grand raid, there have been many rumors in the market.

As we all know, Sina's shareholding situation is too complicated, and before Shanda's intervention, there was no single controlling major shareholder, which gave too many opportunities to the outside world, and the management shareholding ratio was too low and did not have enough right to speak, which is also the reason why it has been repeatedly criticized by the market.

If Sina and Shanda reach a merger agreement, there is undoubtedly room for the stock price to rise sharply, if the two collapse, it depends on which of the two sides moves fast, Shanda takes the lead in controlling the situation, it is good to say, if the board of directors of Sina takes the initiative, this investment may be greatly discounted.

Elliot knows very well that he is gambling now, compared with the analysis team of UBS, he undoubtedly trusts Chen Qiaoshan's judgment more, whether it is vision or luck, in the face of so many opportunities, Chen Qiaoshan has never missed a cent, and this alone is enough to be convincing.

Chen Qiaoshan did not give an answer immediately, but first flipped through the information he had just gotten.

The information collected by Elliott is very detailed, and there are many predictions of Sina's possible response by UBS investment researchers, including the "poison pill plan", Chen Qiaoshan flipped through it with great interest and asked, "What is your opinion?"

"If I had made the decision, at the $25 mark, it would have all been delivered. Elliot's tone is very natural, what you earn is money, and wealth on paper looks at the scenery, but the risk is too high, and if you don't do it, you may lose everything, there are too many such examples.

Chen Qiaoshan asked, "You mean to sell?"

"Of course, why not?" Eliot replied in the affirmative, as he was like his other European and American counterparts who were affected by the last stock market crash and were generally bearish on the future of Chinese stocks.

As if seeing the disapproval in Chen Qiaoshan's eyes, Elliot asked, "What, do you have a different opinion?"

Chen Qiaoshan put down the information in his hand, the research report is only for reference, if the accuracy rate is one-tenth of the weather forecast, there will not be so many investors who lose money, even if these are from UBS analysts, he does not attach great importance to them, compared to these, his memory is undoubtedly a hundred times more reliable.

"I don't think Sina's board of directors will take it easy, and I certainly don't think it's going to be a takeover war with Sina. ”

Chen Qiaoshan gave his own judgment, and he was ready to say that he should have said the future trend of the equity acquisition case.

He doesn't worry about any trouble, this kind of thing is a matter of opinion, even if it is verified one by one after the fact, it is just another prediction, by the way, he also gave his own reasons, since it is a judgment, there must always be a convincing reason:

"Shanda's volume is now no more than $3 billion, and their holding costs are definitely higher than ours, conservatively estimated to be between $200 million and $300 million. ”

"Do you think Shanda's acquisition of Sina will end up being a financial investment?" Elliot quickly understood what Chen Qiaoshan meant.

"Of course, because this is in the best interest of several parties. Chen Qiaoshan knew that things didn't stop there, the most important thing would appear in April, as the founding major shareholder of Sina, Sitong Holdings, actually cashed out a large amount of money at a high level when the acquisition war did not end, and took the opportunity to cut another wave of leeks, which surprised the outside world.

Elliot asked, "So let's continue to wait and see?"

"This has to be looked at separately, if Sina's share price falls, we continue to buy. Chen Qiaoshan said the final decision, Shanda can make a lot of money, so there is no need to deal with it negatively, he knows that April is another annual report release season, even Sitong Holdings has jumped out to cash out, I can't say, Sina's stock price still has room to continue to rise, he will not give up the opportunity to make money.