On the first day of Huaan's entry into the market, the trading volume of the Hong Kong stock market exceeded 20 billion Hong Kong dollars, of which 6 billion Hong Kong dollars came from Huaan.

As of the close of the day, the Hang Seng Index soared 328 points from a low of 6102 points to close at 6430 points.

The next day, November 21, was the last trading day of the week, and the offensive and defensive sides increased their firepower. International speculators, led by Druckenmiller and Julian Robertson, frantically borrowed Hong Kong dollars in the market while conducting double short selling in the spot and forward foreign exchange markets. On the other hand, by selling Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index market was slammed.

Under the command of Michael Barry, Huaan ate a big blue chip of 9 billion Hong Kong dollars, and under the effect of the market, it raised the Hang Seng finger by 237 points to close at 6667 points.

The top floor of the 70th floor of the Bank of China Tower, the seven-story hall.

As a resident of Xiangjiang, I personally realized how reassuring it is to have the motherland to rely on, this glass of wine, I did it first. Zeng Xinquan held a small cup of Maotai, tilted his neck, and poured it into his throat.

I didn't drink red wine today, I drank white wine. This is the first time Wen Hangsheng has drunk white wine since he came to Hong Kong, and he has drunk red wine on all social occasions before.

But this time, in order to take care of the habits of Wen Hangsheng and others, Zeng Xinquan and Ren Zhigang and other financial bigwigs actually took the initiative to drink liquor.

Wen Hangsheng sighed secretly in his heart, it seems that no matter where you go, you must show your strength and value, and others will begin to truly respect you.

The market will be closed tomorrow, Saturday and Sunday, although it is also necessary to beware of foreign exchange trading in some areas (not all areas are closed on Saturdays and Sundays, strictly speaking, the foreign exchange market is almost all year round, and it is the market traders who are resting. Ordinary investors cannot trade on Saturdays and Sundays due to market traders and bank breaks, but in some parts of the Middle East, the foreign exchange market is trading as usual. But the pressure is much less after all.

Moreover, the battle situation of these two days is indeed exciting. Zeng Xinquan and Ren Zhigang didn't expect that Hua'an's offensive was so ruthless, although Hua'an City can be simply understood as buying, buying, buying, but what to buy, how to buy, how much to buy, these all reflect the level of a trading team.

Top level, absolute top level. What makes them puzzled is that there are very few trading teams of this level, even in Xiangjiang. Occasionally, there are a few traders who are superb, and they are all regarded as treasures by major brokerages and investment companies by various means, and they are kept secret. It has not been a few years since the establishment of the mainland's financial market, how did it cultivate such a team?

There are more than one billion people in the mainland, and sure enough, there is a hidden dragon and a crouching tiger.

With Zhang Chen beside him, Wen Hangsheng was reluctant to take credit, and just wanted to speak, he saw Zhang Chen shake his head slightly, and changed his words: "The main thing is that all walks of life in Xiangjiang unite under the call of Chief Tong to resist foreign insults, so that we can achieve some temporary victories." The most important thing is that the blood of the compatriots on both sides of the strait is thicker than water, and if there is a problem in Xiangjiang, it is incumbent on the mainland to provide support, and these are all things that Hua'an should do. What's more, I also received help from patriotic people like Mr. Zhang, Mr. Li, and Mr. Zheng, especially Mr. Zhang, who gave Huaan a great help as a special adviser. Director Zeng praised falsely, and he really deserved it. ”

In the end, Wen Hangsheng still mentioned Zhang Chen, the sedan chair carries people, and saying good things is the lowest cost way to communicate.

Ren Zhigang shook his head and said: "No, Hua'an can enter the market at this time, which has boosted the confidence of Hong Kong people, and it is not wrong to say that he will turn the tide." Mr. Yang came to Xiangjiang three times to cheer everyone up, which shows that the mainland's attention and support for Xiangjiang is not an empty word, and I believe that after this crisis, the two places will be more closely connected, and the good will be great. ”

This is really to Wen Hangsheng's heart, saving the Xiangjiang crisis is certainly a great achievement, but compared with the credit for maintaining the unity of the motherland and national unity, this credit is really nothing.

Wen Hangsheng's face was full of red light, his smiling mouth couldn't be closed, and he swept away, but he saw Zhang Chen thoughtful.

"Mr. Zhang, I salute you for this glass of wine. Wen Hangsheng picked up his wine glass and joked, "You are a great hero, I am starting to get nervous with such a sad face." ”

Zeng Xinquan and Ren Zhigang glanced at each other, and there was some surprise in their eyes.

This is the second time that Wen Hangsheng has mentioned that Zhang Chen is a great hero, Zeng Xinquan knows that it was Zhang Chen who was the first to accurately predict the emergence of the Southeast Asian financial crisis and the countermeasures, and he also knows that the mainland's high-level officials attach great importance to the opinions of this young man.

Looking at Wen Hangsheng's attitude towards Zhang Chen, both of them had a faint feeling that Zhang Chen was the real decision-maker.

But he's only a special adviser after all, and he's only a young man under the age of twenty!

Could there be any other reason for this?

Zhang Chen smiled and picked up the wine glass for a moment: "Actually, I'm thinking, what is the aftermath of Druckenmiller and Julian Robertson, and what will I do next if I were them." ”

Zeng Xinquan was very interested, picked up a wet towel and wiped his hands: "Oh, Zack has a good idea, why don't you say it for all of us to refer to?"

Zhang Chen thoughtfully: "At yesterday's analysis meeting, Director Ren was also there, and Huaan's analysis team has calculated that the cost line of international speculators in November should be about 7,350 points." That is to say, if they deliver fairy, each short order can still earn about 34,000 Hong Kong dollars, and we estimate that they will have 80,000 short orders due in November, that is, if they choose to deliver now, they can get 2.7 billion Hong Kong dollars. ”

But we all know that both Druckenmiller and Julian Robertson have invested unprecedented costs and efforts in Xiangjiang, and they are destined to be unable to be satisfied with just such a small benefit. Zhang Chen pondered, "Therefore, their delivery period this month can only be the last trading day, that is, the 28th." During the week, they will definitely do everything in their power to suppress the stock index. ”

Ren Zhigang nodded: "Yes, this is consistent with the analysis of the HKMA. But the total amount of chips in the market is limited, and the probability that they want to smash the Hang Seng Index to 6,500 points in a week is very low. The HKMA will not raise interest rates this week, no matter how stressful it is, and I can guarantee that. ”

Zhang Chen stroked his chin with his hand: "Really, but what if they empty the foreign reserve within a week?"

"How is it possible to empty foreign reserves within a week?" Ren Zhigang said with a smile, "Now Xiangjiang's foreign exchange reserves are as high as 53 billion US dollars, and even if the Quantum Fund and the Tiger Fund take out all the funds, it is impossible to empty the foreign reserves within a week." ”

Previously, what the Hong Kong government was worried about was that international speculators would use ants to move and eat away at Hong Kong's foreign exchange reserves little by little. And it is true, in half a year, Xiangjiang's foreign exchange reserves fell by 30 billion. Even if Xiangjiang is rich, it can't help this group of hungry wolves to use Xiangjiang as a free ATM.

After all, investors hate risks, and after the risk of Hong Kong dollars increases, there will naturally be more US dollars.

In this way, within a year and a half, there is a real possibility that Xiangjiang's external reserves will be exhausted, and then Xiangjiang will have to abandon the linked exchange rate system and let others slaughter it.

But to say that the external reserves were shorted within a week would be a bit of nonsense.

Zhang Chen's eyes flashed: "Of course they can't do it on their own, but what if there is a run?"

Run?

It's just two words, but it's the biggest nightmare for all bankers and financial authorities.

There are very few banks that have seen a run on the bank in history, and few of them have a good end, even if they survive, they will be greatly damaged, and they will not be able to change it in more than ten years. And as for the government that has seen a run ...

Hehe.

You must know that just counting M0, there are 330 billion Hong Kong dollars in cash circulating in the hands of ordinary people. If it is just this number, it may not be nothing, but if you add M2 of deposits, the total amount of Hong Kong currency is as high as 6.3 trillion Hong Kong dollars, more than 20 times that of M0!

And Xiangjiang's current foreign exchange reserves are only 50 billion US dollars, and the reserve ratio is less than 10%, which means that as long as one in ten people believes the rumors of a run, there will really be a run!

And if there is a run, it will be almost a dead end for Xiangjiang!

Even if the mainland's current $140 billion is put in, it will not be enough for the people of Xiangjiang to change.

"If I were Druckenmiller, yesterday, I would have been ready, on the one hand, through the foreign media to build momentum, on the other hand, to buy off the local media and some idle people, to spread rumors, now the people of Xiangjiang are somewhat frightened by the mentality of birds, a little agitation, can roll up a lot of momentum. As long as there are enough people responding, ordinary citizens who are watching will quickly follow up and queue up for a run. Even if it can't be shorted, it can force the HKMA to raise interest rates or take restrictive measures. No, as long as the run is carried out, Hong Kong stocks will inevitably collapse, and there is no need to really short. Huaan is difficult to support alone, and as soon as the delivery period of this month arrives, their profits for this month will be successfully pocketed. ”

"It's more than that. Zhang Chen's eyes flickered, "At this time, the confidence of Xiangjiang shareholders has fallen to the bottom, and the December futures index will inevitably be lower, and they can even transfer a part of the short orders to December, and continue to suppress the Hang Seng Index, at this time, due to the profits in November, the chips in their hands will be more abundant, and when the time comes, Xiangjiang's foreign reserves will be really in an emergency, and the linked exchange rate system can only collapse! They can reap a large amount of profits from the short orders in the forward foreign exchange market!"

There was silence at the dinner table, and there was a look of fear in everyone's eyes.

They are all elites in the industry, and they know that Zhang Chen is not alarmist, and if there is a run, the consequences will be unimaginable.

The Continental Bank of Illinois is a very typical example, and the Continental Bank used to be the seventh largest bank in the United States and the largest bank in terms of cash volume.

In '84, the company, which had relatively good fundamentals, suffered a small crisis, when the borrower, Grace Plaza, went bankrupt and implicated the Continental Bank. Although the loss of the mainland bank is a bit large, this amount of money is not a big problem for the mainland bank with strong capital, and it can be withdrawn as a bad debt.

But at this time, I don't know where the rumors came from that the loan amount of Baoen Plaza was 60 percent of that of the mainland bank, and for a while, panic spread, the mainland bank was run, and in just one month, the cash reserves of 10 billion US dollars were wiped out, and the mainland bank could only go bankrupt.

Now the means of exchange are much more advanced than in the 80s, and almost all banks in Hong Kong can exchange US dollars, which is much more efficient than queuing up in one bank, and it is not impossible for foreign reserves to be emptied within a week.

"This 。。。。。。 It's a bit exaggerated. Wen Hangsheng hesitated, "At least the chance of it happening is not great." ”

"No!" Zeng Xinquan stood up, "Even if it's a one-percent risk, if it happens, it's one hundred percent." I'm sorry, Zack, Mr. Wen, I'm going to go first, to the outline, you contact Michelle, I'll go to the chief executive to report now, we must be prepared for emergencies. ”

As soon as Ren Zhigang got up, Zhang Chen smiled and said, "Donald, I have a plan here, would you like to hear it?"

Three thousand five hundred words。。。。。。

(End of chapter)