Zeng Xinquan also cut a slice of abalone, "The value of a piece of sea lies in whether it can create an environment where marine life can flourish, and human intervention will destroy the ecological balance." ”

Zhang Chen felt the touch of his heart melting between his lips and teeth: "But the ban does not count, sometimes human intervention is to better maintain the ecological balance." ”

Zeng Xinquan put down his chopsticks: "It seems that Zhang Sheng is a believer in Keynesianism. ”

Zhang Chen shook his head: "Not exactly, but I think that there is no 'invisible hand' (Note 1) to control the market, but the bias of all participants is guiding the direction of the market." When the market goes crooked, intervention in the market is not only important, but necessary. ”

Ren Zhigang said suddenly: "Hong Kong is an international financial center, and it can only be regulated from the economic level, and the SAR government's rash action will seriously hit the status of Hong Kong as an international financial center." ”

Zhang Chen shrugged: "The international financial center is the effect, not the cause. During the British period in Hong Kong, they also directly intervened in the foreign exchange market. The change from a floating exchange rate system to a linked exchange rate system in '83 is a precedent. Frankly, I don't care how the SAR responds. As you know, I don't have any property in Hong Kong, but I just put forward my own opinions based on my own interests. ”

Ren Zhigang had a cold face, and the effective method proposed in the plan he had previously reported to the Financial Secretary was to temporarily raise the short-term lending rate. In Zhang Chen's paper, there are many criticisms of raising the short-term lending rate, and even though he admits that Zhang Chen has some truth in what he said, he is still unhappy.

"Changing the exchange rate system is within the power of the Hong Kong government. The HKMA's direct entry into the market is to dig up the foundation of Hong Kong. Ren Zhigang said coldly.

Zeng Xinquan changed the topic: "The three-dimensional speculation proposed by Zhang Sheng is really eye-opening. I took the liberty to visit here today to discuss with Zhang Sheng whether there is any other way to resist the attack of international speculators if international speculators use this means to attack Xiangjiang except for the SAR Government's direct entry into the market. ”

Zhang Chen laughed twice: "According to my analysis, this war has two characteristics, the first is the long time. International investors, of course, now everyone knows George Soros's Quantum Fund and Julian Robertson's Tiger Fund as the main forces in the offensive against emerging markets in Asia. ”

Unlike Southeast Asian countries, Hong Kong has foreign exchange reserves of nearly US$90 billion, while the mainland's foreign exchange reserves exceed US$100 billion. If Soros uses the same tactics as they did to Southeast Asia to attack Xiangjiang, they will definitely lose, so they can only use Xiangjiang as an ATM and eat it in batches. This length of time can be up to a year. ”

"Second, although Hong Kong is strong, unlike other central banks in the world, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority mainly controls the monetary base through a standardized system in a fixed way without making trade-offs, and passively buys and sells the US dollar according to the established exchange rate level like a mechanical player with a fixed routine. In this way, it is only necessary to combine a short selling in the currency market with a short selling in the stock market. In the money market, the HKMA's catch-and-order model can be used to create liquidity constraints and trigger declines in the stock and futures markets. For every point that the Hang Seng Index falls, you can earn HK$50 per short futures contract,"

"Therefore, the main battlefield this time is not in the foreign exchange market, but in the stock market and futures market. ”

Zeng Xinquan frowned and said: "Raising interest rates will cause the Hang Seng Index to fall, which will put pressure on the exchange rate." If interest rates are not raised, the liquidity crunch will also cause the Hang Seng Index to fall, so that even if the HKMA enters the market, it will not be able to solve the liquidity problem and prevent hedge funds from looting. ”

Zhang Chen smiled and said, "What if the HKMA deposits the Hong Kong dollars it absorbs into the banking system?"

Ren Zhigang and Zeng Xinquan were in high spirits: "Deposit in the banking system?"

Zhang Chen said with a smile: "If the HKMA collects the Hong Kong dollars it absorbs, of course, it will cause liquidity tightness, but if this part of the Hong Kong dollars is packaged as a fund and deposited in the banking system such as HSBC and Bank of China, the liquidity shortage in the market will naturally be alleviated." ”

Ren Zhigang and Zeng Xinquan looked at each other, "This seems to be in violation of the HKMA's risk policy." ”

Zhang Chen shook his head: "It can't be called a violation, indeed, if the HKMA enters the market, it will be the first time to open the market in the world, but the rules are set by people, and with the current status of Xiangjiang, it should be more confident." ”

"My territory, my way!"

Zeng Xinquan was silent for a long time, "If international speculators really attack Xiangjiang, whether the HKMA enters the market is a matter of great importance, and the Hong Kong government still needs to consider many aspects." But in any case, Zhang Sheng opened up a new idea for us. The HKSAR Government intends to set up a special advisory committee, is Zhang Sheng interested in joining it?"

Zhang Chen was quite interested: "Oh, what kind of committee?"

Zeng Xinquan and Ren Zhigang looked at each other, "In order to cope with the possible crisis, the SAR is ready to invite influential people in the Hong Kong and international economic fields to form a special advisory committee to help the SAR government formulate corresponding policies and procedures." Li Chaoren, Mr. Zheng Lao, Li Sheng of New Hengji, as well as HSBC's Chairman Aldun and Loyal President Rong and other well-known economic leaders in Hong Kong will be among the special advisers. If Xiang Zhangsheng, a young man like Zhang Sheng, who has a solid academic foundation and has made great achievements in the international capital market, can join, I believe that it will be of great help to the SAR in coping with this crisis. ”

Zhang Chen thought about it for a while, and ignored Liu Yunkai, who was glaring at him: "You asked so suddenly, I haven't thought about it yet, I am also a son and daughter of China, of course I hope that the future of Xiangjiang will be better." In this way, let me think about it first, after all, I won't live in Xiangjiang for a long time, I'm afraid I won't be able to do anything. ”

Zeng Xinquan smiled: "It's okay, Zhang Sheng can think about it for a few days first, and if you are willing to join, contact me and Mr. Ren at any time." ”

After the meal, Zeng Xinquan and Ren Zhigang left separately, Zhang Chen kept Liu Yunkai, the two made another pot of tea, Liu Yunkai said: "Why didn't you agree to Zeng Xinquan's invitation just now? What a rare opportunity." ”

Zhang Chen poured Liu Yunkai a cup of tea: "Director Liu, let's not talk about this first, I want to ask, what is Kyoto's view on the crisis that Xiangjiang is about to face?"

Liu Yunkai was stunned, "Could it be that Xiangjiang will really be attacked?"

Zhang Chen nodded and said: "It should be right, the same is true of the news I got here, judging from the current market reaction, international speculators are hoarding goods, at least two billion Hong Kong dollars have been hoarded, not surprisingly, they will be able to complete the preparations this month, the crisis in Goryeo is coming too fast, in order to make up for the loss of the Goryeo market, they are bound to speed up the pace of attacking Xiangjiang." ”

Liu Yunkai knocked on the table: "What the boss means is that if Xiangjiang can't withstand it, even if it uses the mainland's foreign exchange reserves, it will win this battle, which is a matter of face and national self-confidence." ”

Zhang Chen stared at Liu Yunkai and said, "What about the specific operation? Entrust the Xiangjiang Special Economic Zone?"

Liu Yunkai nodded: "It should be right, Zhongxin and the Bank of China will come forward to directly inject capital into the HKMA, after all, their financial system is more mature and their means are more sophisticated." ”

Zhang Chen muttered: "I have a proposal, you can report to Mr. Yang and see what Kyoto means." ”

Liu Yunkai saw that Zhang Chen said so solemnly, and straightened his waist: "What is the proposal?"

Zhang Chen took a deep breath: "Take out part of the foreign reserves, set up a sovereign fund, directly participate in this currency war in Xiangjiang, and help Xiangjiang stabilize the foreign exchange market, stock market, and futures index." ”

Liu Yunkai had heard of sovereign funds, but in Liu Yunkai's view, it was too risky to let China take out foreign reserves to help Xiangjiang stabilize the market.

"No! Our foreign exchange reserves are too precious, and now there are places everywhere in the country where money is used, and in case of failure, no one can afford to take this responsibility!" Liu Yunkai said flatly.

Zhang Chen smiled slightly: "Don't worry, listen to me." There are risks, but they are not worth fearing compared to the benefits. I think that if Kyoto can directly intervene in the financial crisis in Hong Kong through the form of a sovereign wealth fund this time, and can make a difference, there will be at least three major benefits!"

Today's three watches, this is the first watch.

Note 1, The Invisible Hand: From Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations theory, Adam Smith used this term to describe that capital liberalization will automatically lead to good results, describing that the economy does not need to be regulated, and there will naturally be an invisible hand to guide the development of the economy to get better and better.

Many people regard Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations as an enlightenment textbook for economics, but in fact, in modern economics, the only remaining significance of the Wealth of Nations is only historical significance, and basically has no research value.

(End of chapter)