Chapter 229: See through the hole cards

On September 26, 1983, the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar fell below the lowest point of 1 US dollar to 10 Hong Kong dollars on that day, and then rebounded sharply, and the exchange rate stabilized between 8.1 Hong Kong dollars and 8.8 Hong Kong dollars per dollar.

Of course, the problem is that most foreign investors are still in a wait-and-see mode, refusing to accept the Hong Kong dollar. Therefore, the implementation of the linked exchange rate system is essentially a system to determine the risk of sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar when the exchange rate is stable5.

If we really consider the current trading price in the foreign exchange market, the linked exchange rate between the Hong Kong dollar and the US dollar should be a value between 8.1~8.8. But. How to fix the exchange rate depends on this, and the entire Hong Kong bank, including HSBC, will suffer huge losses. Therefore, the exchange rate between the Hong Kong dollar and the US dollar should be a little higher than the current market trading price.

On October 15, after continuous negotiations between the Hong Kong government and representatives of Hong Kong financial institutions and large enterprises, of course, the voice of banks, especially large banks such as HSBC, Standard Chartered and Bank of China, exceeded that of other institutions. After that, the Hong Kong government officially announced a new exchange rate regime - abolishing the floating exchange rate system implemented in '74 and reinstating the linked exchange rate system pegged to the US dollar. Under the new Linked Exchange Rate System, the exchange rate between the US dollar and the Hong Kong dollar is fixed at HK$7.8 per US$1, and when issuing Hong Kong dollars, note-issuing banks are required to pay US dollars to the Exchange Fund established by the Government at a fixed exchange rate as a reserve for the issuance of Hong Kong dollars, and the Exchange Fund issues certificates of indebtedness agreeing to issue Hong Kong dollars to the note-issuing banks. In the event that the Hong Kong dollar is withdrawn from circulation, the note-issuing bank will return the Certificate of Indebtedness to the Exchange Fund and then withdraw the equivalent amount of US dollars. Other financial institutions, if they want to exchange and settle between US dollars and Hong Kong dollars, need to open an account with the note-issuing bank, which is also implemented at a fixed exchange rate of 7.8 Hong Kong dollars per US dollar.

At present, the main note-issuing banks in Hong Kong are HSBC and Standard Chartered, and the Bank of China Hong Kong did not become the third note-issuing bank until 94. After all, the banknote issuance business does not seem to be profitable, and it does not earn a penny of interest, but instead occupies foreign exchange funds. However, in reality, it is impossible to recover 100% of the Hong Kong dollars issued, and the loss of Hong Kong dollar notes by customers is actually equivalent to the implied profit of the note-issuing bank. In addition, the issuance of banknotes is also an affirmation of strength, which can directly improve its credit, and the credit improvement will also be converted into business and income. Just imagine, every Hong Kong dollar issued has the name of a certain bank on it, and the long-term use of banknotes will naturally enhance consumers' recognition of the bank's strength and credibility.

After the establishment of the linked exchange rate system, the new entrepreneurship department is undoubtedly the big winner of this change in Hong Kong's issuance policy.

Whether it is the Hong Kong dollar depreciation dividend that began to be deployed a year ago and converted most of the company's cash into US dollars, or the Hong Kong dollar appreciation dividend since September, which has contributed a lot of profits to the company's annual profits.

At the same time, foreign institutions have gradually restored their confidence in the Hong Kong dollar and announced that they will accept Hong Kong dollar settlement.

On the one hand, because the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar is tied to the US dollar, there is no longer any worry about the fluctuation of the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar. At the same time, the issuance of the Hong Kong dollar requires 100% of the US dollar to be used as reserves, and theoretically, there is no possibility of a run on the note-issuing banks and the Exchange Fund. Therefore, through the settlement account opened by the note-issuing bank, it is theoretically possible to convert 100% of Hong Kong dollars into US dollars anytime and anywhere.

It is for this reason that the Hong Kong dollar in Hong Kong's foreign exchange market has been approaching the official exchange rate since the implementation of the Linked Exchange Rate System. After all, whether it is below 7.8 or above 7.8, there is room for risk-free arbitrage. It is precisely for this reason that whether it is the note-issuing bank or other financial institutions and enterprises, they are naturally staring at the fluctuation of the exchange rate, and once there is a deviation, there will inevitably be arbitrage funds to reduce and smooth out. This mechanism, as well as the Hong Kong dollar and the US dollar, provides tremendous liquidity.

After this wave of exchange rate turmoil, it is already very good that most of the enterprises in Hong Kong can not be damaged, and there are probably very few who want to make profits from the fire. After all, even some large banks have speculated on US dollars to hedge their risks, and in fact, few institutions can generate more income from the appreciation of US dollar assets than the loss from the depreciation of Hong Kong dollar assets.

However, the new entrepreneurship department is a very small number of low-key money-making companies, and the exchange rate has fallen and risen, which directly makes the strength of the new start-up soar, which is equivalent to contributing the profit equivalent to 82 years for a whole year.

In October, after the new venture electronics company repaid a batch of short-term loans, the credit limit of major banks for the new venture electronics increased to 3.2 billion Hong Kong dollars. The reason why this is the case is also because the major banks are well aware of the capital flow of the new venture electronics, and understand that their companies have made a lot of money in foreign exchange operations and improved their ability to repay debts.

Of course, the increase in the credit limit is not in vain, and speculation in foreign exchange has come to an end, but in terms of real estate and stocks, it is possible to continue to buy.

In particular, the real estate market has been affected by the wave of many capital fleeing and selling real estate out of Hong Kong in 83, as well as the fact that real estate developers and financial institutions have been hit hard in the past few years, and many institutions have neither the money nor the confidence to acquire land. Therefore, in the whole 83 years, the Hong Kong government's official land sales and bidding revenues were only less than 600 million Hong Kong dollars, of which the official land auction was not even 100 million yuan, the lowest record in 30 years.

However, Xinchuang Electronics Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Xinchuang Electronics Co., Ltd., has been frequently selling recently, for the official land sold by the Hong Kong government, at a low price, these auctions, Xinchuang Electronics is the only bidder, continuously sold 200 acres of commercial and residential development land, a total of 270 million Hong Kong dollars were spent, and the average per mu of land was only 1.35 million yuan, equivalent to 2,000 yuan per square meter.

Such a cheap price makes Lin Qi repeatedly call it too worthwhile! Although the company's main business is not to make a big real estate, it is a bastard to have a cheap price!

Because, the current price has fallen to the price of the early 70s, and the price increase of Hong Kong real estate in ten years has returned to the prototype. It can be said that there is no time period for property prices to be cheaper than in '83. And in 83, even Li Ka-shing was not as bold as he was in the 60s and 70s, after all, Li Chaoren became more cautious the older he was, and he was not as daring to gamble as he was when he was young.

But Lin Qi saw through the hole cards of the future and knew that this was a steady investment with 100 times huge profits, and there was no risk.

The clause on the Land Lease in the annex to the Sino-British Joint Declaration of '84 states: "From the date of entry into force of the Joint Declaration until 30 June 1997, the new land granted under paragraph 3 of this Annex shall be limited to 50 hectares per year, excluding the land granted to the Hong Kong Housing Authority for the construction of public housing for rent." ”

This clause does not restrict the use of land for the construction of public housing by the government, but in fact, under the operation of the interests of real estate developers, the construction of public housing built by the Hong Kong government has been slow, and at the same time, the annual land supply limit for real estate developers is 50 hectares, which naturally causes the supply of housing and commercial real estate in Hong Kong to be in short supply.

It is precisely because of this clause that real estate developers can almost make a steady profit without losing money, and the supply of land is scarce, and it will always be difficult to meet the demand of the market......