After Lin Qi finished the body of his speech, an hour of questions was arranged on the spot.

Soon, the students of the University of Tokyo who were present began to rush to ask Lin Qi questions.

"Mr. Hayashi Qi, I think four years ago, you came to Tokyo University to give a lecture and made a forecast for the Japanese economy. Believe that there are bubbles in the stock market, real estate, and the economy. There was a bubble in the stock market, and there was also a bubble in the real estate, which many people could see at the time. But why did you say that there was a huge bubble in the Japanese economy? In the 80s, Japan's economic growth accelerated even faster than in the 70s. This kind of high-speed growth is second only to the rapid growth in the 50~60s when the economic scale was very low. A young student from the University of Tokyo asked.

"An old man named Warren Buffett, who is more successful in investing in stocks in the United States, mainly uses a glance to see fat and thin, common sense to judge whether some companies are worth investing in. For example, some companies are well-known, the reputation is not bad, the products can be seen everywhere, then most of them are a good company, after determining that it is a good company, the rest is the valuation of the company, if it is not a particularly new industry, it can be compared with peers, not too expensive than peers, and compared with the historical average valuation, can not be more expensive than the historical average valuation, then you can choose a good company and a good price through a simple and simple truth. My view of the Japanese economy and market is very similar to his view of fat and thin at a glance, I don't dig up a bunch of data and use a series of formulas to build models that I don't know if they are useful, I only judge based on the impressions I see and common sense.

If I look at the average valuation of the Japanese stock market after the war as a listed company as a whole, it is easy to conclude that the Japanese stock market was rarely undervalued during periods, such as the sixties, when the price-to-earnings ratio was only 5 times. Most of the time, it rarely exceeded 30 times the P/E ratio, but in '89, the Japanese stock market reached 80 times P/E, and you all feel normal and think that this time is different, Japan is different from other countries, and it can be more valued. The idea...... I'll give you a chestnut, the epic crash in the United States in '29, the average price-earnings ratio was just over 20 times, and that was already a bubble! That crash caused the U.S. stock market to fall by 90 percent, and it swept the world, triggering an unprecedented economic depression.

After World War II, the global economy experienced long-term growth, and the stock market traded at a higher price-to-earnings ratio than it had been in the last century and in the first half of the century.

But even so, the 80 times P/E ratio is still a huge bubble when you look at fat and thin at a glance, and if you know a little about common sense and history.

As for Japan's economic bubble, in addition to the barometer of the stock market, the degree of the stock market bubble and the degree of the real estate price bubble in Japan can basically be judged that there is a bubble caused by irrational prosperity in the Japanese economy...... Moreover, Japan's per capita GDP even exceeds that of the United States, so people who are a little more rational know that it is estimated that it will not work for Japan to increase its economic aggregate by increasing its per capita GDP.

In addition, Japan's birth rate is actually declining, the labor force of adults and prime of life will be less and less, it is difficult for per capita GDP to grow, and the population has shown an inflection point, which is gradually declining, so I think Japan will still be a developed country in the future, but the economy will stagnate or even regress!" Lin Qi said, "It is precisely for this reason that I emphasize that Japan's stagnation is long-term!" It's not short-term, in the next ten or twenty years, if you see that the Japanese stock market index is above 20,000 points, don't hesitate, run for your life, don't imagine that after 20,000 points, it will rush to 30,000 points, and after 30,000 points, it will recover 39,000 points, breaking through the 89-year high. This is really unrealistic, the future of the Japanese economy is basically high stagnation, the per capita GDP is generally about the same as it is now, and the inflation factor is actually lower than now. If you look at these words again in 10, 20, or 30 years, it is estimated that there will be no problems in 30 years! In another country, it is difficult for me to predict the future of a country with an economy that has started to grow. However, it is easy to judge a country like yours that has already developed. There are a large number of similar countries in Europe, all of which are difficult to continue to develop after the GDP per capita has peaked, and long-term stagnation is a normal phenomenon, so you just need to get used to it. ”

In an instant, many people who were present to listen to the speech couldn't help but be very unhappy.

But there are still a large number of people, applauding fiercely!

"Mr. Hayashi, you are not optimistic about the future economic development prospects of Japan, so can you talk about your views on China's economy?"

"China's GDP is not large, and its per capita GDP is very low. Under the condition that the per capita GDP level is very low, there will be stable and sustained economic growth in the long term in the future. Lin Qi said, "At least 30 years, the growth trend will be maintained!"

"That is, you are optimistic about Japan and China on the downside. ”

"If you understand it that way, it's fine. Japan is a country that has already developed, that is, a developed country, and it is normal not to develop. At present, the per capita GDP of Chinese is not high, and it is still a very poor country, so there are opportunities for development in many fields. Of course, the next key thing for Japan is to change its mentality, not to look at problems as a developing country, but to get used to the fact that it is difficult for the aggregate economy to grow, to lower its goals and mentality, and to avoid setting some unrealistic goals. ”

In fact, many people think that China is similar to Japan...... But in reality, it's not quite the same. Japan's per capita GDP surpassed that of the United States before it came to a standstill. Moreover, Japan has a population of just over 100 million.

China's situation is unprecedented in history, with a country of more than 1 billion people continuing to grow at a high speed. It is difficult to estimate GDP per capita to surpass that of the United States. But if the growth trend can be maintained, even if the speed gradually comes down, don't stagnate!

Then, to the extent that the per capita GDP reaches half of the per capita GDP of the United States, that is, the per capita GDP of 30,000 US dollars, the total GDP can also reach 40 trillion US dollars, which is more than double the total GDP of the United States.

Relatively speaking, when the per capita GDP of Chinese is relatively low, the growth potential still exists. Mining per capita efficiency can still continue to eat a wave of growth dividends.

Since the 90s, Japan's economy, stock market, and real estate have stagnated for a long time, except that the United States has shackled Japan, and Japan is not allowed to continue to eat more high-end industries, which poses a competitive threat to the high-end industries of the United States. In addition, Japan's own per capita GDP is already very high. It is difficult to increase GDP per capita, so the economy as a whole has peaked.

And with the copying of the Japanese side, many of Lin Qi's views have gradually had a greater impact on the development of the domestic economy.

After all, a bunch of economic experts at home and abroad can only have a certain economic phenomenon, and then use the dogma of books to set it, and their thinking ability is very low. Not only the foresight of emerging industries and new technologies, but even the long-term view of the economy, are wavering, and it is difficult to have some reliable statements.

Lin Qi's point of view is very clear, and he is not just a mouthful, but also can really make amazing results according to his own ideas!