Chen Qiaoshan actually has no bottom in his heart, Professor Yan is a genuine economics expert, not the brick family who specializes in fooling people outside.

Of course, Chen Qiaoshan also has an advantage, it doesn't matter if he wins or loses, even if he loses, there is nothing to lose, he thinks about it, anyway, Professor Yan has long had doubts, so he simply fires it with all his power, and he may be able to get unexpected results.

Chen Qiaoshan was pondering there, and Professor Yan suddenly asked, "You don't agree with the efficient market hypothesis, so what view do you support?"

"Behavioral economics, I think this set of theories is more practical. Chen Qiaoshan didn't stumble at all, and gave the answer directly.

Professor Yan couldn't help frowning, he knew that behavioral economics, which is a non-mainstream economic view, has not been recognized by the academic community at all.

The reason why this theory is not accepted is that it over-reinforces the theory of speculation, which holds that the behavior of investors is not always rational, predictable, and fair, which distorts the cognitive concept of economics.

Professor Yan couldn't help but ask, "Who did you learn it from, could it be that any of your professors in Guanghua have studied this unpopular theory?"

Chen Qiaoshan couldn't help but sweat in his head, this Professor Yan really dared to say it, but it was not difficult to hear from the words that Professor Yan really didn't treat Guanghua very well.

Regarding Professor Yan's attitude, Chen Qiaoshan is not surprised at all.

Although behavioral economics has been around for more than 20 years, it has not been recognized by the academic community.

It wasn't until the publication of Irrational Exuberance, when Internet stocks were at their highs, that behavioral economics officially entered the attention of scholars.

Of course, one success doesn't mean anything.

A few years later, Robert Shiller gave another accurate warning before the subprime mortgage crisis.

It was only after two global financial crises that behavioral economics began to spread around the world.

……

Chen Qiaoshan knows that behavioral economics has not been introduced into China at present, and many scholars may have heard of it, but they will definitely not study this set of unpopular theories in depth.

It is no wonder that the domestic academic circles, which is also ironic, no matter where they are, different academic theories have created various opposing circles.

Robert Shearer is a good example of this, because he advocates behavioral economics, which is not allowed in the mainstream academic circles.

He lost his job one after another, and was finally accepted into Yale University, but he couldn't recruit a few students, and fell into an extremely embarrassing situation, so he could only concentrate on writing books and speaking.

As a result, after two severe economic crises, Robert Shearer quickly rose to fame, and his treatment changed dramatically.

First of all, there were many followers, and then the economic monograph under his name turned out to be a bestseller, which shocked the attention of the whole place.

Chen Qiaoshan felt a little helpless, there are still more than three years before the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, and there is no market for behavioral economics in China in a short period of time.

This is also in Peking University, and it is estimated that I can't even find the original English version of "Irrational Prosperity" in other libraries.

When Chen Qiaoshan borrowed the book from the Peking University Library, the book was still new, and he was the first reader of the book in China.

If you wait until 08, not to mention the Chinese translation, it is estimated that the original English books will be sold all over the sky.

In the face of Professor Yan's inquiry, Chen Qiaoshan did not dare to talk nonsense, although the scholastic and Guanghua may not deal with each other in private, but with Yan's qualifications, it is estimated that Li shares can be scolded when he goes to Guanghua.

Chen Qiaoshan squeezed out a very fake smile and said curtly: "I didn't learn from Guanghua's teacher, I had private contact. ”

At the end, he added another witty remark, which livened up the atmosphere by the way, "I'm self-taught!"

As soon as the words ended, the students in the classroom burst into laughter.

Yan Xiaoqin sat down and almost didn't get angry, having such an unobtrusive boyfriend, even with her felt very embarrassed.

She secretly made up her mind that she would never follow Chen Qiaoshan to the academy to study classes in the future, it was a shame.

Professor Yan's brows furrowed a little more, and he asked, "As far as I know, this set of theories has existed for a long time, right?"

Chen Qiaoshan knew that the old man was thinking about it, and hurriedly explained: "I learned it from a book. ”

"Do you know the difference between these two theories?" asked Professor Yan.

Chen Qiaoshan thought about it carefully and said: "Behavioral economics emphasizes the role of people, while the efficient market hypothesis pays more attention to economic laws. ”

Professor Yan was very surprised, but he didn't expect Chen Qiaoshan to distinguish it very clearly.

The reason why behavioral economics is not accepted by the academic community is that it integrates finance, psychology, behavior, sociology and other disciplines, and is essentially a marginal discipline where various theories intersect, and it is not economics in the real sense.

"We study economics, and all economic activities are carried out in strict accordance with the laws of the economy. Professor Yan persuaded.

Chen Qiaoshan was unmoved, and he asked rhetorically: "Professor Yan, do you think that the domestic securities market operates according to economic laws?"

Professor Yan was silent, as an economist, he was naturally familiar with the economic situation around him, and in the face of students' doubts, he couldn't open his eyes and talk nonsense, and he was a little depressed for a while.

After a moment of silence, he said: "China is an emerging economy, and its development is relatively lagging behind, so it can only be done step by step. ”

Chen Qiaoshan did not continue this topic, some things cannot be studied deeply, and it is not clear.

Professor Yan didn't give him a chance to speak, and said directly: "You talked about ST Zhongyan just now, let's continue to discuss this topic. ”

Chen Qiaoshan was stunned for a moment, but he didn't expect that Professor Yan was not going to discuss the "Tao" with him, but to discuss the case with him, which made the killer feature he prepared useless.

However, it is not surprising that when a professor debates with a student, he is inevitably suspected of bullying the small.

Professor Yan opened his mouth and ordered: "Come, open the stock chart of ST Zhongyan that you prepared." ”

Chen Qiaoshan couldn't understand what kind of medicine Professor Yan was selling in the gourd, so he had to act honestly according to his words.

Professor Yan pointed to the big screen of the projector and asked: "ST Zhongyan has no tendency to stop falling, why did you buy at this time, and why didn't you clear your position after buying it continued to fall to the limit?"

Chen Qiaoshan pondered for a moment and said: "Because the major shareholder of ST Zhongyan is Tunhe shares. His answer was simple, but the meaning was clear.

The students in the audience showed expressions that seemed to understand but did not understand, obviously not understanding.

Professor Yan explained: "The controlling shareholder of Tunhe is the largest private enterprise in China, Delong, so Chen Qiaoshan chose to hold rather than liquidate. ”

After a pause, he asked again: "Now that it is about to be delisted, Delong is not the controlling shareholder, how can you be sure that ST Zhongyan will definitely complete the asset restructuring?"

How could an economics professor not understand such a simple question, this is obviously a confusion of understanding.

Chen Qiaoshan knew that he had been pitted, and he became a template for Professor Yan's teaching.

He was very helpless, so he had to explain stubbornly: "Although Delong only holds part of the shares, with their consistently strong style of acting, asset restructuring is imperative." ”

Professor Yan smiled and nodded, and asked, "Is this the conclusion you have reached from a rational analysis?"

Chen Qiaoshan also smiled, but he still came, and he asked: "Professor Yan, do you think that Delong's completion of the absolute control of ST Zhongyan is a rational investment?"

Professor Yan was stunned, this question is really difficult to answer, and no one is sure whether ST Zhongyan's asset restructuring can be approved by the Securities Regulatory Commission.

Chen Qiaoshan didn't have so many doubts, and said: "Professor Yan, ST Zhongyan opened the limit, this is the most real reaction of the market, can you say that all buying is rational, how many people are following the trend to buy, and how many are institutional speculation?"

Professor Yan pondered for a moment and asked rhetorically, "This is the theoretical support for your insistence on behavioral economics?"

Chen Qiaoshan wants to end the current situation as soon as possible, and he doesn't want to be used as a teaching aid all the time.

"Yes, investors are never rational, and regardless of whether Delong Group can successfully complete the asset restructuring, ST Zhongyan's share price will rise in the near future. ”

"So, you're not sure if ST Zhongyan can complete the asset restructuring?"

Chen Qiaoshan gave a categorical answer: "No, ST Zhongyan will not be delisted, and it will definitely be able to complete the asset restructuring." ”

After thinking about it, he said: "Investment should not only consider the market background, but also take into account the law of decision-making, the value of stocks depends not only on the actual benefits of the enterprise, but also on the behavior of investors." ”

Professor Yan asked, "So, according to the theory of behavioral investing, ordinary shareholders can determine the level of stock price?"

When the students in the audience heard Professor Yan's question, they immediately burst into laughter, and Xiaosan decided to stock the price.

Chen Qiaoshan listened to the laughter from the audience, and felt a little unhappy in his heart, these so-called pride of heaven are nothing more than that.

Professor Yan's face became a little ugly, and he was a little annoyed for a while, this is a very serious theoretical confrontation, what's so funny?

Although he did not have an in-depth understanding, it is not difficult to see from Chen Qiaoshan's explanation that the theory of behavioral economics is undoubtedly more suitable for the price fluctuations of the domestic securities market.

Professor Yan would love to hear Chen's explanation.

"Most stock prices do not match their actual value, because ordinary small shareholders have an obvious herd mentality, and it is not institutional investors who really determine the ups and downs of the stock market. ”

After a pause, Chen continued: "Although the value of shares held by ordinary corporate and institutional investors exceeds two-thirds of the total market capitalization of the stock market, the liquidity is very poor, and retail investors account for more than 80% of the total trading volume. ”

Chen Qiaoshan is a little weak-minded, and in order to demonstrate behavioral economics, he accidentally took out the retail investor drive theory in advance.

Fortunately, this is not a profound knowledge, but no one has studied it yet.

In the securities market, retail investors generally have the mentality of following the trend, which is explained in economic terms as "risk aversion", which also proves that the efficient market hypothesis is invalid. ”

Professor Yan suddenly interjected and asked, "You have also studied delayed behavior and fairness theory?"

Chen Qiaoshan was stunned for a while, pretending to be too coerced.

He doesn't know any theories of delayed behavior and fairness, but he thinks it's probably the "risk aversion" to provoke.

Chen Qiaoshan is a little weak-hearted, this word is learned from the English of the finance major.

He didn't understand it at first, but later figured out that "risk aversion" was almost the cause of investors following the trend.

He took it out on a whim to fill his face, but he didn't expect it to attract Professor Yan's attention, which was not a good thing.

Chen Qiaoshan sneered: "I know a little about fur, and I can't talk about research." He was really afraid that Professor Yan would suddenly throw out a related question, and he would be exposed.

Thinking of this, he preemptively said: "The trading volume of A-shares is basically supported by retail investors, and it is impossible for retail investors to invest rationally, so it is difficult for the stock market to apply the efficient market hypothesis." ”

Chen Qiaoshan ended the topic very simply, he didn't want to continue, if he didn't do it, he would drop the chain, and it would be a big deal.

Professor Yan pondered for a moment and asked, "You learned all this privately?"

Chen Qiaoshan nodded hurriedly, he didn't want to be regarded as a freak, so he simply took the book "Irrational Prosperity", "Many opinions are from this book. ”

Professor Yan took it and looked at it, and whispered, "Irrational prosperity. ”

Chen Qiaoshan had an attack of obsessive-compulsive disorder and couldn't help but correct: "I think it's better to translate it into irrational prosperity." ”

Professor Yan nodded, "Yes, irrational exuberance, this translation is very apt. ”

After a pause, he said to himself: "This term was first coined by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan in a speech in '96. ”

Chen Qiaoshan secretly sighed, he really deserved to be a professor, and he even knew the origin of an economic term he met by chance, and he couldn't help but sigh very much, this is a real scholar.

Professor Yan fell silent for a while, and then asked, "I'm not surprised that you can find out about Delong's problem now, the key is why do you want to make your discovery public?"

Chen Qiaoshan suddenly felt that the sky was thundering, what was the situation?

He knew that the last time he was in Yannan Garden, Professor Yan was suspicious of himself, and he didn't expect to ask in this public place.

Although Professor Yan recognized his level of economics, which was a good result, Chen Qiaoshan could not admit that he was speculating and making money.

He couldn't think of a plausible reason for a while, and he was worried when he suddenly saw the book "Irrational Prosperity".

His heart moved, so he directly took it and flipped through it to find it.

Soon, Chen Qiaoshan found a paragraph in the preface, and he pointed to the preface and handed the book over.

Professor Yan stared at the English passage and remained silent.

Everyone in the audience was surprised, they didn't know what dumb riddles the two were playing, and the atmosphere was a little depressing for a while.

Neither of the two people on the stage spoke, and after a long time, Professor Yan said inexplicably: "The Delong system seems to be irrational." ”

After speaking, he stared at Chen Qiaoshan with strange eyes for a long time before he said in a deep voice: "Chen Qiaoshan, you are the most talented student I have ever met, I hope you can put your mind on the right path." ”

Chen Qiaoshan was very embarrassed, he could feel that Professor Yan did not believe his words, or rather, the old man saw through his intentions.

Everyone in the audience was stunned, and they didn't know what was going on between the two of them.

They all stared at Chen Qiaoshan with strange eyes, wondering what talent he had that deserved to be valued so much by Professor Yan.

……

The Q&A between the professors and the students continued, and the class was not over, but everyone felt that it was difficult.

Fortunately, the remaining time was not long, and the class ended soon, Professor Yan didn't stay long, picked up the lesson plan and left.

Chen Qiaoshan was also about to slip away, and as soon as he cleaned up, he was stopped by someone.

"Chen Qiaoshan, what did you show Professor Yan just now?" The voice was very familiar, it was Wang Feng, who had just been defeated.

Chen Qiaoshan turned to look at him, raised the "Irrational Prosperity" in his hand, and said, "Senior Brother Wang, the answer is in this book. ”

He didn't mean to be pretentious, but he just thought that it would be good for the students of the School of Economics to learn about behavioral economics as well.

It's a pity that most people thought he was selling Guanzi and looked down on him, but Chen Qiaoshan didn't care, and followed Yan Xiaoqin out of the teaching building of the academy quickly.

Walking to no one's place, Yan Xiaoqin asked curiously, "What did you show Professor Yan, he seemed to be very unhappy?"

Chen Qiaoshan said with a smile: "He's not unhappy, he's just torturing the conscience of the scholar!"

Yan Xiaoqin rolled his eyes and said angrily: "Don't sell it, tell me quickly, what did you show Professor Yan?"

Chen Qiaoshan didn't say anything, and found the preface and pointed it out to her.

Yan Xiaoqin took it casually, stared at the paragraph, and read intermittently: "Irrational investment will cause very serious social problems, and economic experts and public scholars should always be vigilant. ”

"Hey, how do you translate this insider?"

"Those in the know, can also be translated as those who know the insider!"

"Oh!" Yan Xiaoqin paused and continued: "Those who know the problem have the responsibility to inform the public in advance to avoid causing greater social problems......