Yang Zhuping is tall, and his two standing eyebrows make his whole face not angry and arrogant. He applauded at the door and strode into the small living room.

Zhang Chen also shouted crampedly: "Hello Premier Yang." ”

Yang Zhuping pressed his hands and motioned for everyone to sit down, and he also pulled a chair at random and sat down.

Yang Zhuping sighed: "What Xiao Zhang said is good, as long as all the people are united, there is nothing to be afraid of in China! Historically, the revolutionaries of the older generation used their ingenuity and indomitable spirit to lead the Chinese people through a difficult and dangerous situation, and only then did we stand tall among the world's great powers today. We must not lose this ambition, let alone be intimidated by any force!"

Everyone nodded yes with smiling faces.

Yang Zhuping said to Zhang Chen gently: "Zhang Chen, I also listened to some of what you said just now, how likely do you think it is that financial turmoil will occur in Southeast Asia? Can it evolve into a financial crisis or even an economic crisis?"

Zhang Chen was a little nervous, among the current senior leaders, in addition to the No. 1 leader, Yang Zhuping in front of him knew the economy the most. And Yang Zhuping was also entrusted with important responsibilities by the Central Committee, although he is the vice premier, he can be said to be the person with the most actual power in Guouyuan at present.

In the face of such a person with both height and professional depth, Zhang Chen didn't dare to open his mouth, thought about it, and said cautiously: "My paper only proposes the feasibility of financial speculation, and this feasibility needs someone to operate specifically before it can become a reality. So, Premier Yang, I can't say how likely it is to actually happen. ”

Yang Zhuping waved his hand and said kindly: "I called you here today to hope that you can speak freely." After your paper was included in the internal reference, I also discussed it with several experts from the National Research Center. Everyone has different opinions, so calling you, a little expert, is here to answer our questions. ”

Zhang Chen gritted his teeth: "Okay, Premier Yang, then I'll be offended." I think the possibility of financial turmoil in Southeast Asia is almost 100 percent, and anyone with a little financial knowledge knows how big the financial risks are in Southeast Asia at the moment. The difference is that I think the current mainstream view of the world overestimates the overall resilience of Southeast Asia, and underestimates the attack power of international speculators. ”

Yang Zhuping turned sideways, "Oh?

Zhang Chen said calmly: "I have read Professor Wu's masterpiece before, and he represents the mainstream view of the current academic community. It is believed that the so-called Asian tigers such as Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia will replace the Asian tigers in ten years, and there will be a period of stable development for up to ten years. ”

"Of course, Professor Wu, as everyone, must have something to say, but all his assertions are based on the absence of external interference. At present, Thailand's foreign exchange reserves are less than 30 billion US dollars, and in June this year, in order to avoid fluctuations in Thailand's exchange rate, the Thai government used 2 billion US dollars of foreign reserves to stabilize exchange rate fluctuations. I now suspect that this year's fluctuation is a tentative attack by international speculators. After that, the flag died down, in order to accumulate more energy and make a one-hit killing attack on Thai finance. ”

"Thailand's foreign exchange reserves of less than US$30 billion are only equivalent to Thailand's foreign exchange imports for three to four months. This level of foreign exchange reserves can only meet Thailand's general external payment needs, and cannot cope with special situations at all, and the Bank of Thailand's financial macroeconomic control ability is very limited. For international speculators, it only takes less than $3 billion to short the entire Thai economy. Once the baht falls below the 28 mark, the Thai government will have no way to recover. ”

"Second, as I said, Thailand is currently linked to the US dollar. In this case, the foreign exchange market of Thailand and Southeast Asian countries is open to the whole world, without any foreign exchange control measures, just like a no... Ah, no, like a fat sheep on a fire, surrounded by butchers with butcher knives. ”

"Third, there is a serious imbalance in the structure of the external debt of Southeast Asian countries, taking Thailand as an example, Thailand's external debt has increased from $39.6 billion at the end of 1992 to $93 billion now, equivalent to 50% of GDP, and the average foreign debt of each Thai is $1,560. Short-term external debt accounts for about 45 percent of total external debt, and in order to repay this huge debt, Thailand must maintain an annual export growth rate of more than 15 percent and a continuous inflow of foreign capital. Therefore, as soon as the export growth rate drops significantly, there will be a debt crisis, triggering a financial crisis. ”

Yang Zhuping nodded slightly and said with a smile: "That is to say, no matter whether international speculators act or not, financial turmoil will occur in Southeast Asian countries sooner or later, and even evolve into a financial crisis. ”

Zhang Chen hurriedly humbled himself, he didn't want to offend Wu Jinglian, who was a national-level think tank. "No, no, Wu Lao's point of view is also very meaningful. Moreover, Wu Lao has always been the object of our younger generations in theoretical economics and comparative institutional analysis. ”

Yang Zhuping waved his hand disapprovingly: "Young people should dare to think and dare to speak, your point of view is very good, and it has enlightened our decision-makers from another angle." So, how do you think our country should respond to the financial turmoil in Southeast Asia?"

Zhang Chen saw Yang Zhuping's expectant eyes, and his heart moved: "Premier Yang, I am just a family, and you listen to it." Personally, I believe that in this financial turmoil, it is difficult for Southeast Asian countries to be immune to themselves, but the risk to China is not great. On the one hand, China implements strict foreign exchange control, and on the other hand, China's foreign exchange reserves are three times that of Thailand, and if you add Xiangjiang, it will be nearly ten times the difference. Even if the international speculators make a move, we can have enough strength to fight back. In fact, there are only two points that we need to be sure: First, if it turns into an economic crisis in Southeast Asia, it will inevitably affect China's exports, and in this case, whether we insist that the current exchange rate of the renminbi will not depreciate; second, after the Southeast Asian financial crisis, it is very likely that economic turmoil will evolve into political turmoil, and how will China deal with the unpredictable political situation? ”

"As for the second point, it is something that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Foreign Policy Research Institute need to consider, and the first point I just mentioned is that I personally prefer to insist that the renminbi does not depreciate. ”

Yang Zhuping looked at Zhang Chen with a smile and said: "At present, Southeast Asian countries are China's biggest export competitors, if there is a financial crisis, the currencies of Southeast Asian countries will depreciate sharply, which will seriously affect China's export business." ”

Zhang Chen was stunned by Yang Zhuping's gaze, and his heart was empty, but he adjusted his mentality in a blink of an eye, and said stubbornly: "Even if the export business will be affected to a certain extent in a short period of time, in the long run, I still think that the non-depreciation of the RMB will do more harm than good." ”

Yang Zhu's eyes burned: "Why?"

Zhang Chen pursed his lips and said firmly: "RMB internationalization." ”

The day before yesterday, it was just said that Xu Chaojun had a strong desire to gamble, and he was arrested yesterday for gathering a crowd to gamble。。。。。。

(End of chapter)