The financial crisis in Xiangjiang has come to an end, but the people of Xiangjiang have not had time to rejoice, and a storm that is more closely related to them and even greater has swept in.

The property market has really collapsed.

The collapse of the property market is different from the stock market, it is not an overnight thing, and there is a certain order and time.

Many people say that when the grocery shopping aunts start to buy houses, it is a sign of a crash.

In fact, this is completely an afterthought, and it is impossible to see whether the property market will collapse from this point.

Real estate is a very complex industry, and whether it will collapse depends on many factors, but looking at the real estate market over the past century, there are at least two signals before the crash: high financial leverage and unit costs exceeding the maximum value that residents can afford.

Yes, we will not mention the complex economic logic and the root cause of the collapse here, but only the superficial signals, and when there is any signal, it means that it is about to collapse.

Whether it was the Florida Collapse in 1926, or the bursting of the Dongying bubble in 1991, or the current Xiangjiang and the United States in the future, before the collapse, they all met these two characteristics.

The so-called high financial leverage, on the one hand, refers to the financial leverage of real estate developers' financing, and on the other hand, refers to the financial leverage used by buyers to buy houses.

No matter in any country in the world, most of the real estate developers do not use their own money, but the money of banks, financial institutions, and investment and wealth management products.

But even so, the leverage ratio of each developer is different. Companies with strong self-owned funds, stable finances, and relatively prudent companies may only have a debt ratio of 30 or 40 percent, while those companies that have taken relatively large steps and made rapid progress may borrow dozens of times more money than their own funds.

The high leverage of home buyers is better understood, and the mortgage or provident fund loan that we are familiar with is part of the financial leverage.

If the buyer can make a down payment of 30% or more, and the rest of the mortgage is used to buy the house, it is not considered high leverage.

If you are afraid, you are afraid of the "second press".

"Second mortgage", as the name suggests, is a second mortgage, such as a down payment of 20% for a mortgage, but after a second mortgage, you may be able to buy a house with only a 5% down payment.

And what about the remaining 95 percent? Of course, it's all from the banks. It's the equivalent of finding several different banks and lending 95% of the money to buy a house, with a leverage ratio of 1900%.

If you count the interest, hehe, I'm afraid that 3000% won't be able to beat it.

The so-called leverage, in layman's terms, is borrowing money.

And to borrow money, you have to pay interest.

For real estate developers, borrowing with an interest rate of around 12-15% is already a very good financing cost. Many real estate developers will even raise funds at an interest rate of more than 25%, and the financing leverage is as high as 0%, so it is conceivable that if the transaction volume shrinks, these real estate developers will be the first to go bankrupt.

And for home buyers, although the mortgage interest rate is lower, they only pay a 5% down payment after all. It's fine if house prices keep rising, but if they start to fall, even if it's just 5%, they'll become negative. The bank will immediately ask the bank to make up the collateral funds, otherwise the house will be auctioned.

High leverage not only means high risk, but also means that once the crash occurs, the harm will be magnified by the leverage multiple, causing a more serious economic crisis. Economic principles are all interconnected, which is why the LTCM only lost $4 billion, and the Federal Reserve was like a great enemy, and even came to the rescue itself.

If it is only high leverage, it does not mean that it will definitely collapse, after all, in the growth stage of the property market, the leverage ratio is also very high. However, if the price of the floor unit also exceeds the affordability of the residents, the situation is very dangerous.

Before the collapse of the Toei bubble crisis, the total value of housing in the whole of Tokyo exceeded the total land in the United States, that is, if you sell Tokyo, you can buy the whole of the United States, which is obviously abnormal and beyond the limit of the purchasing power of Tokyo and even the whole of Toei.

The so-called limit of purchasing power, in the case of a mortgage, can also be understood as the limit of the ability to repay.

Taking Hong Kong as an example, the median household income in Hong Kong is now about 18,000 Hong Kong dollars. If the house price in Xiangjiang is 30,000 Hong Kong dollars per square meter, and the down payment is 20%, to buy an apartment of about 50 square meters, you need to pay a down payment of 300,000 Hong Kong dollars, and the remaining 1.2 million Hong Kong dollars will be loaned for 20 years, and according to the current mortgage interest rate of 2.5, you need to repay about 5,000 Hong Kong dollars per month.

In this way, at least at the price of 30,000 square meters, Xiangjiang people can still afford it, although the quality of life has been affected somewhat, but at least to afford this loan, the problem is not too big.

But what if the house price reaches 50,000 square meters?

In addition to the down payment of 500,000 yuan, the monthly repayment amount suddenly rose to 11,000 Hong Kong dollars! Accounting for 61 percent of the family income! Only 7,000 yuan was left to support the life of the family. If there are some minor illnesses and disasters, there may be liquidity problems in a given month.

What if it reaches 80,000 square meters? A down payment of 800,000 yuan may squeeze out the entire family's savings for decades, and the monthly repayment amount of the loan of 3.2 million yuan will be as high as 18,000 Hong Kong dollars!

At this point, ordinary families do not eat or drink every month in order to repay the loan.

Now, some areas of the Xiangjiang property market exceed 21,000 square feet, equivalent to 190,000 yuan per square meter! And these areas are not very good locations, many of them are muddy ponds in the past, and there is no investment value at all.

As a result, although there is still a small number of buyers who believe that house prices will continue to rise, most people will not be able to afford to buy if they want to, so the transaction volume will fall.

This is true for all commodities, and if the volume continues to grow, even if the price goes all the way, the risk is not very high in the short term. But if the volume starts to drop, it's time to pay attention.

In November last year, the transaction volume of new houses and second-hand houses in Xiangjiang fell by 23% year-on-year compared with the same period last year.

It seems to be only a 20% drop, but for the pressure on the property market, it is not just 20%.

Housing completions are getting higher and higher, and unless the number of transactions can continue to grow at the same rate, it means increased operational pressure for developers. Real estate is essentially a capital-intensive industry, and rapid sales collection is the lifeblood of an enterprise.

In this case, in order to sell the house as soon as possible to collect the money, the developer will inevitably lower the sales price of the newly opened real estate or use various ways to attract buyers with various gifts, which constitutes a substantial decline in housing prices.

Once housing prices do not rise, or even begin to fall, the wait-and-see posture of home buyers will be more obvious.

At this time, coupled with the high financing leverage of real estate companies and a certain proportion of "second mortgage" buyers, the market pressure has accumulated to a limit, and it may only take a match, and with a bang, the entire market will collapse again.

The Asian financial crisis is this match.

In just five months, the Xiangjiang property market has experienced several stages of "soaring housing prices", "difficult to find a house", and "there is no market for prices", and in the first two months, even if housing prices are still rising, the shrinking trend of transaction volume has been very obvious.

The shrinking transaction volume has brought the collapsing housing market into a new stage of "big waves and sand".

When the market is good, large and small real estate companies can mix in it, and every company can make money, and now that the tide is receding, you can see who is not wearing swimming trunks.

"Luo Sheng, today the people from the Bank of East Asia came to collect the money again and asked us when the loan of 12 million yuan would be paid off. ”

"Luo Sheng, Puli Financial just called, saying that the loan of 6.5 million yuan can't be delayed any longer, and Sausage Chen wants to talk to you in person. ”

"Luo Sheng, Uncle Guang of Pucun has been waiting for you for a day, saying that if we don't give them compensation, he will call the villagers to make trouble, what do you think?"

"Luo Sheng... ”

Luo Zhaohui waved his hand impatiently to the secretary: "Get out, let them all get out!" Tell the Bank of East Asia that the money is not due yet, and not a dime will be lost to them when it is due. ”

"Hahaha, the prodigy Hui deserves to be a prodigy Hui, and he can still be so confident at this time. A voice rang out from the office door.

Luo Zhaohui looked up, and said with a smile: "Why did Chairman Chen come to me so freely today?"

A middle-aged man in his early forties walked into Luo Zhaohui's office with a follower, Shi Shiran: "After all, Dexiang is a company that I have been doing for more than ten years, and I am very emotional. How about it? Luo Dong, if I don't have money recently, I don't mind buying Dexiang back. ”

Luo Zhaohui's heart moved, and he immediately put on a lazy attitude: "My financial situation is okay recently, but I don't mind the Xiangjiang Shell King getting a piece of the pie, what are the conditions for Chairman Chen?"

This polite middle-aged man is Chen Guoqiang, the famous shell king of the Xiangjiang stock market. Luo Zhaohui's acquisition of ITC Real Estate half a year ago was bought from him. Luo Zhaohui took control of this listed company of Xiangjiang Real Estate with 30% of the shares, which was very sensational news at the time.

Now Luo Zhaohui is struggling, and if Chen Guoqiang's bid is right, he doesn't mind selling Dexiang back to the Xiangjiang shell king.

Chen Guoqiang smiled: "Three hundred million, how about it?"

Luo Zhaohui smiled: "300 million? When you bought it from me half a year ago, it was still 560 million, right? Do you want to buy it back now for 300 million? Or do you only want to buy 20 percent of the shares?"

Chen Guoqiang didn't think it was angry, and shook his head slightly: "What I said is that all 30 percent of Dexiang shares and 32 percent of Dongfanghong in your hands, I will eat them all and give you 300 million." ”

Luo Zhaohui was furious: "Are you stupid or am I stupid? 300 million? Do you still want Dongfanghong to dream?"

Chen Guoqiang smiled: "Luo Sheng, Ming people don't say secret words, with the current situation of Dexiang and Dongfanghong, I can get this price, it's already for the sake of you and I who have known each other for many years, apart from me, can you still find someone to take over?"

Luo Zhaohui laughed: "Looking for someone to take over? Chen Dong, are you crazy? Angela, send off, I don't know like a madman." ”

Chen Guoqiang was stunned, he originally thought that under the current situation, Luo Zhaohui should look around like an ant on a hot pot to find a pick-up man, it was a good opportunity to buy the bottom, and he could take Dexiang and Dongfanghong into the shop. But now, it seems, he is not in such a hurry?

Could it be that he is acting?

No, not really.

It seems that he has to recalculate his chips.

Chen Guoqiang left ITC Real Estate with a stomach full of questions, and as soon as he went out, his mobile phone rang.

"Li Dashao, it's me, what's the order?" Chen Guoqiang looked at the number and hurriedly picked up the phone. The other party is the prince of Changshi, and 90% of his business comes from Changshi, so how can he be lazy.

Li Entai said politely on the phone: "Charles, let me ask you, do you want to buy the bottom from Luo Zhaohui recently?"

Chen Guoqiang's heart jumped, "I have this plan and am in contact." ”

Li Entai said categorically: "Dexiang and Dongfanghong, don't move yet, withdraw from it." ”

Chen Guoqiang was surprised, Li Entai didn't let himself move Dexiang? What is the reason for this? Could it be that Cheung Kong has ideas about Dexiang Real Estate? No, Cheung Kong and Hutchison themselves are selling real estate assets, how could they buy such a real estate company as Dexiang?

"Okay, Li Dashao, I understand. Is Changshi interested in Dexiang? I still have some old departments in Dexiang, maybe I can help. "Chen Guoqiang can use more than ten years to change from a small package foreman to a billion-dollar Xiangjiang shell king, all relying on the support of the Li family.

Li Entai smiled: "Don't ask so much, in short, Dexiang is not that simple, that's all." ”

After that, Li Entai hung up the phone, took out another mobile phone and dialed Zhang Chen: "Okay, ITC will not continue to make the next move against Dexiang and Dongfanghong, the rest is up to you." ”

Zhang Chen smiled and said, "Thank you, Victor, I'll invite you to dinner when you come to Xiangjiang." ”

"Action. Hanging up the phone, Zhang Chen gently instructed, it's time to solve Luo Zhaohui's trouble.

"Xiao Luo, why hasn't the money arrived in Kwai Chung yet, and do you want me to call you in person to urge you?" Liu Yuci held up the phone and said dissatisfied.

Luo Zhaohui smiled and said, "Big man, don't worry, I'm asking William to transfer money." After that, Luo Zhaohui covered the microphone and said, "William, did you send the 73 million to Hua Renhui?"

After calling a few times, he didn't hear William Wang's reply, Luo Zhaohui scolded a few times, and said to Liu Yuci on the phone: "Big guy, wait a minute, don't hang up the phone." After that, he walked out of his office and saw William Wang holding up the phone and wiping his sweat.

"William, what's the matter? Why hasn't that money been remitted to the Chinese yet?" Luo Zhaohui pressed the pressure spring of William Wang's phone and said angrily.

William Wang was taken aback, "Old, boss... Remittance, remittance can't be passed. ”

Luo Zhaohui's eyebrows were upside down: "Why can't you send it back?"

William Wang was about to cry: "I was communicating with HSBC just now, and our account was blocked!"

"The account has been blocked?" Luo Zhaohui snorted in his head, "What's the matter? How could our account be blocked?"

"HSBC said it froze our accounts at the request of creditors. William Wang held a handkerchief and kept wiping his sweat, "Now all seven of our accounts have been frozen." ”

"Who is the creditor?" Luo Zhaohui grabbed William Wang's collar and yelled loudly.

"Star, Spark Investment. William Wang stammered.

Luo Zhaohui's mind was full of question marks: "Xinghuo Investment? I have never heard of this company! How can he be our creditor?"

William Wang said: "Chen and Chen Jinping transferred all their 400 million Hong Kong dollars of creditor's rights to this company, so they are now our largest creditors." ”

Luo Zhaohui's heart was about to pop out: "Chen Jinping, what is the origin of this Spark investment, and who is the boss?"

William Wang shrunk his neck, his lips moved, and under Luo Zhaohui's powerful momentum, he said with difficulty: "G, Zhang Chen." ”