Zhang Chen, who returned to San Francisco, had just four weeks left to complete the exams of ten courses, which was difficult to imagine.

Fortunately, Zhang Chen's usual accumulation is enough, although he missed a few days of classes because of the complexity of everything, but after all, after being reborn, his intelligence level has been greatly improved compared to his previous life. Especially in terms of learning ability, Zhang Chen obviously felt that compared to his previous life, he learned things much faster in this life. In addition, he has already completed the exams of several courses, so he is not very stressed at this time.

Among the ten exams, the most important are two papers, one on the topic of computer science, and the other on the finance course selected by Zhang Chen.

In this article on computer science, Zhang Chen just described the future application prospects of C++ according to the script. For his financial dissertation, Zhang Chen chose the Southeast Asian monetary system and its resilience to risk as the topic of the dissertation.

According to the original history, next year, the Asian financial crisis will break out that will affect the whole world. The financial turmoil led by Soros from Thailand quickly destroyed the economic foundation of the entire Southeast Asia, and a few months later, it swept into RB South Korea and Hong Kong, forming a financial crisis in Asia as a whole.

In his previous life, Zhang Chen only knew that there was such a crisis, which was reported by newspapers and TV at the time, but he didn't understand what this crisis was all about.

But after taking Stanford's finance course, Zhang Chen initially understood why the crisis broke out in '97 from a theoretical perspective.

Thailand's financial system and financial strength are completely inverted, and since the establishment of the Bretton Woods system, Thailand has always practiced a fixed exchange rate system, directly pegging the Thai baht to the US dollar. Under such circumstances, Thailand is too eager to attract foreign investment, blindly opening up its financial market and implementing financial liberalization. As a result, a large number of financial speculators' hot money has been flooded into Thailand without control.

In order to maintain a fixed exchange rate system, as long as the foreign exchange market fluctuates, the Thai government needs to invest a small amount of foreign exchange reserves to stabilize exchange rate fluctuations, and the early external debt increases. And if international capital starts to withdraw from Thailand, Thailand, where the main debt is short- and medium-term, the financial system will collapse.

Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and even Singapore. The imperfection and fragility of the financial system combined to lead to the emergence of the Asian financial crisis. And Soros also made a lot of money in the first half of this crisis.

In the last part of the paper, Zhang Chen boldly predicted that if the International Monetary Fund (IMF) could not help Southeast Asian countries improve their ability to resist risks as soon as possible, the financial system of these countries would collapse within three years at most. At the same time, it is very likely to expand into a financial crisis in the whole of Asia or even the world.

As for whether Zhang Chen is worried that this paper will be seen and thus change history, this is completely unfounded.

In the field of economics, there are not tens of millions of papers every year, but millions of papers. And among them, there are many alarmist and predictive papers. In the early 90s, there was a huge volume of papers on financial systemic risk in Southeast Asia, many of which accurately predicted future crises. In '07 and '06, there were thousands of papers predicting a global economic crisis within two years, and in the end, it still happened that it wasn't supposed to happen.

However, from the perspective of China, since the commodification of real estate in the late 90s, there has been an argument that real estate will kidnap the economy, but what is the result? Until the second decade of the 21st century, this problem has not been resolved.

Zhang Chen did not expect to solve the problems of China's economy through one or several papers, and the reason why he wrote this paper was just to have a certain status in the academic circle.

When you have wealth, if you can achieve a certain amount of academic achievement, it means that you can hold more power in the economic field.

Therefore, Zhang Chen wrote this paper very carefully, discussing the possibility of financial crisis outbreak from the financial system, economic structure, political system and other aspects of Southeast Asia.

Zhang Chen has designed a mathematical model of his own, and after calculation, if Southeast Asian countries are not guarded, through economic leverage, only 300 million US dollars, there is a great possibility of destroying Thailand's financial system.

Of course, Zhang Chen's this is completely backwards, using the known results to deduce the reason. But in the eyes of those who read the paper, it becomes very powerful.

As an assistant professor who has just entered the faculty for only five years, Qian Yingyi has no vacation in the summer, and in addition to teaching, she also needs to review student papers. Thinking of this, Qian Yingyi felt that his head was big. You must know that the papers written by these students who have not yet grown up are full of loopholes, and they can't even start grading.

"Hehe, let's find a chance to return to China. Qian Yingyi smiled bitterly in his heart. He graduated from Tsinghua University in the early 80s, received degrees from Columbia University, Yale University, and Harvard University, and after graduating from Harvard University with a Ph.D. in economics, he came to Stanford to teach, a stay he held for six years.

Holding a bullshit summer student paper in his hand, Qian Yingyi just glanced at it a few times and threw it into the thick stack of "not passing" papers.

"Huh? This article is still a little interesting, at least there is no problem with the structure, the topic is the financial system and its risks in Southeast Asian countries, it was written by a Southeast Asian student?" Qian Ying looked at the student's name, "Chen Zhang, Chinese student? Zhang Chen?" Qian Ying patted his head one by one, by the way, it should be Zack, the founder of ICQ, who is quite famous recently.

Qian Yingyi carefully read Zhang Chen's paper and was silent.

Zhang Chen's paper, from an academic point of view, still has many flaws, but the data and data analysis given in it is very detailed, and every step of the process and inference of the conclusions drawn is also solid and reliable, which is really not like an economic paper written by a teenager.

It's just that in his paper, he predicted with a very positive attitude that a serious financial crisis would occur in Southeast Asia in the next two years, and Qian Yingyi was very interested in this.

If the 80s were the age of the Asian Tigers, then the 90s were the era of the Asian Tigers. After entering the 90s, the four Southeast Asian countries of Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia, their economies grew by leaps and bounds, and they quickly caught up and surpassed RB, South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan at a speed that was not inferior to RB, South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. In this regard, although some economists have put forward the idea of preventing systemic risks, the more mainstream view is that these four countries will enter the ranks of developed countries before most countries due to their geographical advantages and geopolitical reasons.