The next LTCM?

Zhang Chen smiled dumbly.

"Mr. Chairman, I think you may have some misunderstanding about the Cowyce Fund. Zhang Chen smiled, but in his heart he was speculating about Greenspan's purpose of inviting him to this charity dinner, "The Cowyce Fund currently only cooperates with Goldman Sachs and Lehman in terms of financial leverage, and Cowys's leverage ratio is at the highest stage, and it does not exceed 15." So, you're overthinking. ”

Greenspan's long eyebrows trembled slightly, and obviously, what Zhang Chen said gave him a great shock: "No more than 15? Such a low leverage ratio, but it can create a return rate of more than 70%, which is very amazing, can you tell me how you did it?"

Zhang Chen smiled: "It's no different from other hedge funds, maybe we just chose the right investment strategy." Cowys' 1-3 funds, which are benchmarked against the Nasdaq-100 index, have made a lot of money in the previous period. But the Nasdaq has been falling for the past few weeks, and returns may indeed take a toll on this year's second-quarter returns. ”

Greenspan's eyes flickered, he knew that Zhang Chen was not completely telling the truth, at least he still did not give any answer on whether the profits of the lightning trade were included in the rate of return, which was very intriguing.

This kid is a little bit cautious when he was young.

Greenspan's eyes were blank: "That's a really amazing achievement, you just mentioned the NASDAQ, coming in the NASDAQ continues to be sluggish, a lot of people think the bubble is bursting, aren't you worried about this situation?"

Zhang Chen shrugged his shoulders: "Of course not, I believe that the current downturn on the NASDAQ is only temporary." I'll admit that in the eyes of many, the Nasdaq was crazy before, and the current crash is the beginning of the bubble bursting. Some people even pessimistically expect that a new round of global economic downturn is about to begin. But I believe that this is only a temporary correction, the result of a combination of the Fed's continuous interest rate hikes, Microsoft's antitrust investigation, and monetary tightening. If there is a slight change in the external environment, the Nasdaq will quickly return to the level it was before the crash and go all the way up, and anyone who asks me, sir, you should know that. ”

In the past nine or eight years, in order to deal with the risk of economic overheating caused by the soaring NASDAQ, Greenspan has raised interest rates twice in a row, and the interest rate policy + external environment has created the largest decline in the NASDAQ in three years.

From Zhang Chen's expression, you can see that he has a lot of resentment, which is in line with common sense, how can anyone lose money and be elated.

Greenspan didn't mind the little thorn in Zhang Chen's words, and said softly: "Whether it is raising interest rates or cutting interest rates, the Fed's goal is to maintain the steady development of the U.S. economy." In fact, in this day and age, it is impossible for the United States to remain unaffected and unaffected by the growing pressures on global growth. But as the Fed's top leader, maintaining market stability remains the highest goal. ”

Zhang Chen raised his eyebrows and said lightly: "Of course, I agree with you very much, and besides, the interest rate should be lowered soon, isn't it?"

Greenspan lowered his eyelids, not wanting anyone else to see the glint in his eyes, and after a long time, he looked up and asked, "Oh, why haven't I heard?"

Zhang Chen laughed: "Mr. Chairman, just like you just said, in today's era, it is impossible for the United States to be alone. The Asian financial crisis from Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, Korea, Dongying, Rakshasa 。。。。。。 The storm grew bigger and bigger, and finally passed from the LTCM to the United States. Although under your leadership, 15 financial institutions jointly financed the acquisition of LTCM, which solved the problem in the short term. But if we don't improve market liquidity, LTCM will still be a dead end, and all the efforts made so far will be useless like a tree without roots. ”

"If the Fed did not bail out the LTCM, it would still be able to look at this matter from an objective public perspective, but since the Fed chose to bail out, and the rescuers are the largest fifteen financial consortia in China, the Fed will certainly not sit idly by and watch the crisis occur, and interest rate cuts have become an inevitable choice. ”

Zhang Chen looked at Greenspan and seemed to smile: "Having come to this conclusion, there is only one remaining question - when to fall." ”

The corners of Zhang Chen's mouth curled slightly: "Mr. Chairman, why don't I make a bold guess - May, no, it should be June, after the FOCM meeting in June, the Federal Reserve will announce an interest rate cut, right?"

FOMC is the abbreviation of the Federal Open Market Committee, which is directly subordinate to the Federal Reserve and is equivalent to the Federal Reserve's Executive Committee. Every time the Fed has a big decision, it will definitely be discussed at the FOMC, and Greenspan is the current chairman of the FOMC.

Greenspan's ears twitched twice: "Haha, what a bold guess. But Mr. Zhang, let me remind you that if you have come to this conclusion and have already invested in it, then I can only wish you good luck. ”

Zhang Chen smiled and said, "My luck has always been very good. ”

Greenspan stared at Zhang Chen for a long time, but under Greenspan's calm expression, there were turbulent waves in his heart.

How did this young man know? Not even everyone in the committee knew about this, so how did Zhang Chen know?

Changes in any country's fiscal policy are extremely secretive. If the matter is not kept secret, there will inevitably be a large amount of speculative capital that will be deployed in advance and put its hands on it, and the significance of adjusting interest rates will be lost.

Greenspan pursed his lips and raised his glass to a drink: "What an unforgettable conversation." Mr. Zhang and Miss Tang, I wish you all a great time. ”

With that, Greenspan took Andrea by his arm and turned away, and as soon as he walked a few steps, someone surrounded him and chatted happily with the most powerful old man in the American financial world.

"Isn't it a little too aggressive?" Tang Miaomiao was a little worried, "Greenspan, aren't you worried that he will trouble you in the future?"

Zhang Chen's eyes stared at Greenspan's back, and the corners of his mouth curled slightly: "It's okay, don't worry, I have my own measure." ”

"What does Greenspan mean?" Tang Miaomiao frowned, "Could it be that he invited us over just to say such a few words to you?"

Tang Miaomiao wore Vera ang's customized dress today, and it was really shiny, attracting countless eyes around her, Zhang Chen was also a little surprised when she saw it, "Is the neckline of Vera ang's dress too big?"

Tang Miaomiao covered her mouth and smiled, threw a wink at Zhang Chen, and said proudly: "Hmph, I just want you to know that even if you don't keep your promise, I can find a better one in ten years." ”

(End of chapter)