If international speculators move to Hong Kong, the SAR government must directly intervene, otherwise the accumulation of a century in Hong Kong is very likely to be ruined. ！”

If the SAR government directly intervenes, it will obviously be inconsistent with the status of an international financial center, and there is a suspicion of political interference in the economy, which will cause many foreign investors to lose confidence in Hong Kong!"

"Let these international speculators unscrupulously use Xiangjiang as an ATM, which will make foreign investors lose confidence!"

"If the SAR government intervenes directly, it will make the international community question the independence of Hong Kong after its return!"

"As much as $150 billion of international funds have been directly or indirectly involved in the financial turmoil in Southeast Asia, and if the SAR does not intervene, the Hong Kong economy will surely go bankrupt!"

Now that the foreign exchange market and the stock market have moved, if you don't make a decision, I'm afraid that the next one will be Xiangjiang's turn!"

。。。。。。

July '97 was indeed a very extraordinary month for Hong Kong.

Less than a week after the return to the motherland, the SAR Government has been engaged in intensive work, the most important of which is to discuss and study how to deal with the financial turmoil that has been raging in Asia for more than half a year.

The storm began at the end of last year and took only three months to defeat Thailand's economy and, at the same time, begin to radiate throughout Southeast Asia.

Originally, the people of Hong Kong were still rejoicing that although the storm was violent, Hong Kong was not affected by anything, but it only caused some panic when the storm reached Indonesia in March, causing the Hang Seng Index to drop slightly, but it was later proved to be a false alarm, and soon resumed singing and dancing.

Many people believe that the financial crisis in Southeast Asia is caused by an over-reliance on foreign investment, which mistakes the economic growth caused by investment for the improvement of national strength. Therefore, there is a general luck mentality in East Asian countries, believing that since the economic structure of East Asia is different from that of Southeast Asia, this storm will take Indonesia and the Philippines as the dividing line, and will not affect the East Asian economy.

But what happened to Goryeo makes the most optimistic people wonder: "If Xiangjiang encounters this kind of attack, will it collapse?"

The most terrible thing is that with the rout of Goryeo, Dongying, which is deeply involved in the Goryeo economy, has also been seriously dragged down, and the Nikkei Stock Average has fallen by more than 100 points in a single day.

Therefore, in the event of a similar attack, whether the SAR government will directly intervene has become the most important issue to be discussed.

Zeng Xinquan frowned, as the first Chinese Financial Secretary of Hong Kong and the first Financial Secretary of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, shouldering the livelihood of seven million people in Hong Kong, the pressure can be imagined.

Zeng Xinquan coughed twice: "Director Liu, I don't know what Kyoto's opinion is on this?"

Liu Yunkai smiled: "The central government's attitude towards the SAR is the same, adhering to the basic line of Hong Kong people governing Hong Kong, and we will support all the decisions of the SAR government, and Secretary Zeng does not have any worries about this." ”

Liu Yunkai had just been transferred to the Ministry of Finance to take up the post of deputy director of the Department of Finance, and on his second day in office, he came to Xiangjiang to attend the meeting.

As a special envoy to Kyoto, Liu Yunkai adheres to the policy of listening more and talking less, and he is always smiling.

Zeng Xinquan's Mandarin is not bright: "Director Liu, Kyoto's opinion is very important, you have heard the report just now, in the past week, the Hong Kong dollar position has been enlarged by more than 10% compared with before, referring to the previous experience of Thailand and Indonesia, we have reason to believe that international travel capital is shifting to Hong Kong." If we do not do this properly, the prestige of the newly established SAR government will be greatly challenged, and this is something that Kyoto does not want to see. ”

Liu Yunkai said with a straight face: "My attitude just now is very clear, Kyoto will support all the decisions of the SAR government. Liu Yunkai deliberately accentuated the tone of the two words of support.

"In December last year, Kyoto had already issued an alarm to the then Xiangjiang government. It's a pity that Kashiwa Fuji didn't pay attention to it at the time, but today, I brought the internal reference that Kyoto sent to Kashiwa Fuji before, so you can take a look. Liu Yunkai motioned to his secretary to distribute the document to all the participants.

In this internal reference, the situation of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and even Korea and Dongying today is accurately predicted, and the methods of international speculators to create this crisis are accurately predicted. It also predicts the possible attacks on Xiangjiang, so you can take a look at it, and it may have some inspiration for you. ”

After Liu Yunkai finished speaking, he crossed his fingers on the table with both hands and looked at the people in Xiangjiang quietly.

Although Ren Zhigang, president of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, did not have anything on the surface, he was a little unimpressed when he heard Liu Yunkai's words. It sounds quite mysterious, but who doesn't know the level of the financial circles in the mainland? It can be said that it is impossible to find a practitioner or scholar with an international perspective, and what kind of in-depth things can be written in such a barren financial place?

It's nothing more than a bold prediction, and even if you guess this storm, it's just a blind cat touching a dead mouse.

Ren Zhigang roughly flipped through the two pages with a little disdain, and his face became more and more solemn.

This document was very different from what he had imagined.

There is no unfounded speculation in it, but detailed data on why these countries are experiencing financial crises, which is nothing, after all, Krugman has made similar statements, but not so clearly. But the most incredible thing is that the document accurately predicts the different tools and methods used by international speculators in various countries.

Three-dimensional speculative strategy, this is the strategic analysis of how international speculators attack Xiangjiang in the article.

International speculators first borrowed a large amount of Hong Kong dollars in the money market and sold them, forcing the SAR to sharply raise the money market interbank interest rate; the sharp rise in the money market interest rate caused the stock market to fall; at the same time, the Hang Seng stock index futures fell sharply in the derivative market; the sharp decline in the Hang Seng Index futures accelerated the decline of the stock market; and the decline in stocks sharply reduced foreign investors' confidence in the Hong Kong economy and the Hong Kong dollar, and they sold Hong Kong stocks one after another to exchange them for US dollars, thus putting the Hong Kong dollar under pressure from a new round of depreciation.

The ripple effect of the various markets eventually amplified the fruits of these speculators' victories across the board.

"If Xiangjiang encounters such a three-dimensional attack, how should I deal with it?" Ren Zhigang's forehead was dripping with cold sweat.

Raising the Interest Rate on Short-Term Loans? Ren Zhigang originally had a draft in mind, and if international speculators really regard Xiangjiang as their main battlefield, he only needs to raise the interest rate on short-term loans to raise the transaction costs of international speculators.

In this case, the other party will make less and less money in the foreign exchange market, until it is beyond its means, and after two or three rounds, the other party will not take advantage of it, so it will naturally retreat.

But the three-dimensional speculative strategy expounded in this internal reference has turned Ren Zhigang's plan into a joke.

It is true that raising the interest rate on short-term loans can indeed prevent international speculators from sweeping the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate, but Xiangjiang is the biggest piece of fat, and these international speculators will certainly not give up easily, and there may be countless attacks.

Under such circumstances, if international speculators abandon short-term lending and instead hoard Hong Kong dollars in advance, especially Hong Kong dollar bonds with an annual interest rate of about 10% for one to two years, then these Hong Kong dollars will become low-cost bargaining chips for international speculators to attack Hong Kong, and they can successfully circumvent the upward cost pressure brought about by short-term borrowing.

As an international financial centre, many international financial institutions issue Hong Kong dollar bonds in Hong Kong every year, and most of these Hong Kong dollar bonds are swapped against US dollars. As long as these international speculators buy a large number of forward US dollars to hedge risks, they will have the conditions to make three-dimensional profits in the foreign exchange market, stock market, and futures market, and moreover, they will make huge profits.

Zeng Xinquan's hands trembled, as a top student who graduated from Harvard, he naturally understood that if international speculators really adopted this offensive method, Xiangjiang would be subject to the status of an international financial center, and would have no power to fight back, so he could only let these hungry wolves bite off pieces of flesh and blood from their bodies again and again, until there were no bones left.

Zeng Xinquan froze: "Director Liu, who is the author of this article? ”

Liu Yunkai laughed twice: "There is a signature on it." ”

Zeng Xinquan turned the article back to the front page, and the author signed two Song Chinese - Zhang Chen.

(End of chapter)