"The ......" Orange moved his legs, which were standing a little sore, and couldn't help asking:

"Let's ...... Why don't you go playing?"

"It's not time yet, little girl. ”

Sir Shakolos lay in her arms, and replied mysteriously, as always, in a half-smiling tone.

Orange's two arms that held him were completely numb by his weight, and it felt like standing outside the temple house with a bucket after being late for school.

It's been two hours, and it's been two hours since they entered the "Casi-Joon". The white cat in her arms kept her standing still, but she stared closely at the slot machines not far away, and the players sitting in front of them, without saying a word, not knowing what she was doing.

"Do you know what I'm doing, little girl?"

At this time, the white cat suddenly asked.

"Uh...... Don't know?" Orange shook his head.

"I'm observing. ”

Yes, you're observing, so what?

"Observation is only the first step to victory. He continued, "If you do it and do it well, you may not win." But if you don't even take this first step, you won't even be eligible to play. The young lads would go into the ring with their eyes blazing, and then they would be beaten on the head and bled out. Only by repeating this will they gradually learn to slow down, observe the enemy, and think twice. ”

"I was able to get a lot of useful information from observation. ”

"For example, there are a total of ten kinds of graphics in the slot machines in this store: red asters, blue asters, green asters, P-points, circle nine, oil depots, white Ze balls, yin and yang jade, Gangenir, number seven, and you can win the lottery if you make up three of the same figures. ”

"There is no monetary reward for the three-color aster, but you can draw it again for free, the prize for three P points is 3 yuan, the three circle nine is 9 yuan, the oil depot is 10 yuan, Bai Zeqiu is 25, the yin and yang jade is 50, the Gangnir is 99, and the three number seven is the biggest prize, a total of 777 yuan. ”

"Hmm...... Hmmm......"

The orange cat pricked up her ears and listened carefully to the little lesson given to her by the white cat teacher, and by the way, she thought about this musty girl named "Shion" (at least, her cartoon image in the slot machine is like this), what kind of holiday did she have with the owner of this shop, and she would be made into the most rubbish award, and there were three.

"Let's say these slot machines are 'fair' machines, i.e. they have an equal probability of appearing and have not been artificially regulated...... No, I shouldn't have said that. "Because, even in absolute fairness, it is impossible for such a machine to make its owner lose money." ”

"The so-called 'gambling' is a psychological game for the gamblers on the stage, and for the bookmakers on the stage, it is just a game of pure probability. ”

"I'll give you a simple example, flip a coin. With equal weight on both sides of the coin, the probability of winning either side is 50%, and no matter which side you bet on, there is no way to win consistently, only luck. ”

"However, if there is a coin of slightly unequal weight, there is a 49% probability that it will be heads up and tails up is 51%. In this case, the dealer only needs to bet on tails without brains. This 1% probability is 1 win in 100 times, 10 times in 1000 times, 100 times in 1000 times, 100 times in 1000 times, without any cost, 100 net earnings. In the short term, the probability of both sides of the front and back will not be too regular, and it is not impossible for heads to surpass tails. But if the time is prolonged, the frequency is increased, and the coin is thrown down thousands of times and continuously, the probability of heads and tails will become more and more stable, closer and closer to 49% and 51%, and the dealer will be less and less likely to lose. ”

"That's the terrible thing about probability. Sir Shakolos shook his long tail from side to side, his eyes sharpening and sharpening, "In probability, the slightest difference multiplied by a huge cardinal number will yield an astonishing result. ”

This is why people "gamble for a long time and lose it", assuming that your win rate is only 49%, then naturally, the more you play, the more net losses you have. But people are creatures, and the more they lose, the more they want to play. Because they will always have a kind of "win next time" luck mentality, and a kind of "now you can't get back what you lost". To put it bluntly, it's just 'naïve' and 'greedy'. People who are innocent and not greedy are lovely, people who are greedy and not naïve are cunning, and people who are greedy and naïve are the majority of people in this world - they are stupid. ”

They couldn't see clearly that in this quagmire called "gambling", only the dealer himself, and a few lucky people who had tasted it were too late, could make money, and the rest, the farther they went, the deeper they sank, and the more they could not extricate themselves, and they could only drown in despair...... Well, it's far away......"

Sir Shakolos coughed slightly, like an old pedant. Teacher Huiyin at Terakoya only teaches the most basic arithmetic, and Orange has never listened to the class properly, so she is basically confused now. She scratched the little brain that lacked knowledge, and slowly spit out a sentence that she thought was the conclusion:

"So...... Gambling is wrong...... Right?"

"Nope," Sir Chakolos shook his head, "there is nothing wrong with 'gambling' in itself, and if you take it as a kind of money-burning entertainment, it will certainly entertain you. The fault is that someone tries to use it to change their poor and useless status quo, which will only push them into the abyss faster. ”

"Back to the slot machines," he continued, "three rows of 10 shapes, so what you can get when you pull down the lever is 10x10x10, 1000 in total." Out of 1000 combinations, only 10 of them win, so the probability of winning is 1%. ”

"And the ten combinations that won the lottery, if the free draw of the three asters is counted as 1 yuan, then the rewards for each are 1/1/1/3/9/10/25/50/99/777, and its average is 97.6, have you found a problem, orange?"

"This ...... This ......" Orange pinched his chin, squinted, thought for a while, and then his tail stood up, and he said:

"If a 1% win rate means an average of one win per 100 draws, then the average prize is 97.6...... Doesn't that mean you can never make money?"

"Na, look!" she snapped her fingers, and while roughly counting, she analyzed, "The consumption of 100 prizes is 100 yuan, and the winning lottery only won 97.6, and the cost of the lottery is greater than the income from the lottery!"

"Rough, though, close. ”

Sir Sciakros stretched out his cat's paw and gently stroked Orange's cheek with his soft ball, as if to praise his good student.

"Actually, it's a little more brutal. "The huge disparity between the first prize is 777 and the second prize is 99, which makes the 'average' figure very confusing. The average of 97.6 does not mean that you can win this number every time you win the lottery, in fact, under the probability of winning at 1%, that is, in the case of 1 in 100, even if it is a 99 second prize, it is very likely to be a loss, and you can only be considered to have made money if you draw the largest three 7s, and the probability of 777 appearing is 1 in 1,000. If you do draw 1,000 times and win 777, you will find that you have lost even more. ”

"Therefore, the only way to make money is to directly draw the 1 in 1,000 probability of 777 in the first direct draw, and then accept it when you see it, and avoid the remaining 999 times 'thank you for your patronage'. And gamblers don't have this thousandth of the luck, and they don't know how to accept it when they see it, so they can only be played by the dealer forever. As he spoke, he pointed to the man sitting in front of the slot machine in front of him:

"For example, this guy, looking at his weak appearance, I guess he even took out the money for food to gamble, right? If he doesn't win the bet today, he may die on the street tomorrow...... Well, who cares?"

"He's been sitting here for two hours, and for two hours he's been repeating three things: taking out money, throwing coins, pulling the rod. He did a total of 9 8 9 rounds of these three actions, no, now it is 990 round-trips, that is, the money he spent on this machine is 990 yuan. That's enough money for him to eat, but do you know how many times he won in these 990 gambles?"

"How many times?"

"Zero times. The white cat smiled contemptuously, "I've been staring at him, this guy hasn't won once, just looking at his back, I feel that he can't hold on." Although there are my reasons for this, but ...... Ahem...... If this can help him quit gambling, then I am doing good......"

With that, Sir Charkolos jumped out of her bosom and walked forward with graceful kitten steps.

"Come with me, little girl. As he walked forward, he turned back to Orange and said, "This unlucky guy will be the first stepping stone for the two of us to reach the top." ”

"Ah...... Okay!"

Orange hesitated, then hurriedly followed. She could not understand Sir Shakoros's last words, but she trusted his judgment.

Sir Shakolos did not find a machine to sit down like other gamblers, or stray cats who came simply to keep warm. He jumped directly into the seat of the unlucky guy who won 0 prizes in 990 draws, jumped to the slot machine in front of him, and stretched his whole body, completely blocking the screen.

By this time, Orange had already walked up, so she could see the man's face. That guy has a yellow face and thin muscles, no one is a ghost, and he lives like a zombie. His bloodshot eyes were sunken deep in their sockets, and he stared at the white cat blocking the slot screen as if he was too hungry to eat it alive.

"Where's the cat, get out!"

He roared, and reached out to pick up Sir Chakoros and throw him away, and then he was amazed to find that he could not hold the cat.

His two thin and bony arms really didn't have much strength, on the one hand, and on the other, Sir Chakolos.

Speaking of which, no one would believe that the slightly older and more handsome white cat in front of him could beat an adult Siberian tiger all over the ground in three or two strokes, and it was without fingernails. If you use your nails...... Sorry, killing rare wild animals is illegal, and he can't afford it.

After all, despite appearing to be a cat, Sir Shakolos was a real vampire, and an ancient fourth-generation vampire who had lived for thousands of years, and was the same generation as Remilia Scarlett in blood.

"I'm sorry, sir. Sir Shakolos smiled and said, "For the sake of your health, you should stop everything you have at hand at once and go to the lounge for a few glasses of hot milk." ”

The cat has spoken!

Judging by the man's expression, he must have wanted to shout, but his big mouth couldn't make a sound. For before that, Sir Chakolos had already struck a cat's paw on his stomach with a speed that his fleshy eyes could not catch, and squeezed out all the air in it.

The man's body was already brittle, and when he ate such a strong palm, even if he passed out, his neck was tilted to the side, and he collapsed on the seat. Seeing this, the orange on the side was very worried:

"I said, will your palm be too heavy? What if you kill him......

"Peace of mind!" said Sir Chakolos, licking his cat's paw twice, "I hit it with a meat ball, and it's very safe...... Probably!"

"Well, even if it's not 'that' safe, I can guarantee that the lethality rate will not exceed one in a thousand, which is much less than the probability of hitting 777 at once on this machine. ”

He laughed as he pushed the unconscious gambler from his seat and sat himself on top of it. Then, before Orange could react, he threw the only coin directly into the slot machine and quickly pulled down the lever.

"Wait...... Wait a minute!"

It was too late, and by the time the orange roared out, the patterns in the slot machine were already spinning rapidly. There is no way back, and now, she can only resign herself to fate.

"Don't be so nervous, little girl. ”

The long tail of the white cat moves leisurely, like a willow in the wind. Sir Shakolos turned his head and smiled at her, saying:

"Like I said, once you hit, you take it when you see it. Originally, this should be the only way to play a game like 'gambling'. ”