In today's society, no one understands the madness of future housing prices better than Chen Qiaoshan, but the reality is quite helpless.

At present, economists who are optimistic about the decline of the real estate economy abound, not to mention it, let's just say that Wei Jie, who is the same as Chen Qiaoshan's senior brother in the economic circles, is a staunch bearer.

As early as the end of 01, as a professor of economics and management at Tsinghua University, Wei Jie accepted an exclusive interview with CCTV, advocating that the national real estate bubble has far exceeded that of Hainan in 93 years, he made it clear that 02 will be the year of the bubble bursting, and vowed to promise: "If the property market does not collapse, I will jump off the building." ”

Of course, this conclusion is a joke, and Professor Wei did not jump off the building.

Since 02, the real estate industry has shown an overheating phenomenon of investment and demand, and in that year, housing prices rose instead of falling, with an average increase of more than 3.8%.

This is just the beginning, in 03 years, real estate was established as a pillar industry by the state, and the rise in housing prices entered the fast lane.

Professor Yan is not an old scholar who ignores the world, the real estate economy is an industry closely related to the national economy and people's livelihood, although he does not have in-depth research, but he is not ignorant.

Professor Yan knows that the welfare housing was terminated in 98, and now it is the stage of strong demand, and high housing prices have always stirred the nerves of the people.

Bubbles have always existed, but economic bubbles and bubble economies are two completely unrelated concepts and must not be confused.

Professor Yan considered that his disciple's proposal might be worth a try.

Inevitably, he also has some concerns in his heart, this is a very sensitive field, and if he studies it deeply, it is very likely that both sides will not please him, and Wei Jie is a lesson from the past.

At first, Professor Wei's bubble burst theory earned him a lot of fame among ordinary people, but his predictions did not prevent housing prices from continuing to rise, and the result is predictable, with some gullible people holding on to the fence and losing a lot.

More than two years have passed, and from time to time, there are still people posting on the Internet to squeeze Professor Wei to fulfill the contract.

Naturally, the building will not jump, but the face must be lost.

Professor Yan is not worried about following in Wei Jie's footsteps, he has been immersed in academia for half his life, and his vision is so old.

Since real estate is listed as the backbone of the economy, it will certainly not be overwhelmed.

Without in-depth analysis, Professor Yan can also make a basic judgment, and he does not dare to determine whether housing prices can continue to rise in the future, but there is certainly no possibility of squeezing the bubble in the short term.

With the preliminary conclusions, Professor Yan asked: "The real estate industry is indeed worth studying, but the research results of pure theory should not be paid attention to, what is your purpose?"

Chen Qiaoshan said: "Professor Yan, blogs are not for writing papers, they are for ordinary people, no one cares why real estate has become the pillar of the economy, they only care about whether they can afford to buy a house, when it is appropriate to buy a house, as for other issues, no one cares." ”

"From the perspective of value theory, it is difficult for monism to explain the value model of the real estate industry. ”

Professor Yan didn't make a decision lightly, he asked, "Tell me, what are you going to do?"

Chen Qiaoshan didn't answer, took out a note from his pocket, put it on the table and said, "Look at this." ”

Professor Yan took it and looked at it, and couldn't help but be even more puzzled.

This is a handwritten list, not long, but all the people on it are not light.

At the top of the list is Yi Xianrong, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and director of the Financial Development and Financial System Research Office, and after his name, there are a few lines of remarks, "Opinion: There is a serious bubble in housing prices, which is expected to plummet by more than 30%. ”

The second Wang Xiaoguang, a researcher at the Decision-making and Consulting Department of the National Academy of Administration, and director of the Economic Situation Research Office of the Economic Research Institute of the State Planning Commission, "The main point of view: the property market bubble theory, housing prices may fall sharply in 04. ”

The third place, Xie Guozhong......

…………

Professor Yan took a closer look at the list from beginning to end, there are many people, although not everyone knows them, but they basically have the impression that these people have a lot of influence in the academic world, and they have one thing in common, they are the main force of declining housing prices.

Professor Yan's expression was a little dignified, he understood Chen Qiaoshan's character, although this student was young, he was never ambiguous in his work, and he would not easily draw conclusions, but he must be right in his words, and his purpose in making this list is self-evident.

"Do you think house prices will rise sharply in the near future?"

Chen Qiaoshan smiled and nodded, unlike ten years later, today's economic world tends to be conservative, especially for the real estate economy, because there is a painful lesson.

In 92, the real estate bubble in Hainan burst, a large number of real estate developers went bankrupt, and the non-performing loan ratio of many banks was as high as 60%.

Tianya, Haijiao, and unfinished buildings once became the three representative landscapes of Hainan, and even triggered the first bank bankruptcy case since the founding of the People's Republic of China.

The Shanghai Development Bank was established by the merger of five trust and investment companies to save the credit crisis of financial institutions caused by the real estate bubble in Hainan, but despite the support of the government, it eventually collapsed because the burden was too heavy.

It was also the only bank bankruptcy case since the founding of the People's Republic of China, and a commercial bank with a state-owned background finally closed its doors, which had a far-reaching impact, allowing domestic scholars and ordinary people to see the power of the financial bubble.

Some of these depositors have not fully cashed in their deposits for 16 or 7 years, and they have not been able to exchange their money with the confirmation of creditor's rights.

The factors influencing the views of the academic community do not stop there.

97 financial crisis, Hong Kong property bubble burst, housing prices fell by 60%, until 03 years, Hong Kong's economy is still negative growth, 03 years even as high as -2%, has not recovered.

The two serious crises have made domestic economists frightened and even overreacted, which is also the main reason why the economic community is not optimistic about the real estate economy.

Chen Qiaoshan is on the outside, so he naturally will not have these concerns.

In the face of Professor Yan's questioning, Chen Qiaoshan responded very easily, "I don't think we need to care too much, let's just analyze it from the perspective of economics." ”

"Bubbles and assets are the norm of the modern market economy, overvaluation forms bubbles, undervaluation, stimulates growth, forms investment value, the economy is expected and risky, and the same is true for real estate, I think it should be viewed rationally. ”

Professor Yan put the list in his hand on the table, and said very dissatisfiedly: "Still look at it rationally? The list is ready, aren't you going to take someone to sacrifice the flag?"

Chen Qiaoshan sneered: "Professor Yan, it's no wonder to me, their views are too misleading, I can't care about others, our master and apprentice can make some articles." ”

"How do you do this? Are you sure that housing prices will continue to rise?" Professor Yan thought about the entrance examination, although this apprentice was young and his mind was different from ordinary people, he also wanted to know how Chen Qiaoshan viewed the housing price problem.

"Professor Yan, I don't know if you have noticed, at the end of May, the land in Nanjing that was auctioned off 200 million yuan, the average price of the surrounding residential areas is around 4,000, if calculated according to the transaction price of the land king, the floor premium is more than doubled, this will be a problem, land is more expensive than the house. ”

Professor Yan's brows are getting tighter and tighter, this question must be difficult for him, the reason is nothing more than the tight supply, on the other hand, the developer will definitely not suffer, and the risk transfer has become inevitable, who is paying for the high land price, it is clear.

The room fell silent, and both the master and apprentice had their own thoughts.

After a long time, Professor Yan said, "Okay, I'll write this blog." ”

Chen Qiaoshan couldn't help but be overjoyed, please move this big Buddha, and then invite others, it is undoubtedly much simpler.

"What do you think is a good name for your first blog?" Professor Yan asked again.

Chen Qiaoshan was stunned, thought about it, and said: "Let's go from shallow to deep, starting from land finance, it is better to call it 'flour is more expensive than bread', what do you think?"

Professor Yan's spirit was suddenly shocked, and his eyes suddenly brightened, he didn't care about the metaphor of flour, but he was attracted by the words "land finance".

After pondering for a while, he slapped the table, looked at Chen Qiaoshan, and said with a little relief: "Okay, a good land finance, the crux of the summary is to go into it, it seems that you have worked hard, so the next key research topic of the Economic Research Center will be land finance." ”

Chen Qiaoshan looked confused, this was not his original intention, it was just a term on a bad street in later generations, who would have thought that it could cause Professor Yan to be so excited, he was worried that things would change, and hurriedly asked: "Professor Yan, what about you reading the blog?"

Professor Yan glared at him, "Okay, since I promised you, I will definitely not break my promise, no matter what crooked ideas you make, I will help you this time with the four words of land finance." ”

Chen Qiaoshan's hanging heart finally let go, as long as this person agrees, the purpose of this time will be achieved.